FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $354.32

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $346.80 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $354.32 UNDERWATER $38.18 (9.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $346.80 (banked floor $331.32) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$10,588/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,020	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,294/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$10,588/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.9 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $346.80 (probe: $347.5C 17d) still earns $7,791/mo (74% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$346.80 → $331.32

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 56 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 47 · %B 53 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.69 (+17%) · daily UBB $369.39 · 1-wk expected move ±$34 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $346.80 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $365 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

69%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$2,450

Income / mo

$24,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $9.41/sh now → $6.66 mid-life (likely $7.90–$13.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,302 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $373 (overshoots $7.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$365	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.50/sh	+$1,751 cycle +$4,201 [+$134…+$1,600] · 77% credit	63% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$371	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$4.54/sh	+$2,268 cycle +$4,718 [-$2…+$1,945] · 75% credit	64% surv 57%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$381	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$1.07/sh	+$537 cycle +$2,987 [-$2,104…+$66] · 28% credit	68% surv 63%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$373	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.25/sh	+$124 cycle +$2,574 [-$2,002…-$263] · 21% credit	68% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$4.65/sh	-$2,325 cycle +$125 [-$5,423…-$2,860]	82% surv 80%
budget: banked $2,450 debit $2,325 (95% used ≈ 0.4 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,763/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $375 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $375)

83%

Touch odds

35%

Per cycle

$1,275

Income / mo

$12,750

Buyback gross: $9.67/sh now → $6.84 mid-life (likely $7.14–$13.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 684 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $382 (overshoots $7.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$375	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.42/sh	+$1,712 cycle +$2,987 [+$367…+$1,931] · 82% credit	63% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$386	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$2.64/sh	+$1,318 cycle +$2,593 [-$760…+$1,437] · 64% credit	66% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$391	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.99/sh	+$497 cycle +$1,772 [-$1,728…+$567] · 39% credit	68% surv 63%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$383	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.15/sh	+$77 cycle +$1,352 [-$1,706…+$157] · 29% credit	67% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$391	31 Jul 2026	8d left	-$2.02/sh	-$1,010 cycle +$265 [-$3,091…-$1,016] · 1% credit	72% surv 68%
budget: banked $1,275 debit $1,010 (79% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$265 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,036/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $425 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $425)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$220

Income / mo

$388

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$425	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.70/sh	+$348 cycle +$568 [+$26…+$1,147] · 77% credit	61% surv 53%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$426	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.41/sh	+$206 cycle +$426 [-$143…+$1,007] · 66% credit	61% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$426	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.41/sh	+$206 cycle +$426 [-$143…+$1,007] · 66% credit	61% surv 53%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,895

