15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $335.40 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782, Main:1299
| Max Loss | $123,750 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $41,971/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $17,212 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 14 × $360 | 71% | $21,000 | $7,841 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.5% | 92% | 17% | $1,215 | $6,075 | -$14,925 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $372.50 5.5% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.84 mid) = $1,215 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $373.34) 92% EV / mo +$3,894 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,586 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $3.91–$6.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 316 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $376 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.40: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $373.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $17,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,212 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $20,122 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,910, the opportunity cost of earning $6,075/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 12 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.7% | 77% | 48% | $2,808 | $14,040 | -$6,960 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $362.50 2.7% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.40 mid) = $2,808 credit for the 6d cycle → $14,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $364.90) 82% EV / mo +$6,146 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,487 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.24/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $4.75–$7.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,025 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $366 (overshoots $3.08). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.40: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.34 collected) or spot ≥ $364.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $17,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $362.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $392.50): +$582 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,794 (+$582 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $20,122 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,328, the opportunity cost of earning $14,040/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 14 × $360 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.0% | 71% | 43% | $4,200 | $21,000 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $360 2.0% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.10 mid) = $4,200 credit for the 6d cycle → $21,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $363.10) 78% EV / mo +$7,926 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,935 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $402 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.20/sh now → $4.38 mid-life (likely $5.04–$8.09) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,287 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $3.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $335.40: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $363.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $17,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $360): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,406 (+$194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $20,122 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,716, the opportunity cost of earning $21,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 14 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.1% | 49% | 99+% | $8,400 | $42,000 | +$21,000 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $352.50 0.1% ITM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $6.17 mid) = $8,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $42,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 49% Breach risk 51% POP (stays ≤ $358.68) 67% EV / mo +$8,998 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,393 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.07/sh now → $4.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.40: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.50/sh (~25% of the $6.00 collected) or spot ≥ $358.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.74 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.40, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $17,212 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $352.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$194 Total Position P&L @ SS: $17,406 (+$194 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $20,122 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,716, the opportunity cost of earning $42,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.745 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $20,122
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 14/15 | $21,000 | $21,448 | 71% | 78% | +$7,926 | -$0 | 0.0% | $21,606 (vs do-nothing +$1,484) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 14/15 | $21,485 | $21,932 | 70% | 77% | +$6,486 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,716 (vs do-nothing +$6,594) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 13/15 | $22,500 | $23,395 | 67% | 75% | +$6,401 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,350 (vs do-nothing +$7,228) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 12/15 | $22,800 | $24,143 | 64% | 74% | +$7,192 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,354 (vs do-nothing +$2,232) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 11/15 | $21,450 | $23,241 | 64% | 74% | +$5,772 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,283 (vs do-nothing +$7,161) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.15 | 13/15 | $21,743 | $22,638 | 60% | 72% | +$4,808 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,095 (vs do-nothing +$11,973) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.50 | 9/15 | $21,808 | $24,494 | 58% | 71% | +$5,046 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,826 (vs do-nothing +$7,704) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 9/15 | $21,825 | $24,511 | 57% | 71% | +$5,877 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,741 (vs do-nothing +$2,619) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 8/15 | $21,508 | $24,642 | 54% | 69% | +$4,592 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,890 (vs do-nothing +$7,768) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.45 | 11/15 | $22,192 | $23,983 | 54% | 69% | +$4,405 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,783 (vs do-nothing +$12,661) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.60 | 8/15 | $23,262 | $26,395 | 51% | 67% | +$4,146 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,650 (vs do-nothing +$8,528) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 7/15 | $21,000 | $24,582 | 49% | 67% | +$4,499 | -$0 | 0.0% | $22,964 (vs do-nothing +$2,842) |
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.85 | 9/15 | $21,398 | $24,084 | 49% | 66% | +$3,511 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,641 (vs do-nothing +$12,519) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.05 | 7/15 | $22,696 | $26,278 | 48% | 66% | +$3,882 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,599 (vs do-nothing +$8,477) |
| $347.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.95 | 7/15 | $24,150 | $27,732 | 44% | 65% | +$3,085 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,229 (vs do-nothing +$9,107) |
| $347.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.70 | 5/15 | $21,750 | $26,227 | 35% | 61% | +$2,383 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,502 (vs do-nothing +$3,380) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.