FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $353.66

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $346.12 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $353.66 UNDERWATER $38.84 (9.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (10d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $346.12 (banked floor $330.59) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,491/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,020	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,246/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,491/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $346.12 (probe: $347.5C 17d) still earns $8,374/mo (80% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$346.12 → $330.59

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 55 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 51 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.69 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.36 · 1-wk expected move ±$24 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $346.12 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $367.50 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)

69%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$2,850

Income / mo

$8,550

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 10); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.28/sh now → $8.69 mid-life (likely $10.07–$14.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,499 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 10, at $373 (overshoots $5.45). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$369	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$3.34/sh	+$1,669 cycle +$4,519 [+$761…+$1,667] · 99% credit	67% surv 53%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$368	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.94/sh	+$969 cycle +$3,819 [+$81…+$853] · 79% credit	64% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$374	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$1.20/sh	+$602 cycle +$3,452 [-$445…+$495] · 43% credit	70% surv 59%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$371	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.23/sh	+$114 cycle +$2,964 [-$947…-$103] · 23% credit	67% surv 56%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$399	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$5.51/sh	-$2,756 cycle +$94 [-$4,696…-$3,223]	85% surv 83%
budget: banked $2,850 debit $2,756 (97% used ≈ 1.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$94 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,506/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $380 31 Jul 2026 (10d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$1,500

Income / mo

$4,500

Buyback gross: $12.70/sh now → $8.98 mid-life (likely $9.06–$13.50) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 850 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 10, at $386 (overshoots $5.51). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$381	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$3.00/sh	+$1,501 cycle +$3,001 [+$859…+$2,053] · 99% credit	67% surv 53%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.68/sh	+$841 cycle +$2,341 [+$161…+$1,128] · 84% credit	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.12/sh	+$561 cycle +$2,061 [-$155…+$792] · 64% credit	65% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	14 Aug 2026	19d left	+$0.87/sh	+$433 cycle +$1,933 [-$355…+$838] · 56% credit	70% surv 59%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	14 Aug 2026	19d left	-$2.52/sh	-$1,262 cycle +$238 [-$2,372…-$1,048] · 8% credit	76% surv 70%
budget: banked $1,500 debit $1,262 (84% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$238 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,098/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $400 14 Aug 2026 (24d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $400)

89%

Touch odds

23%

Per cycle

$1,025

Income / mo

$1,281

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (30 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 30 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,895

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$375	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,075	$6,075	77%	81%	+$1,682	-$0	0.0%	$5,045 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$372.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	75%	79%	+$1,222	-$0	0.0%	$5,145 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	4/5	$6,360	$6,885	72%	78%	+$1,545	-$0	0.0%	$5,315 (vs do-nothing +$1,420)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	1/5	$5,600	$7,700	72%	82%	+$3,445	-$0	0.0%	$4,280 (vs do-nothing +$385)
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$6,840	$7,365	69%	76%	+$1,243	-$0	0.0%	$5,475 (vs do-nothing +$1,580)
$370	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	5/5	$5,779	$5,779	68%	74%	$-27	-$0	0.0%	$6,295 (vs do-nothing +$2,400)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/5	$6,030	$7,080	66%	74%	+$1,173	-$0	0.0%	$5,380 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)
$367.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	5/5	$6,265	$6,265	66%	73%	$-220	-$0	0.0%	$6,570 (vs do-nothing +$2,675)
$365	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.60	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	64%	73%	+$1,071	-$0	0.0%	$7,820 (vs do-nothing +$3,925)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	4/5	$5,753	$6,278	64%	71%	$-24	-$0	0.0%	$6,455 (vs do-nothing +$2,560)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/5	$6,795	$7,845	63%	73%	+$1,202	-$0	0.0%	$5,635 (vs do-nothing +$1,740)
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.80	4/5	$6,212	$6,737	61%	70%	$-204	-$0	0.0%	$6,715 (vs do-nothing +$2,820)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$7,400	$9,500	60%	77%	+$3,667	-$0	0.0%	$4,460 (vs do-nothing +$565)

Show 17 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$7,560	$8,610	60%	71%	+$1,149	-$0	0.0%	$5,890 (vs do-nothing +$1,995)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$11.45	4/5	$5,725	$6,250	59%	70%	+$846	-$0	0.0%	$7,775 (vs do-nothing +$3,880)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.05	3/5	$5,321	$6,371	59%	69%	$-8	-$0	0.0%	$6,385 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$5,640	$7,215	57%	69%	+$764	-$0	0.0%	$5,425 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.80	3/5	$5,718	$6,768	56%	67%	$-166	-$0	0.0%	$6,610 (vs do-nothing +$2,715)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	1/5	$8,450	$10,550	54%	74%	+$3,674	-$0	0.0%	$4,565 (vs do-nothing +$670)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$12.00	3/5	$6,353	$7,403	54%	66%	$-127	-$0	0.0%	$6,970 (vs do-nothing +$3,075)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.60	4/5	$6,800	$7,325	54%	68%	+$832	-$0	0.0%	$8,635 (vs do-nothing +$4,740)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$6,360	$7,935	53%	68%	+$817	-$0	0.0%	$5,665 (vs do-nothing +$1,770)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$6,909	$7,959	51%	65%	$-207	-$0	0.0%	$7,285 (vs do-nothing +$3,390)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$6,990	$8,565	50%	66%	+$720	-$0	0.0%	$5,875 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.55	3/5	$7,703	$8,753	48%	64%	$-90	-$0	0.0%	$7,735 (vs do-nothing +$3,840)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.60	1/5	$9,600	$11,700	48%	71%	+$3,599	-$0	0.0%	$4,680 (vs do-nothing +$785)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.55	2/5	$7,530	$9,105	47%	64%	+$472	-$0	0.0%	$6,055 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$15.65	2/5	$5,524	$7,099	45%	63%	+$365	-$0	0.0%	$6,675 (vs do-nothing +$2,780)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.80	1/5	$10,800	$12,900	42%	68%	+$3,391	-$0	0.0%	$4,800 (vs do-nothing +$905)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.05	1/5	$12,050	$14,150	36%	66%	+$3,054	-$0	0.0%	$4,925 (vs do-nothing +$1,030)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 11:04