FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $353.81

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.28 | 15 contracts (1,500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $353.81 UNDERWATER $38.69 (9.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · SHORT EXPIRY ONLY

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (4d) closes BEFORE earnings , that one is safe , but the richer/longer options below expire after it and would sell through the gap. Keep the tenor inside 2026-07-23.

15 contracts (1,500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.28 (banked floor $335.86) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782, Main:1299

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$123,750	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 1500
Normal income ref	$51,136/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$17,655	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$25,568/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$51,136/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $123,750

ML VELOCITY
2.4 mo to earn back $123,750

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.28 (probe: $347.5C 11d) still earns $41,686/mo (82% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,565

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.28 → $335.86

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 45 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.83 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.69 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.28 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 15 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$12,300

Income / mo

$20,500

🎯 Recommended · sell 15 × $365 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

85%

Touch odds

30%

Per cycle

$3,075

Income / mo

$23,062

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $7.02/sh now → $4.96 mid-life (likely $5.02–$8.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 593 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $368 (overshoots $3.09). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$365	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$6.89/sh	+$10,331 cycle +$13,406 [+$8,268…+$10,559] · 99% credit	69% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$381	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$2.42/sh	+$3,633 cycle +$6,708 [+$75…+$3,629] · 76% credit	78% surv 71%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.79/sh	+$1,182 cycle +$4,257 [-$2,800…+$1,150] · 42% credit	81% surv 76%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.21/sh	+$309 cycle +$3,384 [-$3,501…+$111] · 26% credit	81% surv 75%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.78/sh	-$2,665 cycle +$410 [-$7,340…-$2,755] · 1% credit	86% surv 84%
budget: banked $3,075 debit $2,665 (87% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$410 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $8,964/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 15 × $390 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$3,300

Income / mo

$9,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 15 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $15.12/sh now → $10.69 mid-life (likely $9.18–$14.32) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 469 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $395 (overshoots $4.96). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (15 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.30/sh	+$1,952 cycle +$5,252 [+$925…+$5,037] · 88% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$391	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.89/sh	+$1,329 cycle +$4,629 [+$226…+$4,257] · 79% credit	69% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$391	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.89/sh	+$1,329 cycle +$4,629 [+$226…+$4,257] · 79% credit	69% surv 53%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.54/sh	-$2,309 cycle +$991 [-$3,969…-$61] · 25% credit	72% surv 60%
budget: banked $3,300 debit $2,309 (70% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$991 cash · rolled 15 ct earn ≈ $34,312/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (22 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.750 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $20,790

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	13/15	$26,618	$27,758	80%	86%	+$18,533	-$0	0.0%	$21,622 (vs do-nothing +$832)
$370	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	15/15	$25,773	$25,773	73%	80%	+$11,621	-$0	0.0%	$27,105 (vs do-nothing +$6,315)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	10/15	$26,250	$29,100	72%	82%	+$16,276	-$0	0.0%	$22,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,410)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	14/15	$27,491	$28,061	70%	79%	+$11,865	-$0	0.0%	$27,944 (vs do-nothing +$7,154)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	12/15	$26,509	$28,219	67%	77%	+$10,754	-$0	0.0%	$28,002 (vs do-nothing +$7,212)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	8/15	$26,700	$30,690	64%	79%	+$14,397	-$0	0.0%	$22,678 (vs do-nothing +$1,888)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	11/15	$27,450	$29,730	64%	75%	+$10,558	-$0	0.0%	$28,556 (vs do-nothing +$7,766)
$362.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.45	15/15	$26,125	$26,125	62%	74%	+$7,440	-$0	0.0%	$33,330 (vs do-nothing +$12,540)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	14/15	$27,183	$27,753	59%	72%	+$7,521	-$0	0.0%	$34,174 (vs do-nothing +$13,384)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	9/15	$27,491	$30,911	57%	72%	+$8,914	-$0	0.0%	$28,989 (vs do-nothing +$8,199)
$357.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.54	13/15	$27,170	$28,310	56%	71%	+$6,665	-$0	0.0%	$34,375 (vs do-nothing +$13,585)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	7/15	$29,400	$33,960	55%	75%	+$13,485	-$0	0.0%	$23,247 (vs do-nothing +$2,457)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	11/15	$25,850	$28,130	53%	70%	+$6,442	-$0	0.0%	$34,001 (vs do-nothing +$13,211)

Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	8/15	$27,273	$31,263	53%	71%	+$8,298	-$0	0.0%	$29,118 (vs do-nothing +$8,328)
$352.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.87	11/15	$27,257	$29,537	50%	68%	+$5,622	-$0	0.0%	$34,845 (vs do-nothing +$14,055)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	7/15	$26,155	$30,715	50%	69%	+$7,189	-$0	0.0%	$28,917 (vs do-nothing +$8,127)
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	10/15	$27,333	$30,183	47%	67%	+$5,495	-$0	0.0%	$35,100 (vs do-nothing +$14,310)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	7/15	$28,541	$33,101	46%	68%	+$7,004	-$0	0.0%	$29,792 (vs do-nothing +$9,002)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	5/15	$26,250	$31,950	46%	71%	+$10,144	-$0	0.0%	$23,245 (vs do-nothing +$2,455)
$347.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$17.41	9/15	$26,120	$29,540	44%	66%	+$4,378	-$0	0.0%	$34,581 (vs do-nothing +$13,791)
$347.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$16.50	6/15	$27,000	$32,130	42%	67%	+$6,157	-$0	0.0%	$29,436 (vs do-nothing +$8,646)
$347.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$10.15	4/15	$30,450	$36,720	28%	66%	+$7,540	-$0	0.0%	$24,014 (vs do-nothing +$3,224)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 15 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 19:31