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.23	5/5	$6,150	$6,150	91%	92%	+$3,659	-$0	0.0%	$3,635 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$382.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.46	4/5	$5,840	$6,365	90%	91%	+$3,223	-$0	0.0%	$3,779 (vs do-nothing $-116)
$380	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.83	3/5	$5,490	$6,540	88%	89%	+$2,931	-$0	0.0%	$3,919 (vs do-nothing +$24)
$377.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.17	3/5	$6,510	$7,560	85%	87%	+$3,204	-$0	0.0%	$4,021 (vs do-nothing +$126)
$375	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.55	3/5	$7,650	$8,700	83%	85%	+$3,416	-$0	0.0%	$4,135 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$372.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.05	2/5	$6,100	$7,675	80%	83%	+$2,520	-$0	0.0%	$4,155 (vs do-nothing +$260)
$370	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.60	2/5	$7,200	$8,775	77%	81%	+$2,703	-$0	0.0%	$4,265 (vs do-nothing +$370)
$367.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.20	2/5	$8,400	$9,975	73%	79%	+$2,807	-$0	0.0%	$4,385 (vs do-nothing +$490)
$375	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.05	5/5	$6,075	$6,075	71%	74%	$-3,081	-$0	0.0%	$5,045 (vs do-nothing +$1,150)
$365	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.90	2/5	$9,800	$11,375	69%	77%	+$2,914	-$0	0.0%	$4,525 (vs do-nothing +$630)
$372.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	69%	73%	$-3,811	-$0	0.0%	$5,145 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.30	4/5	$6,360	$6,885	67%	71%	$-2,683	-$0	0.0%	$5,315 (vs do-nothing +$1,420)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$5.60	1/5	$5,600	$7,700	65%	74%	+$1,403	-$0	0.0%	$4,280 (vs do-nothing +$385)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.70	4/5	$6,840	$7,365	65%	70%	$-3,171	-$0	0.0%	$5,475 (vs do-nothing +$1,580)
$370	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.55	5/5	$5,779	$5,779	64%	69%	$-4,343	-$0	0.0%	$6,295 (vs do-nothing +$2,400)
$367.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.10	5/5	$6,265	$6,265	63%	68%	$-4,635	-$0	0.0%	$6,570 (vs do-nothing +$2,675)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.70	3/5	$6,030	$7,080	62%	69%	$-2,262	-$0	0.0%	$5,380 (vs do-nothing +$1,485)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.15	4/5	$5,753	$6,278	61%	67%	$-3,624	-$0	0.0%	$6,455 (vs do-nothing +$2,560)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.55	3/5	$6,795	$7,845	60%	67%	$-2,340	-$0	0.0%	$5,635 (vs do-nothing +$1,740)
$365	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.60	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	60%	66%	$-4,382	-$0	0.0%	$7,820 (vs do-nothing +$3,925)
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.80	4/5	$6,212	$6,737	59%	65%	$-3,859	-$0	0.0%	$6,715 (vs do-nothing +$2,820)
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$7,560	$8,610	58%	66%	$-2,480	-$0	0.0%	$5,890 (vs do-nothing +$1,995)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.05	3/5	$5,321	$6,371	57%	65%	$-2,781	-$0	0.0%	$6,385 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$11.45	4/5	$5,725	$6,250	57%	64%	$-3,606	-$0	0.0%	$7,775 (vs do-nothing +$3,880)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.40	1/5	$7,400	$9,500	57%	69%	+$1,341	-$0	0.0%	$4,460 (vs do-nothing +$565)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$5,640	$7,215	55%	65%	$-1,698	-$0	0.0%	$5,425 (vs do-nothing +$1,530)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.80	3/5	$5,718	$6,768	55%	63%	$-2,961	-$0	0.0%	$6,610 (vs do-nothing +$2,715)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.60	4/5	$6,800	$7,325	54%	62%	$-3,647	-$0	0.0%	$8,635 (vs do-nothing +$4,740)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$12.00	3/5	$6,353	$7,403	53%	63%	$-2,931	-$0	0.0%	$6,970 (vs do-nothing +$3,075)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.60	2/5	$6,360	$7,935	53%	63%	$-1,666	-$0	0.0%	$5,665 (vs do-nothing +$1,770)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$8.45	1/5	$8,450	$10,550	52%	67%	+$1,272	-$0	0.0%	$4,565 (vs do-nothing +$670)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$6,909	$7,959	52%	62%	$-3,011	-$0	0.0%	$7,285 (vs do-nothing +$3,390)
$350	24d	14 Aug 2026	$15.80	3/5	$5,925	$6,975	51%	61%	$-2,818	-$0	0.0%	$8,110 (vs do-nothing +$4,215)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$6,990	$8,565	50%	62%	$-1,767	-$0	0.0%	$5,875 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.55	3/5	$7,703	$8,753	50%	61%	$-2,881	-$0	0.0%	$7,735 (vs do-nothing +$3,840)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.55	2/5	$7,530	$9,105	48%	61%	$-2,001	-$0	0.0%	$6,055 (vs do-nothing +$2,160)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.60	1/5	$9,600	$11,700	48%	65%	+$1,173	-$0	0.0%	$4,680 (vs do-nothing +$785)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$15.65	2/5	$5,524	$7,099	48%	60%	$-1,996	-$0	0.0%	$6,675 (vs do-nothing +$2,780)
$347.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$14.00	2/5	$8,400	$9,975	45%	60%	$-1,950	-$0	0.0%	$6,345 (vs do-nothing +$2,450)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.80	1/5	$10,800	$12,900	43%	63%	+$994	-$0	0.0%	$4,800 (vs do-nothing +$905)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.05	1/5	$12,050	$14,150	39%	61%	+$734	-$0	0.0%	$4,925 (vs do-nothing +$1,030)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 11:59