FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $349.28

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.16 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $349.28 UNDERWATER $43.22 (11.0% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 2 days. The recommended CC (3d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.16 (banked floor $322.11) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,559/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$4,250	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,779/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,559/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.6 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.16 (probe: $342.5C 17d) still earns $8,179/mo (71% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.16 → $322.11

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 52 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 37 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.55 (+18%) · daily UBB $369.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$25 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.16 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $367.50 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$3,125

Income / mo

$5,515

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 8 of 17); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.52/sh now → $10.27 mid-life (likely $11.46–$15.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.02/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,483 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 17, at $373 (overshoots $5.04). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$368	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$1.01/sh	+$507 cycle +$3,632 [-$158…+$564] · 58% credit	66% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$368	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.66/sh	+$332 cycle +$3,457 [-$356…+$369] · 43% credit	66% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$368	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.66/sh	+$332 cycle +$3,457 [-$356…+$369] · 43% credit	66% surv 53%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$388	14 Aug 2026	16d left	-$5.85/sh	-$2,927 cycle +$198 [-$4,324…-$3,276]	80% surv 76%
budget: banked $3,125 debit $2,927 (94% used ≈ 2.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$198 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,140/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $365 24 Jul 2026 (3d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

84%

Touch odds

33%

Per cycle

$2,000

Income / mo

$20,000

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 3); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.41/sh now → $7.36 mid-life (likely $8.43–$15.04) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,002 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 3, at $373 (overshoots $8.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$365	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.50/sh	+$1,751 cycle +$3,751 [+$1,085…+$2,182] · 98% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$371	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$4.17/sh	+$2,083 cycle +$4,083 [+$903…+$2,461] · 92% credit	70% surv 58%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$371	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.83/sh	+$417 cycle +$2,417 [-$696…+$666] · 42% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$381	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.35/sh	+$176 cycle +$2,176 [-$1,661…+$326] · 31% credit	75% surv 69%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$3.22/sh	-$1,610 cycle +$390 [-$4,146…-$1,726]	84% surv 81%
budget: banked $2,000 debit $1,610 (80% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$390 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,825/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $395 7 Aug 2026 (17d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$790

Income / mo

$1,394

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$391	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$2.25/sh	+$1,127 cycle +$1,917 [+$1,009…+$2,282] · 100% credit	63% surv 46%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$395	14 Aug 2026	16d left	+$0.11/sh	+$57 cycle +$847 [-$217…+$1,040] · 64% credit	66% surv 52%

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 3-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.736 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,950

