15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $334.13 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782, Main:1299
| Max Loss | $123,750 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 1500 |
| Normal income ref | $44,649/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $20,820 | fortress legs from IBKR |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 15 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 12 × $362.50 | 72% | $23,541 | $9,123 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 15 × $375 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.6% | 92% | 16% | $1,020 | $5,100 | -$18,441 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $375 5.6% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.71 mid) = $1,020 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $375.71) 93% EV / mo +$3,246 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 9% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$7,761 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.28/sh now → $5.85 mid-life (likely $5.21–$8.66) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 256 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $378 (overshoots $3.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $334.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $375.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $334.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,820 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,820 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24,197 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,377, the opportunity cost of earning $5,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 15 × $365 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.8% | 78% | 45% | $3,075 | $15,375 | -$8,166 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 15 × $365 2.8% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.13 mid) = $3,075 credit for the 6d cycle → $15,375/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $367.13) 82% EV / mo +$6,577 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$5,471 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $385 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.06/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $5.98–$9.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 949 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $368 (overshoots $3.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $334.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $367.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $334.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,820 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (15 × $365): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $20,820 (+$0 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24,197 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,377, the opportunity cost of earning $15,375/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 12 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.1% | 72% | 42% | $4,708 | $23,541 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 12 × $362.50 2.1% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.13 mid) = $4,708 credit for the 6d cycle → $23,541/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $366.63) 81% EV / mo +$13,394 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 42% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,082 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 12 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.00/sh now → $5.66 mid-life (likely $6.55–$9.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,274 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $366 (overshoots $3.07). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $334.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.98/sh (~25% of the $3.92 collected) or spot ≥ $366.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $334.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,820 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (12 × $362.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (3 × $392.50): +$675 Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,495 (+$675 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24,197 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,702, the opportunity cost of earning $23,541/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 13 × $355 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.0% | 51% | 99+% | $9,262 | $46,312 | +$22,772 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 13 × $355 0.0% ITM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $7.50 mid) = $9,262 credit for the 6d cycle → $46,312/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $362.50) 72% EV / mo +$17,479 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$2,059 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $385 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 13 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.84/sh now → $5.54 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $355 is at/above CC-SS $334.13: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.78/sh (~25% of the $7.12 collected) or spot ≥ $362.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $334.13, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $20,820 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$0 − CC assignment net of premium (13 × $355): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $392.50): +$450 Total Position P&L @ SS: $21,270 (+$450 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $24,197 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,927, the opportunity cost of earning $46,312/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $24,197
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $362.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.92 | 12/15 | $23,541 | $25,100 | 72% | 81% | +$13,394 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,204 (vs do-nothing +$2,006) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 14/15 | $23,262 | $23,781 | 68% | 76% | +$6,506 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,125 (vs do-nothing +$6,928) |
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 10/15 | $23,987 | $26,585 | 65% | 78% | +$12,040 | -$0 | 0.0% | $26,743 (vs do-nothing +$2,546) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 12/15 | $22,431 | $23,989 | 65% | 75% | +$7,269 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,215 (vs do-nothing +$7,018) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 11/15 | $23,227 | $25,305 | 61% | 72% | +$5,771 | -$0 | 0.0% | $31,786 (vs do-nothing +$7,588) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.87 | 8/15 | $23,484 | $27,121 | 58% | 75% | +$10,293 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,093 (vs do-nothing +$2,896) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 13/15 | $22,718 | $23,757 | 58% | 70% | +$4,057 | -$0 | 0.0% | $36,415 (vs do-nothing +$12,218) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.85 | 9/15 | $24,604 | $27,722 | 55% | 71% | +$7,221 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,833 (vs do-nothing +$8,636) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 11/15 | $23,265 | $25,343 | 52% | 68% | +$3,760 | -$0 | 0.0% | $37,231 (vs do-nothing +$13,033) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.95 | 8/15 | $23,905 | $27,542 | 52% | 70% | +$6,300 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,755 (vs do-nothing +$8,558) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.12 | 7/15 | $24,938 | $29,094 | 51% | 72% | +$9,412 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,609 (vs do-nothing +$3,411) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.33 | 7/15 | $23,142 | $27,299 | 48% | 68% | +$5,684 | -$0 | 0.0% | $32,649 (vs do-nothing +$8,452) |
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 10/15 | $24,600 | $27,198 | 46% | 65% | +$2,981 | -$0 | 0.0% | $38,346 (vs do-nothing +$14,148) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.70 | 7/15 | $25,367 | $29,524 | 45% | 66% | +$4,689 | -$0 | 0.0% | $33,614 (vs do-nothing +$9,416) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.39 | 6/15 | $25,166 | $29,842 | 43% | 69% | +$7,733 | -$0 | 0.0% | $27,879 (vs do-nothing +$3,682) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.