FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $346.62

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.94 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $346.62 UNDERWATER $45.88 (11.7% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.94 (banked floor $322.94) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$11,953/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,000	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$5,977/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$11,953/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.5 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.94 (probe: $340C 16d) still earns $9,502/mo (79% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.94 → $322.94

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 53 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 42 · %B 30 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.43 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.20 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.94 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $362.50 7 Aug 2026 (16d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

70%

Touch odds

63%

Per cycle

$3,425

Income / mo

$6,422

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$361	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$1.67/sh	+$836 cycle +$4,261 [+$61…+$786] · 83% credit	66% surv 49%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	14 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.92/sh	+$462 cycle +$3,887 [-$336…+$369] · 44% credit	67% surv 52%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$381	14 Aug 2026	15d left	-$6.06/sh	-$3,029 cycle +$396 [-$4,602…-$3,505]	79% surv 74%
budget: banked $3,425 debit $3,029 (88% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$396 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,749/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $357.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $357.50)

82%

Touch odds

36%

Per cycle

$2,875

Income / mo

$43,125

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $11.61/sh now → $8.21 mid-life (likely $9.13–$17.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.46/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 668 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $362 (overshoots $4.50). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$361	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$4.47/sh	+$2,237 cycle +$5,112 [-$795…+$2,041] · 66% credit	69% surv 56%
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$358	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.11/sh	+$1,557 cycle +$4,432 [-$1,327…+$1,316] · 57% credit	67% surv 52%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$371	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$0.49/sh	+$243 cycle +$3,118 [-$3,164…-$41] · 24% credit	74% surv 66%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$363	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.26/sh	+$130 cycle +$3,005 [-$3,068…-$178] · 19% credit	71% surv 60%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$5.36/sh	-$2,681 cycle +$194 [-$6,744…-$3,091]	87% surv 86%
budget: banked $2,875 debit $2,681 (93% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$194 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,942/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$740

Income / mo

$11,100

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$2.76/sh	+$1,379 cycle +$2,119	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$381	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$1.33/sh	+$664 cycle +$1,404	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$386	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.28/sh	+$140 cycle +$880	71% surv 62%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$391	7 Aug 2026	15d left	-$1.36/sh	-$682 cycle +$58	75% surv 67%
budget: banked $740 debit $682 (92% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$58 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,307/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (45 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 45 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.734 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $3,950

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$385	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.83	5/5	$6,225	$6,225	100%	100%	+$6,222	-$0	0.0%	$3,415 (vs do-nothing $-535)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.82	3/5	$8,190	$8,902	99%	99%	+$8,142	-$0	0.0%	$3,926 (vs do-nothing $-24)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.21	2/5	$6,630	$7,699	98%	99%	+$6,563	-$0	0.0%	$4,012 (vs do-nothing +$62)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.10	2/5	$9,300	$10,369	96%	98%	+$9,046	-$0	0.0%	$4,190 (vs do-nothing +$240)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.65	2/5	$10,950	$12,019	94%	97%	+$10,484	-$0	0.0%	$4,300 (vs do-nothing +$350)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.99	5/5	$7,425	$7,425	93%	94%	+$4,606	-$0	0.0%	$3,495 (vs do-nothing $-455)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.25	4/5	$7,500	$7,856	92%	92%	+$4,509	-$0	0.0%	$3,690 (vs do-nothing $-260)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.25	1/5	$6,375	$7,800	91%	95%	+$5,965	-$0	0.0%	$4,185 (vs do-nothing +$235)
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.48	3/5	$6,660	$7,372	90%	91%	+$3,714	-$0	0.0%	$3,824 (vs do-nothing $-126)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.67	2/5	$8,010	$9,079	84%	87%	+$4,093	-$0	0.0%	$4,104 (vs do-nothing +$154)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.75	1/5	$8,625	$10,050	82%	92%	+$7,496	-$0	0.0%	$4,335 (vs do-nothing +$385)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	5/5	$6,667	$6,667	79%	83%	+$2,349	-$0	0.0%	$5,000 (vs do-nothing +$1,050)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.40	5/5	$7,333	$7,333	77%	81%	+$2,258	-$0	0.0%	$5,200 (vs do-nothing +$1,250)

