FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $340.99

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $345.76 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $340.99 UNDERWATER $32.01 (8.6% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $345.76 (banked floor $320.62) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$23,512/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,863/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-5,363	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$11,756/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$23,512/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.7 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $345.76 (probe: $345C 16d) still earns $18,281/mo (78% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$31,054

Hole (after banked)

was $5,363 · 579% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$345.76 → $320.62

? 8 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 33 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 52 · %B 66 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $393.87 (+16%) · daily UBB $347.26 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $345.76 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $347.50 2 Oct 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $347.50)

64%

Touch odds

74%

Per cycle

$8,325

Income / mo

$15,609

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$347	9 Oct 2026	15d left	+$2.11/sh	+$3,167 cycle +$11,492 [+$1,884…+$2,716] · 100% credit	66% surv 49%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$348	9 Oct 2026	15d left	+$1.60/sh	+$2,398 cycle +$10,723 [+$1,033…+$1,875] · 99% credit	67% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$372	9 Oct 2026	15d left	-$5.33/sh	-$8,001 cycle +$324 [-$12,273…-$9,783]	89% surv 88%
budget: banked $8,325 debit $8,001 (96% used ≈ 2.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$324 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $4,312/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $350 18 Sep 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $350)

85%

Touch odds

31%

Per cycle

$1,470

Income / mo

$22,050

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $4.37/sh now → $3.09 mid-life (likely $3.42–$6.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.11/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 540 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $353 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$350	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$3.18/sh	+$4,771 cycle +$6,241 [+$3,542…+$4,825] · 97% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$364	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.32/sh	+$1,978 cycle +$3,448 [-$1,064…+$1,759] · 62% credit	78% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$357	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.25/sh	+$376 cycle +$1,846 [-$2,207…+$167] · 32% credit	75% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$369	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.15/sh	+$224 cycle +$1,694 [-$3,232…-$69] · 23% credit	82% surv 79%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$374	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.55/sh	-$831 cycle +$639 [-$4,541…-$1,171] · 4% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $1,470 debit $831 (57% used ≈ 0.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$639 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,191/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $352.50 18 Sep 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$990

Income / mo

$14,850

Buyback gross: $4.40/sh now → $3.11 mid-life (likely $3.14–$6.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 291 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $356 (overshoots $3.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$352	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$3.14/sh	+$4,706 cycle +$5,696 [+$3,522…+$5,083] · 96% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$367	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$1.27/sh	+$1,900 cycle +$2,890 [-$1,137…+$1,951] · 64% credit	78% surv 73%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$359	25 Sep 2026	8d left	+$0.21/sh	+$314 cycle +$1,304 [-$2,176…+$309] · 34% credit	75% surv 68%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$372	9 Oct 2026	22d left	+$0.10/sh	+$151 cycle +$1,141 [-$3,304…+$143] · 30% credit	82% surv 79%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$377	9 Oct 2026	22d left	-$0.60/sh	-$900 cycle +$90 [-$4,600…-$909] · 6% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $990 debit $900 (91% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$90 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $5,142/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.861 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,161 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,939

