15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $335.44 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782, Main:1299
| Max Loss | $123,750 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $41,885/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $18,525 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 13 × $360 | 68% | $21,450 | $7,360 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.2% | 91% | 18% | $1,245 | $6,225 | -$15,225 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $372.50 5.2% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.87 mid) = $1,245 credit for the 6d cycle → $6,225/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $373.37) 92% EV / mo +$3,893 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,626 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.48/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $3.87–$6.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 354 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $376 (overshoots $3.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.44: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $373.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,525 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $21,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,075, the opportunity cost of earning $6,225/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 14 × $365 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.1% | 80% | 41% | $2,772 | $13,860 | -$7,590 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 14 × $365 3.1% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.01 mid) = $2,772 credit for the 6d cycle → $13,860/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $367.01) 84% EV / mo +$6,637 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$3,512 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 14 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $4.61–$7.64) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 833 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $368 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $335.44: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $367.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (14 × $365): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $392.50): +$205 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,730 (+$205 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $21,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,870, the opportunity cost of earning $13,860/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 13 × $360 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.6% | 68% | 49% | $4,290 | $21,450 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $360 1.6% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.40 mid) = $4,290 credit for the 6d cycle → $21,450/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $363.40) 76% EV / mo +$7,580 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,465 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.26/sh now → $4.43 mid-life (likely $5.42–$8.06) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,469 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $3.22). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $360 is at/above CC-SS $335.44: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $363.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $360): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $392.50): +$410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,935 (+$410 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $21,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,665, the opportunity cost of earning $21,450/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 13 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.5% | 46% | 99+% | $8,840 | $44,200 | +$22,750 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $352.50 0.5% ITM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $6.88 mid) = $8,840 credit for the 6d cycle → $44,200/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 46% Breach risk 54% POP (stays ≤ $359.38) 66% EV / mo +$9,650 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$3,205 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $352.50 is at/above CC-SS $335.44: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.70/sh (~25% of the $6.80 collected) or spot ≥ $359.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.75 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $335.44, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $18,525 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $352.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $392.50): +$410 Total Position P&L @ SS: $18,935 (+$410 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $21,600 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,665, the opportunity cost of earning $44,200/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.749 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $21,600
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 15/15 | $21,635 | $21,635 | 71% | 78% | +$6,845 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,900 (vs do-nothing +$6,300) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 13/15 | $21,150 | $22,096 | 68% | 76% | +$6,280 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,100 (vs do-nothing +$6,500) |
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 13/15 | $21,450 | $22,396 | 68% | 76% | +$7,580 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,225 (vs do-nothing +$1,625) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 12/15 | $21,877 | $23,296 | 66% | 75% | +$6,023 | -$0 | 0.0% | $28,620 (vs do-nothing +$7,020) |
| $365 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 15/15 | $22,050 | $22,050 | 64% | 74% | +$5,745 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,225 (vs do-nothing +$11,625) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 11/15 | $22,338 | $24,231 | 62% | 73% | +$5,628 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,025 (vs do-nothing +$7,425) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 10/15 | $21,250 | $23,615 | 61% | 73% | +$6,418 | -$0 | 0.0% | $23,800 (vs do-nothing +$2,200) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 12/15 | $21,240 | $22,659 | 59% | 71% | +$4,853 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,300 (vs do-nothing +$11,700) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 9/15 | $21,704 | $24,542 | 56% | 70% | +$3,879 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,160 (vs do-nothing +$7,560) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 8/15 | $21,600 | $24,912 | 53% | 69% | +$5,510 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,280 (vs do-nothing +$2,680) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 11/15 | $22,605 | $24,497 | 53% | 68% | +$3,964 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,415 (vs do-nothing +$12,815) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.10 | 8/15 | $22,338 | $25,650 | 53% | 68% | +$4,375 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,640 (vs do-nothing +$8,040) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.30 | 7/15 | $21,485 | $25,269 | 49% | 67% | +$3,750 | -$0 | 0.0% | $29,475 (vs do-nothing +$7,875) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.25 | 9/15 | $21,938 | $24,776 | 47% | 66% | +$3,254 | -$0 | 0.0% | $34,380 (vs do-nothing +$12,780) |
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.70 | 7/15 | $23,746 | $27,531 | 46% | 65% | +$3,831 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,455 (vs do-nothing +$8,855) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 7/15 | $23,800 | $27,585 | 46% | 66% | +$5,196 | -$0 | 0.0% | $24,925 (vs do-nothing +$3,325) |
| $347.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.05 | 6/15 | $22,223 | $26,481 | 43% | 64% | +$3,145 | -$0 | 0.0% | $30,000 (vs do-nothing +$8,400) |
| $347.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.75 | 5/15 | $24,375 | $29,106 | 31% | 60% | +$2,905 | -$0 | 0.0% | $25,450 (vs do-nothing +$3,850) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.