Show 32 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	1/5	$9,900	$11,325	76%	90%	+$8,136	-$0	0.0%	$4,420 (vs do-nothing +$470)
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.10	4/5	$6,800	$7,156	74%	79%	+$2,047	-$0	0.0%	$5,230 (vs do-nothing +$1,280)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$7,667	$8,023	72%	78%	+$2,126	-$0	0.0%	$5,490 (vs do-nothing +$1,540)
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$6.85	5/5	$6,422	$6,422	70%	76%	+$1,396	-$0	0.0%	$6,425 (vs do-nothing +$2,475)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.50	1/5	$11,250	$12,675	69%	88%	+$8,595	-$0	0.0%	$4,510 (vs do-nothing +$560)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.60	3/5	$6,600	$7,312	69%	76%	+$1,778	-$0	0.0%	$5,360 (vs do-nothing +$1,410)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.65	5/5	$7,172	$7,172	67%	75%	+$1,466	-$0	0.0%	$6,825 (vs do-nothing +$2,875)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.30	3/5	$7,300	$8,012	66%	74%	+$1,671	-$0	0.0%	$5,570 (vs do-nothing +$1,620)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.65	4/5	$6,488	$6,844	64%	73%	+$1,324	-$0	0.0%	$6,650 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.25	3/5	$8,250	$8,962	63%	73%	+$1,772	-$0	0.0%	$5,855 (vs do-nothing +$1,905)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$9.30	4/5	$6,975	$7,331	62%	72%	+$1,154	-$0	0.0%	$6,910 (vs do-nothing +$2,960)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$10.60	5/5	$6,913	$6,913	61%	72%	+$1,207	-$0	0.0%	$8,300 (vs do-nothing +$4,350)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.05	2/5	$6,033	$7,102	60%	71%	+$1,103	-$0	0.0%	$5,380 (vs do-nothing +$1,430)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.50	4/5	$7,875	$8,231	59%	71%	+$1,335	-$0	0.0%	$7,390 (vs do-nothing +$3,440)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,550	57%	71%	+$3,358	-$0	0.0%	$4,635 (vs do-nothing +$685)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.50	2/5	$7,000	$8,069	56%	70%	+$1,417	-$0	0.0%	$5,670 (vs do-nothing +$1,720)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$6,581	$7,294	56%	69%	+$1,090	-$0	0.0%	$6,890 (vs do-nothing +$2,940)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$13.00	4/5	$6,783	$7,139	56%	69%	+$1,155	-$0	0.0%	$8,390 (vs do-nothing +$4,440)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$9.90	1/5	$14,850	$16,275	54%	82%	+$9,458	-$0	0.0%	$4,750 (vs do-nothing +$800)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$12.75	3/5	$7,172	$7,884	53%	68%	+$1,045	-$0	0.0%	$7,205 (vs do-nothing +$3,255)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.45	2/5	$7,633	$8,702	53%	68%	+$1,364	-$0	0.0%	$5,860 (vs do-nothing +$1,910)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.25	4/5	$7,957	$8,313	50%	67%	+$1,103	-$0	0.0%	$9,290 (vs do-nothing +$5,340)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$14.10	3/5	$7,931	$8,644	50%	67%	+$1,118	-$0	0.0%	$7,610 (vs do-nothing +$3,660)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$12.80	2/5	$8,533	$9,602	49%	67%	+$1,378	-$0	0.0%	$6,130 (vs do-nothing +$2,180)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.00	1/5	$16,500	$17,925	49%	67%	+$3,198	-$0	0.0%	$4,860 (vs do-nothing +$910)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.30	3/5	$8,606	$9,319	47%	66%	+$1,057	-$0	0.0%	$7,970 (vs do-nothing +$4,020)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.40	2/5	$9,600	$10,669	46%	65%	+$1,568	-$0	0.0%	$6,450 (vs do-nothing +$2,500)
$340	23d	14 Aug 2026	$17.80	3/5	$6,965	$7,678	45%	65%	+$778	-$0	0.0%	$8,720 (vs do-nothing +$4,770)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.25	1/5	$18,375	$19,800	44%	65%	+$3,041	-$0	0.0%	$4,985 (vs do-nothing +$1,035)
$340	16d	7 Aug 2026	$16.75	2/5	$6,281	$7,350	44%	64%	+$724	-$0	0.0%	$6,920 (vs do-nothing +$2,970)
$340	9d	31 Jul 2026	$15.40	2/5	$10,267	$11,335	43%	64%	+$1,263	-$0	0.0%	$6,650 (vs do-nothing +$2,700)
$340	2d	24 Jul 2026	$13.75	1/5	$20,625	$22,050	40%	63%	+$3,080	-$0	0.0%	$5,135 (vs do-nothing +$1,185)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 21:51