15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $335.73 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782, Main:1299
| Max Loss | $123,750 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $38,829/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $0/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $16,913 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 14 × $360 | 68% | $20,400 | $6,272 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $375 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.2% | 91% | 18% | $1,065 | $4,564 | -$15,836 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $375 6.2% OTM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $0.75 mid) = $1,065 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,564/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $375.75) 92% EV / mo +$2,349 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$6,279 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $397 @ 80% POP 75% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.92/sh now → $4.90 mid-life (likely $3.95–$7.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.71/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $378 (overshoots $3.43). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $335.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.18/sh (~25% of the $0.71 collected) or spot ≥ $375.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $16,913 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,910, the opportunity cost of earning $4,564/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.4% | 79% | 43% | $3,075 | $13,179 | -$7,221 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $365 3.4% OTM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.14 mid) = $3,075 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,179/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $367.14) 82% EV / mo +$4,881 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$4,073 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $397 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.74/sh now → $4.77 mid-life (likely $4.64–$7.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 908 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $335.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $367.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $365): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $16,913 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,910, the opportunity cost of earning $13,179/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 68% | 50% | $4,760 | $20,400 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $360 2.0% OTM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.50 mid) = $4,760 credit for the 7d cycle → $20,400/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $363.50) 76% EV / mo +$6,070 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,820 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $394 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.70 mid-life (likely $5.60–$8.13) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,503 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $335.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $363.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $360): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,107 (+$194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,716, the opportunity cost of earning $20,400/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 14 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.1% | 49% | 99+% | $9,240 | $39,600 | +$19,200 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $352.50 0.1% ITM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.70 mid) = $9,240 credit for the 7d cycle → $39,600/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 49% Breach risk 51% POP (stays ≤ $359.20) 67% EV / mo +$7,509 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,797 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $388 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.51/sh now → $4.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.73: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.65/sh (~25% of the $6.60 collected) or spot ≥ $359.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.73, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $16,913 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $352.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,107 (+$194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $19,823 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,716, the opportunity cost of earning $39,600/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.744 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $19,823
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 15/15 | $19,607 | $19,607 | 72% | 78% | +$5,386 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,063 (vs do-nothing +$6,240) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 14/15 | $20,250 | $20,666 | 69% | 76% | +$4,975 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,557 (vs do-nothing +$6,734) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 14/15 | $20,400 | $20,816 | 68% | 76% | +$6,070 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,867 (vs do-nothing +$2,044) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 13/15 | $21,032 | $21,864 | 66% | 75% | +$4,770 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,116 (vs do-nothing +$7,293) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 15/15 | $20,143 | $20,143 | 65% | 74% | +$4,445 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,013 (vs do-nothing +$11,190) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 11/15 | $19,564 | $21,227 | 63% | 73% | +$3,851 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,819 (vs do-nothing +$6,996) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 11/15 | $20,271 | $21,934 | 62% | 73% | +$5,280 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,419 (vs do-nothing +$2,596) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.35 | 12/15 | $19,457 | $20,704 | 60% | 71% | +$3,753 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,115 (vs do-nothing +$11,292) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 9/15 | $20,057 | $22,551 | 57% | 70% | +$3,493 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,437 (vs do-nothing +$7,614) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 9/15 | $20,250 | $22,744 | 56% | 69% | +$4,195 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,802 (vs do-nothing +$2,979) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 8/15 | $19,886 | $22,796 | 54% | 69% | +$3,277 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,551 (vs do-nothing +$7,728) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 10/15 | $19,571 | $21,650 | 54% | 69% | +$3,410 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,583 (vs do-nothing +$11,760) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.60 | 8/15 | $21,600 | $24,510 | 51% | 67% | +$2,942 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,351 (vs do-nothing +$8,528) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 7/15 | $19,800 | $23,126 | 49% | 67% | +$3,755 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,085 (vs do-nothing +$3,262) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.10 | 9/15 | $20,700 | $23,194 | 49% | 66% | +$2,967 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,567 (vs do-nothing +$12,744) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.90 | 7/15 | $20,850 | $24,176 | 48% | 66% | +$2,587 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,195 (vs do-nothing +$8,372) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.30 | 6/15 | $19,671 | $23,413 | 45% | 64% | +$2,233 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,839 (vs do-nothing +$8,016) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.30 | 5/15 | $19,929 | $24,086 | 37% | 61% | +$2,069 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,503 (vs do-nothing +$3,680) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.