FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $326.83

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $344.91 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $326.83 UNDERWATER $46.17 (12.4% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $344.91 (banked floor $319.61) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$22,350/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,375/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-21,713	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$11,175/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$22,350/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
7.2 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $344.91 (probe: $345C 15d) still earns $6,540/mo (29% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$31,054

Hole (after banked)

was $21,713 · 143% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$344.91 → $319.61

? 8 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 14 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 38 · %B 1 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $397.87 (+22%) · daily UBB $347.94 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $344.91 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $345 25 Sep 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $345)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$3,270

Income / mo

$6,540

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.81/sh now → $6.23 mid-life (likely $6.06–$8.99) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.18/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 851 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 15, at $348 (overshoots $3.06). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$345	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$1.45/sh	+$2,175 cycle +$5,445 [+$1,410…+$2,835] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$348	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.04/sh	+$65 cycle +$3,335 [-$951…+$510] · 35% credit	70% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$348	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.04/sh	+$65 cycle +$3,335 [-$951…+$510] · 35% credit	70% surv 58%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$353	2 Oct 2026	14d left	-$1.93/sh	-$2,890 cycle +$380 [-$4,528…-$2,779] · 3% credit	75% surv 68%
budget: banked $3,270 debit $2,890 (88% used ≈ 1.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$380 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $13,840/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $355 25 Sep 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $355)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,605

Income / mo

$3,210

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$353	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$1.99/sh	+$2,979 cycle +$4,584 [+$2,809…+$4,773] · 100% credit	65% surv 47%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$355	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$1.14/sh	+$1,706 cycle +$3,311 [+$1,412…+$3,314] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$358	2 Oct 2026	14d left	-$0.27/sh	-$406 cycle +$1,199 [-$1,038…+$986] · 42% credit	70% surv 58%
budget: banked $1,605 debit $406 (25% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,199 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $19,743/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $405 18 Sep 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $405)

100%

Touch odds

Per cycle

$60

Income / mo

$225

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$405	25 Sep 2026	11d left	+$0.07/sh	+$107 cycle +$167	66% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$408	2 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.46/sh	+$688 cycle +$748	70% surv 58%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.826 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$22,399 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,197

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$337.50	8d	18 Sep 2026	$2.11	15/15	$11,869	$11,869	77%	81%	+$3,559	-$7,948	7.3%	$-7,261 (vs do-nothing $-8,458)
$335	8d	18 Sep 2026	$2.71	11/15	$11,179	$11,451	71%	77%	+$2,817	-$7,918	7.2%	$-7,096 (vs do-nothing $-8,292)
$335	15d	25 Sep 2026	$4.50	13/15	$11,700	$11,836	67%	75%	+$2,812	-$7,031	6.4%	$-6,276 (vs do-nothing $-7,473)
$332.50	8d	18 Sep 2026	$3.40	9/15	$11,475	$11,883	66%	74%	+$2,244	-$8,108	7.4%	$-7,217 (vs do-nothing $-8,414)
$335	22d	2 Oct 2026	$6.20	14/15	$11,836	$11,904	65%	74%	+$2,801	-$5,192	4.7%	$-4,471 (vs do-nothing $-5,668)
$332.50	15d	25 Sep 2026	$5.25	11/15	$11,550	$11,822	62%	72%	+$2,286	-$7,874	7.2%	$-7,052 (vs do-nothing $-8,248)
$330	8d	18 Sep 2026	$4.35	7/15	$11,419	$11,963	59%	70%	+$1,954	-$7,391	6.7%	$-6,432 (vs do-nothing $-7,629)
$330	15d	25 Sep 2026	$6.40	9/15	$11,520	$11,928	58%	70%	+$2,255	-$7,658	7.0%	$-6,767 (vs do-nothing $-7,964)
$330	22d	2 Oct 2026	$8.30	10/15	$11,318	$11,658	57%	70%	+$2,339	-$6,608	6.0%	$-5,752 (vs do-nothing $-6,948)
$327.50	8d	18 Sep 2026	$5.55	6/15	$12,488	$13,100	53%	68%	+$2,118	-$7,115	6.5%	$-6,122 (vs do-nothing $-7,319)
$327.50	15d	25 Sep 2026	$7.45	8/15	$11,920	$12,396	53%	68%	+$1,939	-$7,967	7.3%	$-7,042 (vs do-nothing $-8,239)
$325	22d	2 Oct 2026	$10.50	8/15	$11,455	$11,931	48%	66%	+$1,696	-$7,527	6.9%	$-6,602 (vs do-nothing $-7,799)
$325	15d	25 Sep 2026	$8.65	7/15	$12,110	$12,654	47%	65%	+$1,627	-$7,881	7.2%	$-6,922 (vs do-nothing $-8,119)

Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$325	8d	18 Sep 2026	$6.60	5/15	$12,375	$13,055	46%	64%	+$1,232	-$6,654	6.1%	$-5,628 (vs do-nothing $-6,824)
$322.50	15d	25 Sep 2026	$9.95	6/15	$11,940	$12,552	42%	63%	+$1,261	-$7,475	6.8%	$-6,482 (vs do-nothing $-7,679)
$322.50	8d	18 Sep 2026	$8.00	4/15	$12,000	$12,748	39%	61%	+$761	-$5,763	5.3%	$-4,703 (vs do-nothing $-5,899)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-10 21:51