FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $346.12

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $329.86 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $346.12 UNDERWATER $46.38 (11.8% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 4 days. The recommended CC (5d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $329.86 (banked floor $313.30) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$15,600/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,800/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$15,600/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $329.86 (probe: $340C 12d) still earns $12,725/mo (82% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$329.86 → $313.30

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 29 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.18 (+20%) · daily UBB $369.25 · 1-wk expected move ±$23 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $329.86 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $357.50 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $357.50)

69%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$3,275

Income / mo

$19,650

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.95/sh now → $8.45 mid-life (likely $9.58–$15.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.90/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,185 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $363 (overshoots $5.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$361	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$4.65/sh	+$2,327 cycle +$5,602 [+$740…+$2,296] · 86% credit	70% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$358	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.93/sh	+$1,464 cycle +$4,739 [+$151…+$1,423] · 78% credit	67% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$371	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.72/sh	+$362 cycle +$3,637 [-$1,587…+$177] · 28% credit	75% surv 67%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$364	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.06/sh	+$28 cycle +$3,303 [-$1,611…-$172] · 22% credit	71% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$406	14 Aug 2026	24d left	-$6.53/sh	-$3,265 cycle +$10 [-$6,221…-$3,764]	91% surv 91%
budget: banked $3,275 debit $3,265 (100% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$10 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,199/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $367.50 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$1,875

Income / mo

$11,250

Buyback gross: $12.28/sh now → $8.68 mid-life (likely $8.18–$14.62) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 599 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $373 (overshoots $5.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$368	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$2.72/sh	+$1,361 cycle +$3,236 [+$334…+$1,837] · 80% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$376	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$2.14/sh	+$1,068 cycle +$2,943 [-$371…+$1,527] · 67% credit	72% surv 62%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$371	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$1.20/sh	+$599 cycle +$2,474 [-$577…+$965] · 60% credit	70% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$381	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.44/sh	+$220 cycle +$2,095 [-$1,375…+$583] · 41% credit	75% surv 67%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$391	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$3.63/sh	-$1,816 cycle +$59 [-$3,878…-$1,525] · 2% credit	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $1,875 debit $1,816 (97% used ≈ 0.7 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$59 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,736/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $395 14 Aug 2026 (26d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,160

Income / mo

$1,338

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (29 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 29 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.727 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $6,650

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$372.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.73	5/5	$8,190	$8,190	87%	89%	+$5,178	-$0	0.0%	$7,365 (vs do-nothing +$715)
$370	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	4/5	$7,920	$8,245	85%	87%	+$4,867	-$0	0.0%	$7,450 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$367.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/5	$9,000	$9,325	82%	86%	+$5,162	-$0	0.0%	$7,630 (vs do-nothing +$980)
$365	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	3/5	$7,830	$8,480	79%	84%	+$4,240	-$0	0.0%	$7,565 (vs do-nothing +$915)
$362.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	3/5	$9,000	$9,650	76%	82%	+$4,560	-$0	0.0%	$7,760 (vs do-nothing +$1,110)
$357.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	2/5	$7,860	$8,835	69%	78%	+$3,446	-$0	0.0%	$7,700 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$360	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.40	5/5	$9,250	$9,250	69%	77%	+$3,057	-$0	0.0%	$9,700 (vs do-nothing +$3,050)
$357.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$7.75	5/5	$9,688	$9,688	66%	75%	+$2,559	-$0	0.0%	$9,875 (vs do-nothing +$3,225)
$355	5d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	2/5	$8,880	$9,855	66%	76%	+$3,560	-$0	0.0%	$7,870 (vs do-nothing +$1,220)
$355	12d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	4/5	$9,300	$9,625	63%	74%	+$2,764	-$0	0.0%	$9,850 (vs do-nothing +$3,200)
$355	19d	7 Aug 2026	$10.55	5/5	$8,329	$8,329	62%	73%	+$2,157	-$0	0.0%	$11,275 (vs do-nothing +$4,625)
$352.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$8.20	2/5	$9,840	$10,815	62%	74%	+$3,482	-$0	0.0%	$8,030 (vs do-nothing +$1,380)
$352.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$9.85	4/5	$9,850	$10,175	60%	72%	+$2,392	-$0	0.0%	$10,070 (vs do-nothing +$3,420)

Show 16 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	5d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	2/5	$11,220	$12,195	58%	72%	+$3,685	-$0	0.0%	$8,260 (vs do-nothing +$1,610)
$350	12d	31 Jul 2026	$11.25	3/5	$8,438	$9,088	57%	71%	+$2,083	-$0	0.0%	$9,635 (vs do-nothing +$2,985)
$350	19d	7 Aug 2026	$12.60	4/5	$7,958	$8,283	56%	70%	+$1,764	-$0	0.0%	$11,170 (vs do-nothing +$4,520)
$350	26d	14 Aug 2026	$13.90	5/5	$8,019	$8,019	56%	70%	+$1,827	-$0	0.0%	$12,950 (vs do-nothing +$6,300)
$347.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$12,720	$13,695	54%	74%	+$5,573	-$0	0.0%	$8,510 (vs do-nothing +$1,860)
$347.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	3/5	$8,738	$9,388	54%	69%	+$1,550	-$0	0.0%	$9,755 (vs do-nothing +$3,105)
$345	26d	14 Aug 2026	$16.10	5/5	$9,288	$9,288	51%	68%	+$1,750	-$0	0.0%	$14,050 (vs do-nothing +$7,400)
$345	19d	7 Aug 2026	$15.05	4/5	$9,505	$9,830	51%	68%	+$1,840	-$0	0.0%	$12,150 (vs do-nothing +$5,500)
$345	12d	31 Jul 2026	$13.60	3/5	$10,200	$10,850	50%	68%	+$2,107	-$0	0.0%	$10,340 (vs do-nothing +$3,690)
$345	5d	24 Jul 2026	$11.40	2/5	$13,680	$14,655	49%	72%	+$5,071	-$0	0.0%	$8,670 (vs do-nothing +$2,020)
$342.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$14.75	3/5	$11,062	$11,712	47%	67%	+$1,989	-$0	0.0%	$10,685 (vs do-nothing +$4,035)
$340	26d	14 Aug 2026	$18.85	4/5	$8,700	$9,025	45%	66%	+$1,441	-$0	0.0%	$13,670 (vs do-nothing +$7,020)
$340	19d	7 Aug 2026	$17.65	3/5	$8,361	$9,011	45%	65%	+$1,344	-$0	0.0%	$11,555 (vs do-nothing +$4,905)
$342.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$12.85	2/5	$15,420	$16,395	44%	70%	+$5,168	-$0	0.0%	$8,960 (vs do-nothing +$2,310)
$340	12d	31 Jul 2026	$16.30	2/5	$8,150	$9,125	44%	65%	+$1,397	-$0	0.0%	$9,650 (vs do-nothing +$3,000)
$340	5d	24 Jul 2026	$14.50	1/5	$8,700	$10,000	39%	68%	+$2,663	-$0	0.0%	$7,970 (vs do-nothing +$1,320)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-19 19:27