15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $336.41 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782, Main:1299
| Max Loss | $123,750 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $37,704/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $0/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $16,913 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 14 × $360 | 67% | $20,100 | $5,763 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $375 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.0% | 91% | 19% | $1,125 | $4,821 | -$15,279 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $375 6.0% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.80 mid) = $1,125 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,821/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $375.81) 91% EV / mo +$2,298 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,991 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.71/sh now → $4.74 mid-life (likely $3.93–$6.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 346 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $378 (overshoots $3.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $336.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.19/sh (~25% of the $0.75 collected) or spot ≥ $375.81 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $16,913 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,910, the opportunity cost of earning $4,821/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.2% | 77% | 46% | $2,926 | $12,540 | -$7,560 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $365 3.2% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.17 mid) = $2,926 credit for the 7d cycle → $12,540/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $367.17) 81% EV / mo +$3,919 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,539 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.53/sh now → $4.62 mid-life (likely $4.88–$7.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,022 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.26). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $336.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot ≥ $367.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $365): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,107 (+$194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,716, the opportunity cost of earning $12,540/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 67% | 52% | $4,690 | $20,100 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $360 1.8% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.53 mid) = $4,690 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $363.52) 75% EV / mo +$4,407 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,686 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $394 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.44/sh now → $4.55 mid-life (likely $5.54–$8.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,574 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $336.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $363.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $360): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,107 (+$194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,716, the opportunity cost of earning $20,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 14 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.3% | 48% | 99+% | $9,100 | $39,000 | +$18,900 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $352.50 0.3% ITM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.72 mid) = $9,100 credit for the 7d cycle → $39,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 48% Breach risk 52% POP (stays ≤ $359.23) 65% EV / mo +$4,667 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,857 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $388 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $336.41: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $359.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $336.41, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $352.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,107 (+$194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,716, the opportunity cost of earning $39,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.745 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $19,823
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 15/15 | $19,768 | $19,768 | 71% | 77% | +$4,927 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,138 (vs do-nothing +$6,315) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 13/15 | $18,943 | $19,774 | 68% | 76% | +$4,168 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,141 (vs do-nothing +$6,318) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 14/15 | $20,100 | $20,516 | 67% | 75% | +$4,407 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,797 (vs do-nothing +$1,974) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 12/15 | $19,543 | $20,790 | 66% | 74% | +$3,935 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,615 (vs do-nothing +$6,792) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.50 | 14/15 | $19,000 | $19,416 | 64% | 73% | +$3,834 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,407 (vs do-nothing +$10,584) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 11/15 | $19,918 | $21,581 | 63% | 72% | +$3,607 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,984 (vs do-nothing +$7,161) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 11/15 | $20,036 | $21,699 | 61% | 71% | +$3,751 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,364 (vs do-nothing +$2,541) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.50 | 12/15 | $19,714 | $20,961 | 59% | 71% | +$3,521 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,295 (vs do-nothing +$11,472) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 9/15 | $20,057 | $22,551 | 57% | 69% | +$2,918 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,437 (vs do-nothing +$7,614) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 9/15 | $20,443 | $22,937 | 54% | 68% | +$3,139 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,847 (vs do-nothing +$3,024) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 10/15 | $19,571 | $21,650 | 53% | 68% | +$2,959 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,583 (vs do-nothing +$11,760) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 8/15 | $20,229 | $23,139 | 53% | 68% | +$3,068 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,711 (vs do-nothing +$7,888) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.90 | 7/15 | $19,350 | $22,676 | 50% | 67% | +$2,506 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,495 (vs do-nothing +$7,672) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.20 | 9/15 | $20,829 | $23,323 | 48% | 66% | +$2,646 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,657 (vs do-nothing +$12,834) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 7/15 | $19,500 | $22,826 | 48% | 65% | +$2,333 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,015 (vs do-nothing +$3,192) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.25 | 7/15 | $21,375 | $24,701 | 47% | 65% | +$2,559 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,440 (vs do-nothing +$8,617) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.40 | 6/15 | $19,800 | $23,541 | 44% | 64% | +$1,857 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,899 (vs do-nothing +$8,076) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 5/15 | $20,143 | $24,300 | 35% | 60% | +$1,282 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,553 (vs do-nothing +$3,730) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.