FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $347.89

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.99 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $347.89 UNDERWATER $44.61 (11.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.99 (banked floor $322.98) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,822/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,450	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,911/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,822/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.99 (probe: $342.5C 16d) still earns $9,150/mo (77% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.99 → $322.98

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 44 · %B 34 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.39 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.24 · 1-wk expected move ±$25 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.99 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $342.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $342.50)

35%

Touch odds

100%

Per cycle

$6,150

Income / mo

$92,250

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$342	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.94/sh	+$1,972 cycle +$8,122	67% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$350	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.79/sh	+$395 cycle +$6,545	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$360	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.09/sh	+$45 cycle +$6,195	76% surv 70%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$385	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$5.07/sh	-$2,534 cycle +$3,616	91% surv 90%
budget: banked $6,150 debit $2,534 (41% used ≈ 0.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$3,616 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,721/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $362.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

86%

Touch odds

29%

Per cycle

$2,250

Income / mo

$33,750

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.16/sh now → $7.19 mid-life (likely $7.90–$15.23) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.69/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 485 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $368 (overshoots $5.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.69/sh	+$1,843 cycle +$4,093 [-$311…+$1,742] · 71% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$370	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$3.21/sh	+$1,604 cycle +$3,854 [-$917…+$1,509] · 64% credit	70% surv 60%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$370	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.71/sh	+$356 cycle +$2,606 [-$2,159…+$156] · 35% credit	72% surv 62%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$375	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.46/sh	+$231 cycle +$2,481 [-$2,505…+$40] · 28% credit	74% surv 66%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$400	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$4.24/sh	-$2,122 cycle +$128 [-$5,613…-$2,424]	87% surv 85%
budget: banked $2,250 debit $2,122 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$128 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,005/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $385 31 Jul 2026 (9d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $385)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$915

Income / mo

$3,050

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 9); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.07/sh now → $9.24 mid-life (likely $8.39–$13.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.41/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 479 simulated challenges: the $385 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 9, at $391 (overshoots $6.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$387	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$1.87/sh	+$933 cycle +$1,848 [+$464…+$1,832] · 92% credit	67% surv 54%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$385	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$1.80/sh	+$900 cycle +$1,815 [+$419…+$1,492] · 89% credit	64% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$369 cycle +$1,284 [-$222…+$859] · 60% credit	65% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$387	7 Aug 2026	12d left	+$0.74/sh	+$369 cycle +$1,284 [-$222…+$859] · 60% credit	65% surv 54%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$392	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$0.04/sh	-$19 cycle +$896 [-$602…+$748] · 50% credit	71% surv 60%
budget: banked $915 debit $19 (2% used ≈ 0.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$896 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,668/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (41 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 41 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.733 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,460

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$6,900	$6,900	100%	100%	+$6,871	-$0	0.0%	$3,910 (vs do-nothing $-550)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.08	4/5	$6,480	$6,859	99%	99%	+$6,433	-$0	0.0%	$4,084 (vs do-nothing $-376)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	3/5	$5,940	$6,698	99%	99%	+$5,873	-$0	0.0%	$4,250 (vs do-nothing $-210)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.62	3/5	$7,290	$8,048	98%	99%	+$7,165	-$0	0.0%	$4,340 (vs do-nothing $-120)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.97	3/5	$8,865	$9,622	97%	98%	+$8,640	-$0	0.0%	$4,445 (vs do-nothing $-15)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.30	2/5	$6,900	$8,036	96%	97%	+$6,637	-$0	0.0%	$4,516 (vs do-nothing +$56)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.77	2/5	$8,310	$9,446	94%	96%	+$7,863	-$0	0.0%	$4,610 (vs do-nothing +$150)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.25	2/5	$9,750	$10,886	92%	95%	+$9,011	-$0	0.0%	$4,706 (vs do-nothing +$246)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	2/5	$11,550	$12,686	89%	94%	+$10,366	-$0	0.0%	$4,826 (vs do-nothing +$366)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.50	1/5	$6,750	$8,265	86%	92%	+$5,829	-$0	0.0%	$4,708 (vs do-nothing +$248)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.20	5/5	$7,000	$7,000	78%	82%	+$2,436	-$0	0.0%	$5,550 (vs do-nothing +$1,090)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.00	1/5	$9,000	$10,515	76%	87%	+$6,956	-$0	0.0%	$4,858 (vs do-nothing +$398)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.60	4/5	$6,133	$6,512	76%	80%	+$1,833	-$0	0.0%	$5,492 (vs do-nothing +$1,032)

