FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $343.27

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $345.38 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $343.27 UNDERWATER $29.73 (8.0% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $345.38 (banked floor $320.17) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$22,050/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,866/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-1,988	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$11,025/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$22,050/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
5.0 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
7.3 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $345.38 (probe: $345C 17d) still earns $21,044/mo (95% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$31,054

Hole (after banked)

was $1,988 · 1562% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$345.38 → $320.17

? 8 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 35 (live) · RSI 52 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 53 · %B 76 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $393.84 (+15%) · daily UBB $347.91 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $345.38 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $355 2 Oct 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $355)

71%

Touch odds

59%

Per cycle

$6,525

Income / mo

$11,515

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.66/sh now → $6.83 mid-life (likely $7.68–$10.55) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.48/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,482 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 17, at $358 (overshoots $3.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$355	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$1.50/sh	+$2,256 cycle +$8,781 [+$1,123…+$2,326] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$357	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.65/sh	+$972 cycle +$7,497 [-$318…+$868] · 57% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$357	9 Oct 2026	16d left	+$0.65/sh	+$972 cycle +$7,497 [-$318…+$868] · 57% credit	68% surv 54%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$372	9 Oct 2026	16d left	-$4.29/sh	-$6,433 cycle +$92 [-$9,501…-$7,237]	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $6,525 debit $6,433 (99% used ≈ 2.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$92 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $7,154/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $352.50 18 Sep 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)

80%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,845

Income / mo

$18,450

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.50/sh now → $3.18 mid-life (likely $3.64–$6.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.23/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 747 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $356 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$352	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$2.91/sh	+$4,363 cycle +$6,208 [+$3,548…+$4,839] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$364	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$2.07/sh	+$3,106 cycle +$4,951 [+$863…+$3,178] · 84% credit	76% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$369	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.70/sh	+$1,053 cycle +$2,898 [-$1,635…+$930] · 47% credit	80% surv 76%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$359	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.21/sh	+$320 cycle +$2,165 [-$1,642…+$268] · 31% credit	76% surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$379	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$1.00/sh	-$1,502 cycle +$343 [-$4,866…-$1,906] · 2% credit	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $1,845 debit $1,502 (81% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$343 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,466/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $357.50 18 Sep 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $357.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$915

Income / mo

$9,150

Buyback gross: $4.57/sh now → $3.23 mid-life (likely $3.01–$5.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.62/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 326 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $361 (overshoots $3.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$358	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$2.82/sh	+$4,234 cycle +$5,149 [+$3,876…+$4,843] · 100% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$369	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.97/sh	+$2,949 cycle +$3,864 [+$1,516…+$3,470] · 88% credit	76% surv 69%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$374	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.60/sh	+$902 cycle +$1,817 [-$900…+$1,382] · 58% credit	80% surv 76%
reaches SS ✓
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$364	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.13/sh	+$194 cycle +$1,109 [-$1,064…+$622] · 48% credit	76% surv 68%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$379	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.49/sh	-$737 cycle +$178 [-$2,909…-$327] · 14% credit	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $915 debit $737 (81% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$178 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,601/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.866 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$2,738 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,350

