FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $341.65

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $345.22 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $341.65 UNDERWATER $31.35 (8.4% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $345.22 (banked floor $319.98) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$29,045/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,901/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-3,825	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$14,523/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$29,045/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.8 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
5.6 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $345.22 (probe: $345C 11d) still earns $24,341/mo (84% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$31,054

Hole (after banked)

was $3,825 · 812% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$345.22 → $319.98

? 8 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 33 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 72 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $393.88 (+15%) · daily UBB $346.53 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $345.22 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $355 9 Oct 2026 (25d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $355)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$8,475

Income / mo

$10,170

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $352.50 18 Sep 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$2,340

Income / mo

$17,550

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.65/sh now → $3.99 mid-life (likely $4.05–$6.96) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.56/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 759 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $356 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$352	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$2.76/sh	+$4,141 cycle +$6,481 [+$3,226…+$5,085] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$366	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$1.12/sh	+$1,682 cycle +$4,022 [-$706…+$2,161] · 63% credit	78% surv 71%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$358	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$0.10/sh	+$148 cycle +$2,488 [-$1,661…+$530] · 33% credit	74% surv 65%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$376	9 Oct 2026	23d left	-$1.34/sh	-$2,006 cycle +$334 [-$5,238…-$1,917] · 5% credit	85% surv 82%
budget: banked $2,340 debit $2,006 (86% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$334 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,194/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $357.50 18 Sep 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $357.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,275

Income / mo

$9,562

Buyback gross: $5.73/sh now → $4.05 mid-life (likely $3.57–$6.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 341 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $361 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$358	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$2.66/sh	+$3,989 cycle +$5,264 [+$3,511…+$5,114] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$361	25 Sep 2026	9d left	+$1.06/sh	+$1,583 cycle +$2,858 [+$534…+$2,520] · 84% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$371	9 Oct 2026	23d left	+$1.00/sh	+$1,495 cycle +$2,770 [-$504…+$2,449] · 67% credit	78% surv 71%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$376	9 Oct 2026	23d left	-$0.15/sh	-$220 cycle +$1,055 [-$2,705…+$659] · 33% credit	81% surv 77%
budget: banked $1,275 debit $220 (17% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,055 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $7,634/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.855 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,573 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,468

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$1.56	13/15	$15,210	$15,472	82%	85%	+$7,310	-$0	0.0%	$2,872 (vs do-nothing +$1,404)
$350	4d	18 Sep 2026	$2.11	10/15	$15,825	$16,480	76%	81%	+$6,609	-$0	0.0%	$3,098 (vs do-nothing +$1,630)
$347.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$2.85	7/15	$14,962	$16,010	69%	77%	+$5,451	-$0	0.0%	$3,127 (vs do-nothing +$1,659)
$350	11d	25 Sep 2026	$4.20	13/15	$14,891	$15,153	69%	77%	+$5,117	-$0	0.0%	$6,304 (vs do-nothing +$4,836)
$347.50	11d	25 Sep 2026	$4.85	11/15	$14,550	$15,074	64%	74%	+$3,873	-$0	0.0%	$6,275 (vs do-nothing +$4,807)
$345	4d	18 Sep 2026	$3.70	6/15	$16,650	$17,828	62%	73%	+$4,999	-$0	0.0%	$3,270 (vs do-nothing +$1,803)
$347.50	18d	2 Oct 2026	$6.65	14/15	$15,517	$15,648	61%	72%	+$3,360	-$0	0.0%	$10,106 (vs do-nothing +$8,638)
$345	11d	25 Sep 2026	$5.95	9/15	$14,605	$15,390	59%	71%	+$3,696	-$0	0.0%	$6,197 (vs do-nothing +$4,729)
$345	18d	2 Oct 2026	$7.80	12/15	$15,600	$15,993	57%	70%	+$3,210	-$0	0.0%	$9,993 (vs do-nothing +$8,525)
$345	25d	9 Oct 2026	$9.65	13/15	$15,054	$15,316	57%	71%	+$3,806	-$0	0.0%	$13,109 (vs do-nothing +$11,641)
$342.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$4.85	4/15	$14,550	$15,990	54%	69%	+$3,721	-$0	0.0%	$2,130 (vs do-nothing +$662)
$342.50	11d	25 Sep 2026	$7.10	8/15	$15,491	$16,407	53%	69%	+$3,357	-$0	0.0%	$4,591 (vs do-nothing +$3,124)
$342.50	18d	2 Oct 2026	$8.95	10/15	$14,917	$15,571	53%	69%	+$2,870	-$0	0.0%	$7,222 (vs do-nothing +$5,754)

Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$340	25d	9 Oct 2026	$11.90	11/15	$15,708	$16,232	49%	67%	+$2,885	-$0	0.0%	$8,293 (vs do-nothing +$6,825)
$340	18d	2 Oct 2026	$10.30	9/15	$15,450	$16,235	48%	67%	+$2,781	-$0	0.0%	$5,612 (vs do-nothing +$4,144)
$340	11d	25 Sep 2026	$8.45	7/15	$16,132	$17,179	47%	66%	+$3,048	-$0	0.0%	$3,396 (vs do-nothing +$1,928)
$340	4d	18 Sep 2026	$6.15	4/15	$18,450	$19,890	45%	66%	+$3,721	-$0	0.0%	$1,650 (vs do-nothing +$182)
$337.50	18d	2 Oct 2026	$11.60	8/15	$15,467	$16,383	44%	65%	+$2,285	-$0	0.0%	$4,191 (vs do-nothing +$2,724)
$337.50	11d	25 Sep 2026	$9.85	6/15	$16,118	$17,296	42%	64%	+$2,536	-$0	0.0%	$2,460 (vs do-nothing +$993)
$335	25d	9 Oct 2026	$14.95	9/15	$16,146	$16,931	41%	64%	+$2,557	-$0	0.0%	$5,297 (vs do-nothing +$3,829)
$335	18d	2 Oct 2026	$13.30	7/15	$15,517	$16,564	40%	63%	+$2,268	-$0	0.0%	$3,291 (vs do-nothing +$1,823)
$337.50	4d	18 Sep 2026	$7.70	3/15	$17,325	$18,896	37%	63%	+$2,770	-$5	0.0%	$1,319 (vs do-nothing $-149)
$335	11d	25 Sep 2026	$11.40	5/15	$15,545	$16,855	37%	62%	+$1,953	-$0	0.0%	$1,820 (vs do-nothing +$352)
$335	4d	18 Sep 2026	$9.45	3/15	$21,262	$22,833	30%	60%	+$2,713	-$230	0.2%	$1,094 (vs do-nothing $-374)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-14 21:51