FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $347.80

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.89 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $347.80 UNDERWATER $44.70 (11.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.89 (banked floor $322.88) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,906/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,450	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,953/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,906/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.89 (probe: $342.5C 16d) still earns $9,234/mo (78% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.89 → $322.88

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 34 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.39 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$26 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.89 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $365 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$3,725

Income / mo

$4,859

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $362.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

86%

Touch odds

29%

Per cycle

$2,250

Income / mo

$33,750

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.25/sh now → $7.25 mid-life (likely $7.94–$15.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 484 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $368 (overshoots $5.29). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.66/sh	+$1,832 cycle +$4,082 [-$360…+$1,737] · 70% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$370	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$3.15/sh	+$1,573 cycle +$3,823 [-$1,048…+$1,474] · 64% credit	70% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$370	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.65/sh	+$325 cycle +$2,575 [-$2,242…+$131] · 33% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$375	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.48/sh	+$241 cycle +$2,491 [-$2,768…+$17] · 26% credit	71% surv 64%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$4.31/sh	-$2,153 cycle +$97 [-$5,699…-$2,439]	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $2,250 debit $2,153 (96% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$97 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,004/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $385 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$915

Income / mo

$3,050

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.12/sh now → $9.28 mid-life (likely $8.45–$13.78) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.45/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 475 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $392 (overshoots $6.60). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$387	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.82/sh	+$912 cycle +$1,827 [+$428…+$1,822] · 91% credit	68% surv 54%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.81/sh	+$903 cycle +$1,818 [+$404…+$1,486] · 88% credit	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$349 cycle +$1,264 [-$285…+$827] · 59% credit	65% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.70/sh	+$349 cycle +$1,264 [-$285…+$827] · 59% credit	65% surv 54%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$392	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.08/sh	-$40 cycle +$875 [-$650…+$704] · 48% credit	71% surv 61%
budget: banked $915 debit $40 (4% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$875 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,664/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.733 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,160

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$6,900	$6,900	100%	100%	+$6,870	-$0	0.0%	$3,910 (vs do-nothing $-250)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.08	4/5	$6,480	$6,746	99%	99%	+$6,433	-$0	0.0%	$4,024 (vs do-nothing $-136)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	4/5	$7,920	$8,186	99%	99%	+$7,831	-$0	0.0%	$4,120 (vs do-nothing $-40)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	3/5	$7,290	$7,822	98%	99%	+$7,166	-$0	0.0%	$4,220 (vs do-nothing +$60)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/5	$8,865	$9,398	97%	98%	+$8,641	-$0	0.0%	$4,325 (vs do-nothing +$165)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	2/5	$6,900	$7,699	96%	97%	+$6,638	-$0	0.0%	$4,336 (vs do-nothing +$176)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/5	$8,310	$9,109	94%	96%	+$7,865	-$0	0.0%	$4,430 (vs do-nothing +$270)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	2/5	$9,750	$10,549	92%	95%	+$9,016	-$0	0.0%	$4,526 (vs do-nothing +$366)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$11,550	$12,349	89%	94%	+$10,374	-$0	0.0%	$4,646 (vs do-nothing +$486)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	1/5	$6,750	$7,815	86%	92%	+$5,835	-$0	0.0%	$4,468 (vs do-nothing +$308)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	5/5	$7,000	$7,000	78%	82%	+$2,466	-$0	0.0%	$5,550 (vs do-nothing +$1,390)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/5	$9,000	$10,065	76%	87%	+$6,971	-$0	0.0%	$4,618 (vs do-nothing +$458)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/5	$6,133	$6,400	76%	80%	+$1,861	-$0	0.0%	$5,432 (vs do-nothing +$1,272)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$6,933	$7,200	73%	79%	+$1,923	-$0	0.0%	$5,672 (vs do-nothing +$1,512)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	1/5	$10,275	$11,340	71%	85%	+$7,380	-$0	0.0%	$4,703 (vs do-nothing +$543)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$6,000	$6,532	70%	77%	+$1,615	-$0	0.0%	$5,534 (vs do-nothing +$1,374)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$6,800	$7,333	68%	75%	+$1,709	-$0	0.0%	$5,774 (vs do-nothing +$1,614)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	5/5	$6,562	$6,562	67%	73%	$-257	-$0	0.0%	$6,950 (vs do-nothing +$2,790)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/5	$7,200	$7,732	64%	73%	+$1,319	-$0	0.0%	$5,894 (vs do-nothing +$1,734)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,266	64%	72%	$-68	-$0	0.0%	$6,792 (vs do-nothing +$2,632)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	1/5	$11,700	$12,765	64%	82%	+$7,680	-$0	0.0%	$4,798 (vs do-nothing +$638)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.85	4/5	$6,638	$6,904	62%	70%	$-93	-$0	0.0%	$7,132 (vs do-nothing +$2,972)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.45	3/5	$8,450	$8,982	61%	72%	+$1,691	-$0	0.0%	$6,269 (vs do-nothing +$2,109)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.70	5/5	$6,978	$6,978	60%	71%	+$1,058	-$0	0.0%	$8,800 (vs do-nothing +$4,640)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.45	4/5	$7,088	$7,354	59%	69%	$-358	-$0	0.0%	$7,372 (vs do-nothing +$3,212)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.50	2/5	$6,333	$7,132	58%	70%	+$1,195	-$0	0.0%	$5,776 (vs do-nothing +$1,616)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,190	57%	79%	+$7,689	-$0	0.0%	$4,893 (vs do-nothing +$733)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,875	$8,141	57%	67%	$-340	-$0	0.0%	$7,792 (vs do-nothing +$3,632)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$7,000	$7,799	55%	69%	+$1,144	-$0	0.0%	$5,976 (vs do-nothing +$1,816)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$12.60	4/5	$6,574	$6,840	54%	68%	+$746	-$0	0.0%	$8,632 (vs do-nothing +$4,472)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$6,581	$7,114	54%	66%	$-198	-$0	0.0%	$7,244 (vs do-nothing +$3,084)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.00	3/5	$7,312	$7,845	52%	65%	$-128	-$0	0.0%	$7,634 (vs do-nothing +$3,474)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.60	2/5	$7,733	$8,532	51%	67%	+$1,094	-$0	0.0%	$6,196 (vs do-nothing +$2,036)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.15	4/5	$7,904	$8,171	50%	63%	$-996	-$0	0.0%	$9,652 (vs do-nothing +$5,492)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	1/5	$15,000	$16,065	50%	77%	+$7,836	-$0	0.0%	$5,018 (vs do-nothing +$858)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.80	3/5	$7,762	$8,295	49%	64%	$-381	-$0	0.0%	$7,874 (vs do-nothing +$3,714)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.70	2/5	$8,467	$9,265	48%	65%	+$975	-$0	0.0%	$6,416 (vs do-nothing +$2,256)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.15	3/5	$8,522	$9,054	47%	63%	$-368	-$0	0.0%	$8,279 (vs do-nothing +$4,119)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	2/5	$9,400	$10,199	44%	64%	+$1,010	-$0	0.0%	$6,696 (vs do-nothing +$2,536)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.05	1/5	$16,575	$17,640	43%	73%	+$7,361	-$0	0.0%	$5,123 (vs do-nothing +$963)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.30	1/5	$18,450	$19,515	36%	71%	+$6,870	-$0	0.0%	$5,248 (vs do-nothing +$1,088)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:15