FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC300 @ $342.39

BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $346.06 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC300 @ $342.39 UNDERWATER $30.61 (8.2% below BE SS)

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $373.00 | CC-SS: $346.06 (banked floor $320.93) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $300 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $90.498/sh)

SP: $345 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $57.446/sh)

HP: $310 exp 2028-01-21 (entry $39.964/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$162,000	(ND $73.00 + SW $35) x 1500
Normal income ref	$22,800/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,855/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-3,975	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$11,400/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$22,800/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
4.8 mo to earn back $109,500

ML VELOCITY
7.1 mo to earn back $162,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $346.06 (probe: $345C 15d) still earns $19,800/mo (87% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$31,054

Hole (after banked)

was $3,975 · 781% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$346.06 → $320.93

? 8 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 34 (live) · RSI 51 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 56 · %B 72 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $393.86 (+15%) · daily UBB $347.65 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-10-28: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $346.06 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $352.50 2 Oct 2026 (15d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)

70%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$5,850

Income / mo

$11,700

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.55/sh now → $6.05 mid-life (likely $6.93–$9.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,523 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 15, at $356 (overshoots $3.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$352	9 Oct 2026	14d left	+$1.55/sh	+$2,327 cycle +$8,177 [+$1,242…+$2,268] · 100% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$355	9 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.38/sh	+$572 cycle +$6,422 [-$740…+$310] · 35% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$355	9 Oct 2026	14d left	+$0.38/sh	+$572 cycle +$6,422 [-$740…+$310] · 35% credit	69% surv 56%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$365	9 Oct 2026	14d left	-$2.97/sh	-$4,448 cycle +$1,402 [-$6,896…-$5,181]	79% surv 75%
budget: banked $5,850 debit $4,448 (76% used ≈ 1.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,402 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $9,905/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $355 25 Sep 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $355)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$2,460

Income / mo

$9,225

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $6.17/sh now → $4.37 mid-life (likely $4.51–$6.87) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.64/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 846 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $358 (overshoots $3.11). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$355	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$2.09/sh	+$3,130 cycle +$5,590 [+$2,379…+$3,616] · 100% credit	66% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$358	2 Oct 2026	11d left	+$1.02/sh	+$1,527 cycle +$3,987 [+$539…+$1,800] · 90% credit	69% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$363	9 Oct 2026	18d left	+$0.98/sh	+$1,466 cycle +$3,926 [-$34…+$1,673] · 74% credit	73% surv 65%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$365	2 Oct 2026	11d left	-$1.53/sh	-$2,292 cycle +$168 [-$4,186…-$2,384] · 2% credit	78% surv 73%
budget: banked $2,460 debit $2,292 (93% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$168 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $11,609/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $370 2 Oct 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,410

Income / mo

$2,820

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$368	9 Oct 2026	14d left	+$2.16/sh	+$3,240 cycle +$4,650 [+$3,084…+$4,848] · 100% credit	64% surv 46%
SS $373 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	9 Oct 2026	14d left	+$1.04/sh	+$1,566 cycle +$2,976 [+$1,191…+$2,852] · 99% credit	66% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$373	9 Oct 2026	14d left	-$0.13/sh	-$190 cycle +$1,220 [-$813…+$853] · 45% credit	69% surv 57%
budget: banked $1,410 debit $190 (13% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$1,220 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $19,994/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.861 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$4,738 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,828

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	8d	25 Sep 2026	$2.15	15/15	$12,094	$12,094	75%	80%	+$3,144	-$0	0.0%	$3,988 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$350	8d	25 Sep 2026	$2.77	11/15	$11,426	$11,994	70%	76%	+$2,501	-$0	0.0%	$4,094 (vs do-nothing +$2,266)
$352.50	15d	2 Oct 2026	$3.90	15/15	$11,700	$11,700	70%	77%	+$2,630	-$0	0.0%	$6,613 (vs do-nothing +$4,785)
$350	15d	2 Oct 2026	$4.65	13/15	$12,090	$12,374	66%	74%	+$2,355	-$0	0.0%	$6,950 (vs do-nothing +$5,122)
$347.50	8d	25 Sep 2026	$3.40	9/15	$11,475	$12,327	64%	73%	+$1,689	-$0	0.0%	$4,249 (vs do-nothing +$2,421)
$350	22d	9 Oct 2026	$6.35	14/15	$12,123	$12,265	64%	73%	+$2,448	-$0	0.0%	$9,724 (vs do-nothing +$7,896)
$347.50	15d	2 Oct 2026	$5.45	11/15	$11,990	$12,558	61%	71%	+$1,871	-$0	0.0%	$7,042 (vs do-nothing +$5,214)
$345	8d	25 Sep 2026	$4.55	7/15	$11,944	$13,080	58%	69%	+$1,918	-$0	0.0%	$3,775 (vs do-nothing +$1,947)
$345	15d	2 Oct 2026	$6.60	9/15	$11,880	$12,732	56%	69%	+$1,801	-$0	0.0%	$6,176 (vs do-nothing +$4,349)
$345	22d	9 Oct 2026	$8.30	11/15	$12,450	$13,018	56%	69%	+$1,831	-$0	0.0%	$9,012 (vs do-nothing +$7,185)
$342.50	15d	2 Oct 2026	$7.60	8/15	$12,160	$13,154	51%	66%	+$1,359	-$0	0.0%	$4,493 (vs do-nothing +$2,665)
$342.50	8d	25 Sep 2026	$5.35	6/15	$12,038	$13,316	51%	66%	+$948	-$0	0.0%	$2,477 (vs do-nothing +$649)
$340	22d	9 Oct 2026	$10.55	8/15	$11,509	$12,503	48%	65%	+$1,136	-$0	0.0%	$4,853 (vs do-nothing +$3,025)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$340	15d	2 Oct 2026	$8.90	7/15	$12,460	$13,596	46%	64%	+$1,179	-$0	0.0%	$3,320 (vs do-nothing +$1,492)
$340	8d	25 Sep 2026	$6.65	5/15	$12,469	$13,889	44%	63%	+$740	-$0	0.0%	$1,768 (vs do-nothing $-59)
$337.50	15d	2 Oct 2026	$10.20	6/15	$12,240	$13,518	42%	62%	+$818	-$0	0.0%	$2,387 (vs do-nothing +$559)
$337.50	8d	25 Sep 2026	$8.00	4/15	$12,000	$13,562	38%	60%	+$314	-$223	0.2%	$1,320 (vs do-nothing $-507)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.3 | 2026-09-17 21:49