FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $353.47

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $345.90 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $353.47 UNDERWATER $39.03 (9.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $345.90 (banked floor $330.26) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,659/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,020	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,329/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,659/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $345.90 (probe: $347.5C 17d) still earns $8,541/mo (80% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$345.90 → $330.26

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 50 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.69 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.35 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $345.90 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $370 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$3,275

Income / mo

$5,779

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.26/sh now → $10.08 mid-life (likely $11.83–$15.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,501 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 17, at $375 (overshoots $5.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$1.38/sh	+$689 cycle +$3,964 [+$60…+$619] · 83% credit	66% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$372	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.70/sh	+$348 cycle +$3,623 [-$313…+$247] · 40% credit	67% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$372	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.70/sh	+$348 cycle +$3,623 [-$313…+$247] · 40% credit	67% surv 54%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$392	14 Aug 2026	16d left	-$6.04/sh	-$3,019 cycle +$256 [-$4,522…-$3,518]	80% surv 77%
budget: banked $3,275 debit $3,019 (92% used ≈ 2.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$256 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,792/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $372.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $372.50)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,525

Income / mo

$15,250

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.04/sh now → $7.10 mid-life (likely $7.65–$13.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 714 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $380 (overshoots $7.14). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$372	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.29/sh	+$1,645 cycle +$3,170 [+$1,216…+$2,133] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$384	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.03/sh	+$1,014 cycle +$2,539 [-$297…+$1,304] · 68% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$379	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.44/sh	+$218 cycle +$1,743 [-$508…+$578] · 47% credit	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$389	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.39/sh	+$197 cycle +$1,722 [-$1,309…+$399] · 36% credit	76% surv 69%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$399	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.15/sh	-$1,077 cycle +$448 [-$3,017…-$1,013] · 4% credit	82% surv 78%
budget: banked $1,525 debit $1,077 (71% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$448 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,373/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $382.50 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $382.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$730

Income / mo

$7,300

Buyback gross: $10.31/sh now → $7.29 mid-life (likely $6.94–$12.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.46/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 352 simulated challenges: the $382 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $390 (overshoots $7.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$382	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.09/sh	+$1,545 cycle +$2,275 [+$1,559…+$2,353] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$394	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.79/sh	+$895 cycle +$1,625 [-$47…+$1,389] · 74% credit	73% surv 64%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$389	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.23/sh	+$117 cycle +$847 [-$423…+$591] · 61% credit	73% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$399	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.16/sh	+$79 cycle +$809 [-$1,036…+$528] · 46% credit	76% surv 69%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$1.40/sh	-$702 cycle +$28 [-$2,031…-$283] · 15% credit	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $730 debit $702 (96% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$28 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,014/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.741 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,895