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$355	3d	18 Sep 2026	$0.87	13/15	$11,310	$11,550	86%	87%	+$4,834	-$0	0.0%	$1,961 (vs do-nothing +$611)
$352.50	3d	18 Sep 2026	$1.23	9/15	$11,070	$11,790	80%	83%	+$3,991	-$0	0.0%	$2,097 (vs do-nothing +$747)
$355	10d	25 Sep 2026	$2.59	15/15	$11,655	$11,655	76%	81%	+$3,893	-$0	0.0%	$4,635 (vs do-nothing +$3,285)
$350	3d	18 Sep 2026	$1.75	7/15	$12,250	$13,210	74%	79%	+$3,757	-$0	0.0%	$2,295 (vs do-nothing +$945)
$352.50	10d	25 Sep 2026	$3.20	12/15	$11,520	$11,880	72%	78%	+$3,338	-$0	0.0%	$4,710 (vs do-nothing +$3,360)
$355	17d	2 Oct 2026	$4.35	15/15	$11,515	$11,515	71%	78%	+$3,300	-$0	0.0%	$7,275 (vs do-nothing +$5,925)
$352.50	17d	2 Oct 2026	$4.95	13/15	$11,356	$11,596	67%	75%	+$2,656	-$0	0.0%	$7,265 (vs do-nothing +$5,915)
$350	10d	25 Sep 2026	$3.95	10/15	$11,850	$12,450	66%	75%	+$2,965	-$0	0.0%	$4,900 (vs do-nothing +$3,550)
$347.50	3d	18 Sep 2026	$2.46	5/15	$12,300	$13,500	66%	74%	+$3,037	-$0	0.0%	$2,380 (vs do-nothing +$1,030)
$350	17d	2 Oct 2026	$5.85	11/15	$11,356	$11,836	63%	73%	+$2,429	-$0	0.0%	$7,345 (vs do-nothing +$5,995)
$350	24d	9 Oct 2026	$7.65	12/15	$11,475	$11,835	62%	72%	+$2,530	-$0	0.0%	$10,050 (vs do-nothing +$8,700)
$347.50	10d	25 Sep 2026	$4.85	8/15	$11,640	$12,480	61%	72%	+$2,495	-$0	0.0%	$4,910 (vs do-nothing +$3,560)
$347.50	17d	2 Oct 2026	$6.85	10/15	$12,088	$12,688	59%	71%	+$2,326	-$0	0.0%	$7,800 (vs do-nothing +$6,450)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$345	3d	18 Sep 2026	$3.35	4/15	$13,400	$14,720	57%	70%	+$2,367	-$0	0.0%	$2,379 (vs do-nothing +$1,029)
$345	10d	25 Sep 2026	$5.85	7/15	$12,285	$13,245	55%	69%	+$2,134	-$0	0.0%	$4,901 (vs do-nothing +$3,551)
$345	17d	2 Oct 2026	$7.95	8/15	$11,224	$12,064	54%	68%	+$1,906	-$0	0.0%	$7,088 (vs do-nothing +$5,738)
$345	24d	9 Oct 2026	$9.65	10/15	$12,062	$12,662	54%	68%	+$2,025	-$0	0.0%	$10,223 (vs do-nothing +$8,872)
$342.50	17d	2 Oct 2026	$9.10	7/15	$11,241	$12,201	50%	66%	+$1,598	-$0	0.0%	$5,426 (vs do-nothing +$4,076)
$342.50	10d	25 Sep 2026	$7.05	6/15	$12,690	$13,770	49%	66%	+$1,815	-$0	0.0%	$3,614 (vs do-nothing +$2,263)
$342.50	3d	18 Sep 2026	$4.50	3/15	$13,500	$14,940	48%	65%	+$1,747	-$0	0.0%	$1,717 (vs do-nothing +$367)
$340	24d	9 Oct 2026	$12.15	8/15	$12,150	$12,990	46%	65%	+$1,615	-$0	0.0%	$6,448 (vs do-nothing +$5,098)
$340	17d	2 Oct 2026	$10.45	6/15	$11,065	$12,145	45%	64%	+$1,374	-$0	0.0%	$4,154 (vs do-nothing +$2,803)
$340	10d	25 Sep 2026	$8.40	5/15	$12,600	$13,800	43%	64%	+$1,448	-$0	0.0%	$2,662 (vs do-nothing +$1,311)
$337.50	17d	2 Oct 2026	$11.90	6/15	$12,600	$13,680	41%	63%	+$1,336	-$0	0.0%	$3,524 (vs do-nothing +$2,173)
$340	3d	18 Sep 2026	$5.95	2/15	$11,900	$13,460	38%	61%	+$1,025	-$0	0.0%	$1,385 (vs do-nothing +$34)
$337.50	10d	25 Sep 2026	$9.95	4/15	$11,940	$13,260	37%	61%	+$1,129	-$0	0.0%	$2,019 (vs do-nothing +$669)
$337.50	3d	18 Sep 2026	$7.60	2/15	$15,200	$16,760	30%	58%	+$708	-$56	0.1%	$1,215 (vs do-nothing $-136)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-15 21:51