FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $347.74

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $339.25 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $347.74 UNDERWATER $44.76 (11.4% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (2d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $339.25 (banked floor $323.27) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$12,384/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,300	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,192/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,384/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $339.25 (probe: $342.5C 16d) still earns $10,041/mo (81% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$339.25 → $323.27

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 32 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.49 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.14 · 1-wk expected move ±$24 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $339.25 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $365 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $365)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$3,825

Income / mo

$4,989

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $367.50 24 Jul 2026 (2d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $367.50)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$1,465

Income / mo

$21,975

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 1 of 2); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $10.58/sh now → $7.48 mid-life (likely $7.80–$15.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.93/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.55/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 221 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 2, at $372 (overshoots $4.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$368	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$3.81/sh	+$1,905 cycle +$3,370 [-$499…+$1,898] · 68% credit	67% surv 52%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$375	14 Aug 2026	22d left	+$3.42/sh	+$1,712 cycle +$3,177 [-$939…+$1,787] · 64% credit	71% surv 60%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$380	7 Aug 2026	15d left	+$0.44/sh	+$222 cycle +$1,687 [-$2,683…+$185] · 35% credit	75% surv 66%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$375	31 Jul 2026	8d left	+$0.54/sh	+$268 cycle +$1,733 [-$2,498…+$187] · 34% credit	72% surv 62%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	14 Aug 2026	22d left	-$2.76/sh	-$1,381 cycle +$84 [-$4,791…-$1,467]	82% surv 79%
budget: banked $1,465 debit $1,381 (94% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $3,219/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $395 14 Aug 2026 (23d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $395)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,025

Income / mo

$1,337

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (40 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 2-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 40 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.736 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,060

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$377.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.32	4/5	$7,920	$8,205	99%	99%	+$7,834	-$0	0.0%	$3,980 (vs do-nothing $-80)
$382.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$0.92	5/5	$6,900	$6,900	93%	94%	+$4,122	-$0	0.0%	$3,760 (vs do-nothing $-300)
$380	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.13	4/5	$6,780	$7,065	92%	92%	+$3,869	-$0	0.0%	$3,904 (vs do-nothing $-156)
$375	2d	24 Jul 2026	$1.67	3/5	$7,515	$8,085	88%	89%	+$3,809	-$0	0.0%	$4,105 (vs do-nothing +$45)
$372.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.00	3/5	$9,000	$9,570	86%	88%	+$4,213	-$0	0.0%	$4,204 (vs do-nothing +$144)
$370	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.43	2/5	$7,290	$8,145	83%	86%	+$3,198	-$0	0.0%	$4,242 (vs do-nothing +$182)
$367.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$2.93	2/5	$8,790	$9,645	81%	84%	+$3,589	-$0	0.0%	$4,342 (vs do-nothing +$282)
$370	9d	31 Jul 2026	$3.95	5/5	$6,583	$6,583	78%	82%	+$1,981	-$0	0.0%	$5,275 (vs do-nothing +$1,215)
$365	2d	24 Jul 2026	$3.50	2/5	$10,500	$11,355	78%	82%	+$3,949	-$0	0.0%	$4,456 (vs do-nothing +$396)
$367.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$4.70	4/5	$6,267	$6,552	76%	80%	+$1,936	-$0	0.0%	$5,332 (vs do-nothing +$1,272)
$362.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$4.05	2/5	$12,150	$13,005	74%	80%	+$3,979	-$0	0.0%	$4,566 (vs do-nothing +$506)
$365	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.40	4/5	$7,200	$7,485	73%	79%	+$2,128	-$0	0.0%	$5,612 (vs do-nothing +$1,552)
$362.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$5.90	4/5	$7,867	$8,152	70%	77%	+$1,952	-$0	0.0%	$5,812 (vs do-nothing +$1,752)