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.23	5/5	$6,150	$6,150	92%	93%	+$3,912	-$0	0.0%	$3,635 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$382.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.46	4/5	$5,840	$6,365	90%	91%	+$3,479	-$0	0.0%	$3,779 (vs do-nothing $-116)
$380	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.83	3/5	$5,490	$6,540	88%	90%	+$3,172	-$0	0.0%	$3,919 (vs do-nothing +$24)
$377.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/5	$6,510	$7,560	86%	88%	+$3,502	-$0	0.0%	$4,021 (vs do-nothing +$126)
$375	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.55	3/5	$7,650	$8,700	84%	86%	+$3,782	-$0	0.0%	$4,135 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$372.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	2/5	$6,100	$7,675	81%	84%	+$2,815	-$0	0.0%	$4,155 (vs do-nothing +$260)
$370	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.60	2/5	$7,200	$8,775	78%	82%	+$3,057	-$0	0.0%	$4,265 (vs do-nothing +$370)
$375	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,075	$6,075	77%	81%	+$1,743	-$0	0.0%	$5,045 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$372.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	75%	80%	+$1,290	-$0	0.0%	$5,145 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)
$367.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$8,400	$9,975	74%	80%	+$3,227	-$0	0.0%	$4,385 (vs do-nothing +$490)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	4/5	$6,360	$6,885	72%	78%	+$1,607	-$0	0.0%	$5,315 (vs do-nothing +$1,420)
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$6,840	$7,365	72%	79%	+$2,510	-$0	0.0%	$5,475 (vs do-nothing +$1,580)
$365	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	2/5	$9,800	$11,375	71%	78%	+$3,406	-$0	0.0%	$4,525 (vs do-nothing +$630)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	5/5	$5,779	$5,779	70%	76%	+$1,156	-$0	0.0%	$6,295 (vs do-nothing +$2,400)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/5	$6,030	$7,080	68%	77%	+$2,168	-$0	0.0%	$5,380 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)
$367.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	5/5	$6,265	$6,265	68%	75%	+$1,017	-$0	0.0%	$6,570 (vs do-nothing +$2,675)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	1/5	$5,600	$7,700	67%	75%	+$1,688	-$0	0.0%	$4,280 (vs do-nothing +$385)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	4/5	$5,753	$6,278	65%	73%	+$1,003	-$0	0.0%	$6,455 (vs do-nothing +$2,560)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/5	$6,795	$7,845	65%	75%	+$2,233	-$0	0.0%	$5,635 (vs do-nothing +$1,740)
$365	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.60	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	64%	73%	+$1,116	-$0	0.0%	$7,820 (vs do-nothing +$3,925)
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.80	4/5	$6,212	$6,737	62%	72%	+$856	-$0	0.0%	$6,715 (vs do-nothing +$2,820)
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$7,560	$8,610	61%	73%	+$2,207	-$0	0.0%	$5,890 (vs do-nothing +$1,995)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.05	4/5	$7,094	$7,619	59%	71%	+$1,077	-$0	0.0%	$7,215 (vs do-nothing +$3,320)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$11.45	4/5	$5,725	$6,250	59%	70%	+$887	-$0	0.0%	$7,775 (vs do-nothing +$3,880)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$7,400	$9,500	58%	71%	+$1,710	-$0	0.0%	$4,460 (vs do-nothing +$565)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$5,640	$7,215	58%	71%	+$1,481	-$0	0.0%	$5,425 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.80	3/5	$5,718	$6,768	57%	69%	+$664	-$0	0.0%	$6,610 (vs do-nothing +$2,715)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	1/5	$8,450	$10,550	54%	69%	+$1,686	-$0	0.0%	$4,565 (vs do-nothing +$670)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$6,360	$7,935	54%	70%	+$1,544	-$0	0.0%	$5,665 (vs do-nothing +$1,770)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.60	4/5	$6,800	$7,325	54%	68%	+$879	-$0	0.0%	$8,635 (vs do-nothing +$4,740)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$12.00	3/5	$6,353	$7,403	54%	68%	+$714	-$0	0.0%	$6,970 (vs do-nothing +$3,075)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$6,909	$7,959	51%	66%	+$638	-$0	0.0%	$7,285 (vs do-nothing +$3,390)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$6,990	$8,565	50%	68%	+$1,451	-$0	0.0%	$5,875 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.60	1/5	$9,600	$11,700	49%	67%	+$1,632	-$0	0.0%	$4,680 (vs do-nothing +$785)
$350	24d	14 Aug 2026	$15.80	3/5	$5,925	$6,975	48%	65%	+$554	-$0	0.0%	$8,110 (vs do-nothing +$4,215)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.55	3/5	$7,703	$8,753	48%	65%	+$753	-$0	0.0%	$7,735 (vs do-nothing +$3,840)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.55	2/5	$7,530	$9,105	46%	66%	+$1,199	-$0	0.0%	$6,055 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.80	1/5	$10,800	$12,900	45%	64%	+$1,498	-$0	0.0%	$4,800 (vs do-nothing +$905)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$15.65	2/5	$5,524	$7,099	45%	64%	+$406	-$0	0.0%	$6,675 (vs do-nothing +$2,780)
$347.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$14.00	2/5	$8,400	$9,975	42%	64%	+$1,208	-$0	0.0%	$6,345 (vs do-nothing +$2,450)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.05	1/5	$12,050	$14,150	40%	62%	+$1,282	-$0	0.0%	$4,925 (vs do-nothing +$1,030)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 10:56