Show 28 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$6,933	$7,312	73%	79%	+$1,892	-$0	0.0%	$5,732 (vs do-nothing +$1,272)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.85	1/5	$10,275	$11,790	70%	85%	+$7,357	-$0	0.0%	$4,943 (vs do-nothing +$483)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.00	3/5	$6,000	$6,758	70%	77%	+$1,589	-$0	0.0%	$5,654 (vs do-nothing +$1,194)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.00	5/5	$6,562	$6,562	68%	76%	+$1,290	-$0	0.0%	$6,950 (vs do-nothing +$2,490)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.80	3/5	$6,800	$7,558	67%	75%	+$1,680	-$0	0.0%	$5,894 (vs do-nothing +$1,434)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	4/5	$6,000	$6,379	66%	74%	+$1,220	-$0	0.0%	$6,852 (vs do-nothing +$2,392)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.20	3/5	$7,200	$7,958	64%	73%	+$1,286	-$0	0.0%	$6,014 (vs do-nothing +$1,554)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.85	4/5	$6,638	$7,016	63%	73%	+$1,238	-$0	0.0%	$7,192 (vs do-nothing +$2,732)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.45	3/5	$8,450	$9,208	61%	72%	+$1,655	-$0	0.0%	$6,389 (vs do-nothing +$1,929)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.45	4/5	$7,088	$7,466	60%	71%	+$1,009	-$0	0.0%	$7,432 (vs do-nothing +$2,972)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.70	5/5	$6,978	$6,978	60%	71%	+$1,033	-$0	0.0%	$8,800 (vs do-nothing +$4,340)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.80	1/5	$11,700	$13,215	60%	73%	+$3,733	-$0	0.0%	$5,038 (vs do-nothing +$578)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.50	2/5	$6,333	$7,470	58%	70%	+$1,154	-$0	0.0%	$5,956 (vs do-nothing +$1,496)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,875	$8,254	57%	67%	$-347	-$0	0.0%	$7,852 (vs do-nothing +$3,392)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,640	55%	70%	+$3,611	-$0	0.0%	$5,133 (vs do-nothing +$673)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$7,000	$8,136	55%	68%	+$1,108	-$0	0.0%	$6,156 (vs do-nothing +$1,696)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$12.60	4/5	$6,574	$6,953	54%	68%	+$723	-$0	0.0%	$8,692 (vs do-nothing +$4,232)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$6,581	$7,339	54%	66%	$-205	-$0	0.0%	$7,364 (vs do-nothing +$2,904)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.00	3/5	$7,312	$8,070	52%	65%	$-136	-$0	0.0%	$7,754 (vs do-nothing +$3,294)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.60	2/5	$7,733	$8,870	51%	67%	+$1,064	-$0	0.0%	$6,376 (vs do-nothing +$1,916)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	1/5	$15,000	$16,515	50%	76%	+$7,783	-$0	0.0%	$5,258 (vs do-nothing +$798)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.80	3/5	$7,762	$8,520	49%	64%	$-390	-$0	0.0%	$7,994 (vs do-nothing +$3,534)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.15	3/5	$5,928	$6,686	49%	66%	+$597	-$0	0.0%	$8,399 (vs do-nothing +$3,939)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.70	2/5	$8,467	$9,603	48%	65%	+$953	-$0	0.0%	$6,596 (vs do-nothing +$2,136)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.15	3/5	$8,522	$9,279	47%	63%	$-379	-$0	0.0%	$8,399 (vs do-nothing +$3,939)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	2/5	$9,400	$10,536	44%	64%	+$974	-$0	0.0%	$6,876 (vs do-nothing +$2,416)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.05	1/5	$16,575	$18,090	42%	73%	+$7,296	-$0	0.0%	$5,363 (vs do-nothing +$903)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.30	1/5	$18,450	$19,965	35%	70%	+$6,794	-$0	0.0%	$5,488 (vs do-nothing +$1,028)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 14:45