FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $344.93

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.45 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $344.93 UNDERWATER $47.57 (12.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 5 days. The recommended CC (6d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.45 (banked floor $322.42) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$14,885/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$2,562	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,442/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$14,885/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.8 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
2.8 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.45 (probe: $340C 13d) still earns $12,023/mo (81% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.45 → $322.42

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 41 · %B 26 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.12 (+20%) · daily UBB $369.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$23 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.45 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $357.50 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $357.50)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$2,975

Income / mo

$14,875

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.96/sh now → $8.46 mid-life (likely $10.36–$15.34) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,419 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $364 (overshoots $6.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$358	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.94/sh	+$1,472 cycle +$4,447 [+$629…+$1,409] · 97% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$363	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$3.74/sh	+$1,869 cycle +$4,844 [+$569…+$1,694] · 91% credit	70% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$363	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.62/sh	+$308 cycle +$3,283 [-$804…+$93] · 27% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$368	7 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.41/sh	+$204 cycle +$3,179 [-$1,493…-$243] · 21% credit	71% surv 63%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$398	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$5.63/sh	-$2,814 cycle +$161 [-$5,485…-$3,551]	88% surv 87%
budget: banked $2,975 debit $2,814 (95% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$161 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,768/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $367.50 24 Jul 2026 (6d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)

82%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,675

Income / mo

$8,375

Buyback gross: $12.29/sh now → $8.69 mid-life (likely $8.87–$14.31) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 818 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $374 (overshoots $6.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$368	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.73/sh	+$1,367 cycle +$3,042 [+$794…+$1,912] · 98% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$373	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$3.46/sh	+$1,728 cycle +$3,403 [+$798…+$2,341] · 93% credit	70% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$373	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.41/sh	+$203 cycle +$1,878 [-$603…+$603] · 45% credit	71% surv 59%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$378	7 Aug 2026	17d left	+$0.20/sh	+$99 cycle +$1,774 [-$1,184…+$469] · 36% credit	71% surv 63%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$388	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$1.91/sh	-$953 cycle +$722 [-$2,458…-$621] · 14% credit	78% surv 73%
budget: banked $1,675 debit $953 (57% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$722 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,242/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $395 14 Aug 2026 (27d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,140

Income / mo

$1,267

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (25 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 25 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.727 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,338

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$367.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.35	5/5	$8,375	$8,375	82%	85%	+$3,858	-$0	0.0%	$4,238 (vs do-nothing +$900)
$365	6d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	4/5	$7,700	$8,058	79%	83%	+$3,274	-$0	0.0%	$4,258 (vs do-nothing +$920)
$362.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	4/5	$9,000	$9,358	76%	81%	+$3,614	-$0	0.0%	$4,518 (vs do-nothing +$1,180)
$357.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$5.95	3/5	$8,925	$9,640	70%	77%	+$3,063	-$0	0.0%	$4,658 (vs do-nothing +$1,320)
$360	13d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	5/5	$7,962	$7,962	70%	77%	+$2,252	-$0	0.0%	$6,012 (vs do-nothing +$2,675)
$357.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$7.65	5/5	$8,827	$8,827	67%	75%	+$2,274	-$0	0.0%	$6,388 (vs do-nothing +$3,050)
$355	6d	24 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$10,200	$10,915	66%	75%	+$3,216	-$0	0.0%	$4,912 (vs do-nothing +$1,575)
$355	13d	31 Jul 2026	$8.60	4/5	$7,938	$8,296	64%	74%	+$1,948	-$0	0.0%	$6,158 (vs do-nothing +$2,820)
$352.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	2/5	$7,700	$8,773	63%	73%	+$2,193	-$0	0.0%	$4,568 (vs do-nothing +$1,230)
$352.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$9.50	4/5	$8,769	$9,127	61%	72%	+$1,954	-$0	0.0%	$6,518 (vs do-nothing +$3,180)
$350	6d	24 Jul 2026	$8.70	2/5	$8,700	$9,773	59%	72%	+$2,237	-$0	0.0%	$4,768 (vs do-nothing +$1,430)
$350	13d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	4/5	$9,785	$10,142	58%	71%	+$2,064	-$0	0.0%	$6,958 (vs do-nothing +$3,620)
$350	20d	7 Aug 2026	$11.95	5/5	$8,962	$8,962	57%	69%	+$788	-$0	0.0%	$8,538 (vs do-nothing +$5,200)

Show 12 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$347.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$9.80	2/5	$9,800	$10,873	55%	70%	+$2,270	-$0	0.0%	$4,988 (vs do-nothing +$1,650)
$347.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	3/5	$8,065	$8,781	55%	69%	+$1,542	-$0	0.0%	$6,368 (vs do-nothing +$3,030)
$345	20d	7 Aug 2026	$14.30	4/5	$8,580	$8,938	52%	67%	+$690	-$0	0.0%	$8,438 (vs do-nothing +$5,100)
$345	27d	14 Aug 2026	$15.30	5/5	$8,500	$8,500	52%	68%	+$1,455	-$0	0.0%	$10,212 (vs do-nothing +$6,875)
$345	13d	31 Jul 2026	$12.90	3/5	$8,931	$9,646	52%	68%	+$1,601	-$0	0.0%	$6,742 (vs do-nothing +$3,405)
$345	6d	24 Jul 2026	$11.00	2/5	$11,000	$12,073	52%	68%	+$2,293	-$0	0.0%	$5,228 (vs do-nothing +$1,890)
$342.50	13d	31 Jul 2026	$14.05	3/5	$9,727	$10,442	49%	67%	+$1,526	-$0	0.0%	$7,088 (vs do-nothing +$3,750)
$342.50	6d	24 Jul 2026	$11.85	2/5	$11,850	$12,923	48%	66%	+$1,853	-$0	0.0%	$5,398 (vs do-nothing +$2,060)
$340	20d	7 Aug 2026	$16.70	3/5	$7,515	$8,230	47%	64%	+$449	-$0	0.0%	$7,882 (vs do-nothing +$4,545)
$340	27d	14 Aug 2026	$17.25	4/5	$7,667	$8,024	47%	65%	+$884	-$0	0.0%	$9,618 (vs do-nothing +$6,280)
$340	13d	31 Jul 2026	$15.35	3/5	$10,627	$11,342	46%	65%	+$1,487	-$0	0.0%	$7,478 (vs do-nothing +$4,140)
$340	6d	24 Jul 2026	$13.50	2/5	$13,500	$14,573	44%	65%	+$2,100	-$0	0.0%	$5,728 (vs do-nothing +$2,390)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-18 03:37