FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $335.87

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $344.70 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $335.87 UNDERWATER $37.13 (10.0% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $344.70 (banked floor $319.41) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$20,668/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $3,056/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-10,388	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$10,334/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$20,668/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.3 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
7.8 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $344.70 (probe: $345C 14d) still earns $11,089/mo (54% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$31,054

Hole (after banked)

was $10,388 · 299% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$344.70 → $319.41

? 8 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 24 (live) · RSI 49 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 40 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $397.23 (+18%) · daily UBB $346.12 · 1-wk expected move ±$13 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $344.70 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $345 25 Sep 2026 (14d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $345)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$5,175

Income / mo

$11,089

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$345	2 Oct 2026	14d left	+$1.47/sh	+$2,202 cycle +$7,377 [+$1,104…+$2,103] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$349	9 Oct 2026	21d left	+$1.75/sh	+$2,627 cycle +$7,802 [+$1,169…+$2,365] · 97% credit	71% surv 59%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$364	9 Oct 2026	21d left	-$2.91/sh	-$4,368 cycle +$807 [-$7,420…-$5,248] · 0% credit	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $5,175 debit $4,368 (84% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$807 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,728/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $347.50 18 Sep 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $347.50)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,085

Income / mo

$8,936

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.62/sh now → $3.98 mid-life (likely $3.85–$6.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 801 simulated challenges: the $348 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $350 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$348	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$1.91/sh	+$2,865 cycle +$4,950 [+$2,122…+$3,546] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$357	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$2.21/sh	+$3,311 cycle +$5,396 [+$1,827…+$3,848] · 93% credit	74% surv 66%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$362	9 Oct 2026	24d left	+$0.54/sh	+$806 cycle +$2,891 [-$1,090…+$1,129] · 47% credit	78% surv 72%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$352	25 Sep 2026	10d left	+$0.25/sh	+$371 cycle +$2,456 [-$811…+$770] · 43% credit	72% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$367	9 Oct 2026	24d left	-$0.80/sh	-$1,206 cycle +$879 [-$3,497…-$962] · 16% credit	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $2,085 debit $1,206 (58% used ≈ 0.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$879 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,949/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $365 2 Oct 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$2,250

Income / mo

$3,214

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$364	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$1.10/sh	+$1,652 cycle +$3,902 [+$1,256…+$3,297] · 100% credit	66% surv 49%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$365	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.68/sh	+$1,015 cycle +$3,265 [+$566…+$2,527] · 93% credit	67% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$369	9 Oct 2026	18d left	-$1.25/sh	-$1,869 cycle +$381 [-$2,734…-$792] · 13% credit	71% surv 59%
budget: banked $2,250 debit $1,869 (83% used ≈ 2.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$381 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $15,586/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (22 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.846 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$11,202 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,414

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$345	7d	18 Sep 2026	$1.94	13/15	$10,809	$10,980	76%	80%	+$3,252	-$0	0.0%	$3,416 (vs do-nothing +$2,002)
$342.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$2.54	10/15	$10,886	$11,314	70%	76%	+$2,741	-$0	0.0%	$1,357 (vs do-nothing $-57)
$345	14d	25 Sep 2026	$3.45	14/15	$10,350	$10,436	70%	77%	+$2,184	-$0	0.0%	$5,684 (vs do-nothing +$4,270)
$345	21d	2 Oct 2026	$5.05	15/15	$10,821	$10,821	67%	75%	+$2,246	-$0	0.0%	$8,389 (vs do-nothing +$6,975)
$342.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$4.45	11/15	$10,489	$10,832	65%	74%	+$2,364	-$0	0.0%	$3,452 (vs do-nothing +$2,038)
$345	28d	9 Oct 2026	$7.00	14/15	$10,500	$10,586	65%	74%	+$2,398	-$0	0.0%	$10,654 (vs do-nothing +$9,240)
$340	7d	18 Sep 2026	$3.30	8/15	$11,314	$11,914	63%	73%	+$2,304	-$1,118	1.0%	$-24 (vs do-nothing $-1,438)
$340	14d	25 Sep 2026	$5.25	10/15	$11,250	$11,679	60%	71%	+$1,983	-$0	0.0%	$1,567 (vs do-nothing +$153)
$340	21d	2 Oct 2026	$6.85	11/15	$10,764	$11,107	59%	70%	+$1,684	-$0	0.0%	$3,342 (vs do-nothing +$1,928)
$340	28d	9 Oct 2026	$8.90	11/15	$10,489	$10,832	58%	71%	+$2,309	-$0	0.0%	$5,597 (vs do-nothing +$4,183)
$337.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$4.05	6/15	$10,414	$11,186	56%	68%	+$1,177	-$1,888	1.7%	$-714 (vs do-nothing $-2,128)
$337.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$6.20	8/15	$10,629	$11,229	55%	68%	+$1,427	-$798	0.7%	$296 (vs do-nothing $-1,118)
$335	28d	9 Oct 2026	$11.25	9/15	$10,848	$11,362	50%	67%	+$1,948	-$0	0.0%	$2,452 (vs do-nothing +$1,038)

Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$335	21d	2 Oct 2026	$9.15	8/15	$10,457	$11,057	50%	66%	+$1,253	-$438	0.4%	$656 (vs do-nothing $-758)
$335	14d	25 Sep 2026	$7.30	7/15	$10,950	$11,636	49%	66%	+$1,077	-$1,678	1.5%	$-544 (vs do-nothing $-1,958)
$335	7d	18 Sep 2026	$5.40	5/15	$11,571	$12,429	48%	65%	+$1,239	-$2,149	2.0%	$-934 (vs do-nothing $-2,349)
$332.50	14d	25 Sep 2026	$8.65	6/15	$11,121	$11,893	44%	63%	+$874	-$2,128	1.9%	$-954 (vs do-nothing $-2,368)
$330	28d	9 Oct 2026	$13.65	8/15	$11,700	$12,300	42%	64%	+$1,441	-$838	0.8%	$256 (vs do-nothing $-1,158)
$330	21d	2 Oct 2026	$11.85	7/15	$11,850	$12,536	41%	63%	+$1,001	-$1,993	1.8%	$-859 (vs do-nothing $-2,273)
$332.50	7d	18 Sep 2026	$6.65	4/15	$11,400	$12,343	41%	62%	+$619	-$2,219	2.0%	$-965 (vs do-nothing $-2,379)
$330	14d	25 Sep 2026	$10.55	5/15	$11,304	$12,161	38%	62%	+$1,097	-$2,074	1.9%	$-859 (vs do-nothing $-2,274)
$330	7d	18 Sep 2026	$8.00	4/15	$13,714	$14,657	33%	59%	+$81	-$2,679	2.4%	$-1,425 (vs do-nothing $-2,839)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-11 22:01