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$380	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.35	5/5	$6,750	$6,750	97%	97%	+$6,348	-$0	0.0%	$4,925 (vs do-nothing $-25)
$377.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$1.65	4/5	$6,600	$7,020	96%	96%	+$6,092	-$0	0.0%	$5,050 (vs do-nothing +$100)
$375	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.01	3/5	$6,030	$6,870	94%	95%	+$5,441	-$0	0.0%	$5,133 (vs do-nothing +$183)
$372.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.38	3/5	$7,140	$7,980	92%	94%	+$6,247	-$0	0.0%	$5,244 (vs do-nothing +$294)
$367.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$3.30	2/5	$6,600	$7,860	87%	91%	+$5,313	-$0	0.0%	$5,330 (vs do-nothing +$380)
$365	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.00	2/5	$8,000	$9,260	84%	89%	+$6,164	-$0	0.0%	$5,470 (vs do-nothing +$520)
$370	3d	24 Jul 2026	$2.87	3/5	$8,610	$9,450	81%	84%	+$3,304	-$0	0.0%	$5,391 (vs do-nothing +$441)
$362.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$4.45	2/5	$8,900	$10,160	80%	87%	+$6,334	-$0	0.0%	$5,560 (vs do-nothing +$610)
$370	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.25	5/5	$6,375	$6,375	76%	81%	+$1,647	-$0	0.0%	$6,375 (vs do-nothing +$1,425)
$367.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$4.75	5/5	$7,125	$7,125	74%	79%	+$1,602	-$0	0.0%	$6,625 (vs do-nothing +$1,675)
$365	10d	31 Jul 2026	$5.50	4/5	$6,600	$7,020	71%	77%	+$1,461	-$0	0.0%	$6,590 (vs do-nothing +$1,640)
$365	17d	7 Aug 2026	$6.80	5/5	$6,000	$6,000	69%	76%	+$1,105	-$0	0.0%	$7,650 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)
$362.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	4/5	$7,200	$7,620	68%	75%	+$1,251	-$0	0.0%	$6,790 (vs do-nothing +$1,840)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$7.60	5/5	$6,706	$6,706	67%	75%	+$1,163	-$0	0.0%	$8,050 (vs do-nothing +$3,100)
$360	10d	31 Jul 2026	$6.85	3/5	$6,165	$7,005	66%	74%	+$1,022	-$0	0.0%	$6,585 (vs do-nothing +$1,635)
$357.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/5	$6,000	$7,680	65%	74%	+$1,283	-$0	0.0%	$5,410 (vs do-nothing +$460)
$360	17d	7 Aug 2026	$8.35	4/5	$5,894	$6,314	64%	73%	+$890	-$0	0.0%	$7,730 (vs do-nothing +$2,780)
$360	24d	14 Aug 2026	$9.55	5/5	$5,969	$5,969	63%	73%	+$910	-$0	0.0%	$9,025 (vs do-nothing +$4,075)
$357.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$7.95	3/5	$7,155	$7,995	62%	72%	+$1,253	-$0	0.0%	$6,915 (vs do-nothing +$1,965)
$357.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$9.35	4/5	$6,600	$7,020	61%	71%	+$972	-$0	0.0%	$8,130 (vs do-nothing +$3,180)
$355	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	1/5	$7,200	$8,880	61%	72%	+$1,596	-$0	0.0%	$5,530 (vs do-nothing +$580)
$355	10d	31 Jul 2026	$9.00	3/5	$8,100	$8,940	59%	70%	+$1,358	-$0	0.0%	$7,230 (vs do-nothing +$2,280)
$355	17d	7 Aug 2026	$10.25	4/5	$7,235	$7,655	59%	70%	+$927	-$0	0.0%	$8,490 (vs do-nothing +$3,540)
$355	24d	14 Aug 2026	$12.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,420	58%	70%	+$1,008	-$0	0.0%	$9,190 (vs do-nothing +$4,240)
$352.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$7.85	1/5	$7,850	$9,530	57%	69%	+$1,246	-$0	0.0%	$5,595 (vs do-nothing +$645)
$352.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$10.30	2/5	$6,180	$7,440	56%	69%	+$1,069	-$0	0.0%	$6,730 (vs do-nothing +$1,780)
$352.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$11.30	3/5	$5,982	$6,822	56%	69%	+$697	-$0	0.0%	$7,920 (vs do-nothing +$2,970)
$350	24d	14 Aug 2026	$13.70	4/5	$6,850	$7,270	53%	67%	+$759	-$0	0.0%	$9,870 (vs do-nothing +$4,920)
$350	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.10	3/5	$6,935	$7,775	53%	68%	+$1,050	-$0	0.0%	$8,460 (vs do-nothing +$3,510)
$350	10d	31 Jul 2026	$11.40	2/5	$6,840	$8,100	53%	67%	+$1,053	-$0	0.0%	$6,950 (vs do-nothing +$2,000)
$350	3d	24 Jul 2026	$9.20	1/5	$9,200	$10,880	53%	67%	+$1,477	-$0	0.0%	$5,730 (vs do-nothing +$780)
$347.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$13.50	3/5	$7,147	$7,987	50%	66%	+$616	-$0	0.0%	$8,580 (vs do-nothing +$3,630)
$347.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$12.40	2/5	$7,440	$8,700	49%	66%	+$918	-$0	0.0%	$7,150 (vs do-nothing +$2,200)
$347.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$10.45	1/5	$10,450	$12,130	48%	66%	+$1,487	-$0	0.0%	$5,855 (vs do-nothing +$905)
$345	24d	14 Aug 2026	$16.15	3/5	$6,056	$6,896	47%	65%	+$543	-$0	0.0%	$9,375 (vs do-nothing +$4,425)
$345	17d	7 Aug 2026	$14.65	3/5	$7,756	$8,596	47%	65%	+$533	-$0	0.0%	$8,925 (vs do-nothing +$3,975)
$345	10d	31 Jul 2026	$13.35	2/5	$8,010	$9,270	46%	64%	+$691	-$0	0.0%	$7,340 (vs do-nothing +$2,390)
$345	3d	24 Jul 2026	$11.35	1/5	$11,350	$13,030	44%	64%	+$1,024	-$0	0.0%	$5,945 (vs do-nothing +$995)
$342.50	17d	7 Aug 2026	$16.05	3/5	$8,497	$9,337	44%	63%	+$534	-$0	0.0%	$9,345 (vs do-nothing +$4,395)
$342.50	10d	31 Jul 2026	$14.70	2/5	$8,820	$10,080	42%	63%	+$640	-$0	0.0%	$7,610 (vs do-nothing +$2,660)
$342.50	3d	24 Jul 2026	$12.85	1/5	$12,850	$14,530	40%	62%	+$1,039	-$0	0.0%	$6,095 (vs do-nothing +$1,145)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-21 21:43