Show 27 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/5	$6,797	$6,797	69%	76%	+$1,656	-$0	0.0%	$6,925 (vs do-nothing +$2,865)
$360	9d	31 Jul 2026	$6.90	3/5	$6,900	$7,470	67%	75%	+$1,752	-$0	0.0%	$5,674 (vs do-nothing +$1,614)
$357.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$5.70	1/5	$8,550	$9,690	67%	75%	+$2,399	-$0	0.0%	$4,478 (vs do-nothing +$418)
$360	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.30	4/5	$6,225	$6,510	66%	75%	+$1,548	-$0	0.0%	$6,772 (vs do-nothing +$2,712)
$357.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$7.70	3/5	$7,700	$8,270	64%	74%	+$1,774	-$0	0.0%	$5,914 (vs do-nothing +$1,854)
$357.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$8.95	4/5	$6,712	$6,998	63%	73%	+$1,412	-$0	0.0%	$7,032 (vs do-nothing +$2,972)
$355	2d	24 Jul 2026	$6.60	1/5	$9,900	$11,040	63%	73%	+$2,480	-$0	0.0%	$4,568 (vs do-nothing +$508)
$355	9d	31 Jul 2026	$8.55	3/5	$8,550	$9,120	61%	72%	+$1,717	-$0	0.0%	$6,169 (vs do-nothing +$2,109)
$355	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.00	4/5	$7,500	$7,785	60%	72%	+$1,515	-$0	0.0%	$7,452 (vs do-nothing +$3,392)
$355	23d	14 Aug 2026	$11.25	5/5	$7,337	$7,337	60%	71%	+$1,451	-$0	0.0%	$8,925 (vs do-nothing +$4,865)
$352.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$7.70	1/5	$11,550	$12,690	59%	71%	+$2,699	-$0	0.0%	$4,678 (vs do-nothing +$618)
$352.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$9.60	2/5	$6,400	$7,255	58%	70%	+$1,190	-$0	0.0%	$5,676 (vs do-nothing +$1,616)
$352.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$10.95	4/5	$8,212	$8,498	58%	70%	+$1,479	-$0	0.0%	$7,832 (vs do-nothing +$3,772)
$350	2d	24 Jul 2026	$8.75	1/5	$13,125	$14,265	55%	69%	+$2,676	-$0	0.0%	$4,783 (vs do-nothing +$723)
$350	9d	31 Jul 2026	$10.75	2/5	$7,167	$8,022	55%	69%	+$1,238	-$0	0.0%	$5,906 (vs do-nothing +$1,846)
$350	16d	7 Aug 2026	$12.10	3/5	$6,806	$7,376	55%	69%	+$1,146	-$0	0.0%	$7,234 (vs do-nothing +$3,174)
$350	23d	14 Aug 2026	$13.45	4/5	$7,017	$7,302	55%	69%	+$1,210	-$0	0.0%	$8,832 (vs do-nothing +$4,772)
$347.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$13.45	3/5	$7,566	$8,136	52%	67%	+$1,244	-$0	0.0%	$7,639 (vs do-nothing +$3,579)
$347.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$11.95	2/5	$7,967	$8,822	51%	67%	+$1,253	-$0	0.0%	$6,146 (vs do-nothing +$2,086)
$347.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$9.95	1/5	$14,925	$16,065	50%	78%	+$8,280	-$0	0.0%	$4,903 (vs do-nothing +$843)
$345	23d	14 Aug 2026	$15.95	3/5	$6,241	$6,811	49%	66%	+$932	-$0	0.0%	$8,389 (vs do-nothing +$4,329)
$345	16d	7 Aug 2026	$14.70	3/5	$8,269	$8,839	49%	66%	+$1,235	-$0	0.0%	$8,014 (vs do-nothing +$3,954)
$345	9d	31 Jul 2026	$13.20	2/5	$8,800	$9,655	47%	67%	+$1,772	-$0	0.0%	$6,396 (vs do-nothing +$2,336)
$342.50	16d	7 Aug 2026	$15.95	3/5	$8,972	$9,542	45%	65%	+$1,174	-$0	0.0%	$8,389 (vs do-nothing +$4,329)
$342.50	9d	31 Jul 2026	$14.55	2/5	$9,700	$10,555	45%	64%	+$1,216	-$0	0.0%	$6,666 (vs do-nothing +$2,606)
$345	2d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	1/5	$16,800	$17,940	42%	76%	+$8,098	-$0	0.0%	$5,028 (vs do-nothing +$968)
$342.50	2d	24 Jul 2026	$12.55	1/5	$18,825	$19,965	35%	73%	+$7,727	-$0	0.0%	$5,163 (vs do-nothing +$1,103)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-22 23:04