FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $353.81

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $337.93 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $353.81 UNDERWATER $38.69 (9.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 4 days. The recommended CC (5d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $337.93 (banked floor $321.85) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$5,938/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$6,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$2,969/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$5,938/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
6.9 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $337.93 (probe: $370C 12d) still earns $5,938/mo (100% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$337.93 → $321.85

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 52 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.18 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.34 · 1-wk expected move ±$28 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $337.93 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $380 14 Aug 2026 (26d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$2,300

Income / mo

$2,654

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $375 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $375)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,105

Income / mo

$6,630

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 5); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $8.90/sh now → $6.29 mid-life (likely $6.48–$10.92) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.08/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 774 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 5, at $382 (overshoots $6.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$381	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$3.27/sh	+$1,634 cycle +$2,739 [+$376…+$1,776] · 82% credit	64% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$391	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.22/sh	+$110 cycle +$1,215 [-$1,412…+$191] · 30% credit	69% surv 64%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$391	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$1.06/sh	-$532 cycle +$573 [-$1,705…-$400] · 16% credit	76% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,105 debit $532 (48% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$573 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,900/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$375	31 Jul 2026	10d left	-$2.03/sh	-$1,017 cycle +$88 [-$2,421…-$917] · 6% credit	57% surv 52%

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $385 24 Jul 2026 (5d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$605

Income / mo

$3,630

Buyback gross: $9.13/sh now → $6.46 mid-life (likely $5.93–$10.52) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 386 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 5, at $392 (overshoots $6.61). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$396	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$1.53/sh	+$765 cycle +$1,370 [-$346…+$1,233] · 69% credit	66% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	7 Aug 2026	16d left	-$0.08/sh	-$38 cycle +$567 [-$735…+$526] · 47% credit	72% surv 65%
budget: banked $605 debit $38 (6% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$567 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,985/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓
Max even-money escape in the band	~$401	14 Aug 2026	24d left	+$0.10/sh	+$51 cycle +$656 [-$1,199…+$469] · 41% credit	68% surv 64%
reaches SS ✓
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	31 Jul 2026	10d left	-$2.20/sh	-$1,098 cycle -$493 [-$2,210…-$644] · 6% credit	57% surv 51%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (31 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 31 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $6,775

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.21	5/5	$3,630	$3,630	90%	91%	+$1,587	-$0	0.0%	$6,605 (vs do-nothing $-170)
$382.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.47	4/5	$3,528	$3,916	88%	89%	+$1,439	-$0	0.0%	$6,743 (vs do-nothing $-32)
$380	5d	24 Jul 2026	$1.72	3/5	$3,096	$3,871	86%	88%	+$1,110	-$0	0.0%	$6,826 (vs do-nothing +$51)
$377.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.05	3/5	$3,690	$4,465	84%	86%	+$1,192	-$0	0.0%	$6,925 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$375	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.21	3/5	$3,978	$4,753	81%	84%	+$862	-$0	0.0%	$6,973 (vs do-nothing +$198)
$380	12d	31 Jul 2026	$2.75	5/5	$3,438	$3,438	80%	83%	+$309	-$0	0.0%	$7,375 (vs do-nothing +$600)
$372.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$2.73	2/5	$3,276	$4,438	79%	82%	+$705	-$0	0.0%	$7,011 (vs do-nothing +$236)
$375	12d	31 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/5	$3,750	$4,138	76%	79%	+$350	-$0	0.0%	$7,655 (vs do-nothing +$880)
$370	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	2/5	$3,960	$5,122	76%	80%	+$806	-$0	0.0%	$7,125 (vs do-nothing +$350)
$375	19d	7 Aug 2026	$4.40	5/5	$3,474	$3,474	74%	78%	$-44	-$0	0.0%	$8,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,425)
$372.50	12d	31 Jul 2026	$3.75	4/5	$3,750	$4,138	74%	78%	$-190	-$0	0.0%	$7,655 (vs do-nothing +$880)
$367.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$3.75	2/5	$4,500	$5,662	72%	77%	+$659	-$0	0.0%	$7,215 (vs do-nothing +$440)
$370	12d	31 Jul 2026	$4.75	3/5	$3,562	$4,338	71%	76%	+$150	-$0	0.0%	$7,735 (vs do-nothing +$960)

Show 18 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	19d	7 Aug 2026	$5.90	4/5	$3,726	$4,114	69%	75%	+$113	-$0	0.0%	$8,515 (vs do-nothing +$1,740)
$365	5d	24 Jul 2026	$4.35	2/5	$5,220	$6,382	69%	75%	+$579	-$0	0.0%	$7,335 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$375	26d	14 Aug 2026	$5.65	5/5	$3,260	$3,260	67%	71%	$-2,728	-$0	0.0%	$8,825 (vs do-nothing +$2,050)
$362.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$5.00	1/5	$3,000	$4,550	65%	72%	+$218	-$0	0.0%	$7,120 (vs do-nothing +$345)
$370	26d	14 Aug 2026	$6.85	4/5	$3,162	$3,549	64%	69%	$-2,377	-$0	0.0%	$8,895 (vs do-nothing +$2,120)
$365	19d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	3/5	$3,363	$4,138	64%	72%	$-76	-$0	0.0%	$8,440 (vs do-nothing +$1,665)
$365	26d	14 Aug 2026	$8.30	4/5	$3,831	$4,218	61%	67%	$-2,542	-$0	0.0%	$9,475 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)
$360	19d	7 Aug 2026	$8.60	3/5	$4,074	$4,849	59%	68%	$-239	-$0	0.0%	$8,890 (vs do-nothing +$2,115)
$360	26d	14 Aug 2026	$9.95	3/5	$3,444	$4,219	58%	64%	$-2,030	-$0	0.0%	$9,295 (vs do-nothing +$2,520)
$357.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$6.55	1/5	$3,930	$5,480	57%	68%	+$25	-$0	0.0%	$7,275 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$355	26d	14 Aug 2026	$11.65	3/5	$4,033	$4,808	53%	65%	$-198	-$0	0.0%	$9,805 (vs do-nothing +$3,030)
$355	19d	7 Aug 2026	$10.55	2/5	$3,332	$4,494	53%	65%	$-228	-$0	0.0%	$8,575 (vs do-nothing +$1,800)
$355	5d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$4,440	$5,990	53%	65%	$-132	-$0	0.0%	$7,360 (vs do-nothing +$585)
$352.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$8.20	1/5	$4,920	$6,470	49%	63%	$-392	-$0	0.0%	$7,440 (vs do-nothing +$665)
$350	26d	14 Aug 2026	$13.90	2/5	$3,208	$4,370	48%	63%	$-188	-$0	0.0%	$9,245 (vs do-nothing +$2,470)
$350	19d	7 Aug 2026	$12.60	2/5	$3,979	$5,141	48%	62%	$-371	-$0	0.0%	$8,985 (vs do-nothing +$2,210)
$350	5d	24 Jul 2026	$9.35	1/5	$5,610	$7,160	45%	61%	$-514	-$0	0.0%	$7,555 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$347.50	5d	24 Jul 2026	$10.60	1/5	$6,360	$7,910	41%	59%	$-648	-$0	0.0%	$7,680 (vs do-nothing +$905)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-19 21:24