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	2d	18 Sep 2026	$0.66	12/15	$11,880	$12,308	90%	91%	+$7,738	-$0	0.0%	$1,819 (vs do-nothing $-120)
$350	2d	18 Sep 2026	$0.98	8/15	$11,760	$12,758	85%	87%	+$6,546	-$0	0.0%	$2,115 (vs do-nothing +$176)
$347.50	2d	18 Sep 2026	$1.49	6/15	$13,410	$14,692	77%	82%	+$6,169	-$0	0.0%	$2,377 (vs do-nothing +$438)
$352.50	9d	25 Sep 2026	$2.48	15/15	$12,400	$12,400	77%	82%	+$4,793	-$0	0.0%	$4,519 (vs do-nothing +$2,580)
$350	9d	25 Sep 2026	$3.00	12/15	$12,000	$12,428	72%	78%	+$3,820	-$0	0.0%	$4,627 (vs do-nothing +$2,688)
$345	2d	18 Sep 2026	$2.28	4/15	$13,680	$15,247	71%	80%	+$7,612	-$0	0.0%	$2,243 (vs do-nothing +$304)
$350	16d	2 Oct 2026	$4.65	14/15	$12,206	$12,349	68%	76%	+$3,280	-$0	0.0%	$7,385 (vs do-nothing +$5,446)
$347.50	9d	25 Sep 2026	$3.75	10/15	$12,500	$13,212	67%	75%	+$3,446	-$0	0.0%	$4,929 (vs do-nothing +$2,990)
$350	23d	9 Oct 2026	$6.55	14/15	$11,961	$12,103	65%	74%	+$3,240	-$0	0.0%	$10,045 (vs do-nothing +$8,106)
$347.50	16d	2 Oct 2026	$5.55	12/15	$12,488	$12,915	64%	74%	+$3,102	-$0	0.0%	$7,687 (vs do-nothing +$5,748)
$345	9d	25 Sep 2026	$4.95	8/15	$13,200	$14,198	61%	73%	+$3,716	-$0	0.0%	$4,682 (vs do-nothing +$2,743)
$345	16d	2 Oct 2026	$6.50	10/15	$12,188	$12,900	59%	71%	+$2,218	-$0	0.0%	$6,918 (vs do-nothing +$4,979)
$345	23d	9 Oct 2026	$8.40	11/15	$12,052	$12,622	58%	71%	+$2,576	-$0	0.0%	$9,506 (vs do-nothing +$7,567)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$342.50	2d	18 Sep 2026	$3.30	3/15	$14,850	$16,560	58%	72%	+$5,000	-$0	0.0%	$1,723 (vs do-nothing $-216)
$342.50	9d	25 Sep 2026	$6.00	6/15	$12,000	$13,282	55%	69%	+$2,833	-$0	0.0%	$3,126 (vs do-nothing +$1,188)
$342.50	16d	2 Oct 2026	$7.65	9/15	$12,909	$13,764	54%	69%	+$2,129	-$0	0.0%	$5,205 (vs do-nothing +$3,266)
$340	23d	9 Oct 2026	$10.95	9/15	$12,854	$13,709	50%	67%	+$2,398	-$0	0.0%	$5,925 (vs do-nothing +$3,986)
$340	16d	2 Oct 2026	$9.35	7/15	$12,272	$13,412	49%	67%	+$2,300	-$0	0.0%	$3,919 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$340	9d	25 Sep 2026	$7.20	5/15	$12,000	$13,425	48%	67%	+$2,322	-$0	0.0%	$2,279 (vs do-nothing +$340)
$340	2d	18 Sep 2026	$4.50	2/15	$13,500	$15,352	46%	67%	+$3,244	-$252	0.2%	$1,535 (vs do-nothing $-404)
$337.50	16d	2 Oct 2026	$10.40	7/15	$13,650	$14,790	45%	65%	+$1,906	-$0	0.0%	$2,904 (vs do-nothing +$965)
$337.50	9d	25 Sep 2026	$8.55	5/15	$14,250	$15,675	42%	64%	+$2,203	-$0	0.0%	$1,704 (vs do-nothing $-235)
$335	23d	9 Oct 2026	$13.75	7/15	$12,554	$13,694	42%	64%	+$1,868	-$0	0.0%	$3,499 (vs do-nothing +$1,560)
$335	16d	2 Oct 2026	$11.90	6/15	$13,388	$14,670	40%	63%	+$1,640	-$0	0.0%	$2,166 (vs do-nothing +$228)
$335	9d	25 Sep 2026	$10.15	4/15	$13,533	$15,101	36%	62%	+$1,746	-$244	0.2%	$1,391 (vs do-nothing $-548)
$337.50	2d	18 Sep 2026	$6.20	2/15	$18,600	$20,452	35%	63%	+$3,575	-$412	0.4%	$1,375 (vs do-nothing $-564)
$335	2d	18 Sep 2026	$7.85	1/15	$11,775	$13,770	25%	60%	+$1,477	-$291	0.3%	$1,572 (vs do-nothing $-367)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-16 21:50