FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $347.12

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.58 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $347.12 UNDERWATER $45.38 (11.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.58 (banked floor $322.56) | IV: HIGH | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$13,050/mo	95% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,312	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,525/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$13,050/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.58 (probe: $342.5C 15d) still earns $10,930/mo (84% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.58 → $322.56

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 51 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 31 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.49 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.16 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.58 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $362.50 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$3,625

Income / mo

$7,250

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.57/sh now → $10.30 mid-life (likely $11.93–$16.18) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,555 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 15, at $368 (overshoots $5.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.56/sh	+$780 cycle +$4,405 [+$123…+$802] · 87% credit	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$365	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.26/sh	+$132 cycle +$3,757 [-$588…+$50] · 27% credit	70% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$365	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.26/sh	+$132 cycle +$3,757 [-$588…+$50] · 27% credit	70% surv 56%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$385	14 Aug 2026	14d left	-$6.36/sh	-$3,178 cycle +$447 [-$4,735…-$3,653]	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $3,625 debit $3,178 (88% used ≈ 1.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$447 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,226/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$2,000

Income / mo

$7,500

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.01/sh now → $9.20 mid-life (likely $9.29–$14.74) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 912 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $376 (overshoots $5.92). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.22/sh	+$1,110 cycle +$3,110 [+$512…+$1,654] · 96% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$373	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.71/sh	+$1,355 cycle +$3,355 [+$572…+$1,949] · 94% credit	69% surv 55%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$373	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.96/sh	+$481 cycle +$2,481 [-$191…+$896] · 62% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$378	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.57/sh	+$285 cycle +$2,285 [-$712…+$656] · 45% credit	72% surv 61%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$388	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$2.87/sh	-$1,435 cycle +$565 [-$2,838…-$1,241] · 8% credit	78% surv 72%
budget: banked $2,000 debit $1,435 (72% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$565 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,273/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $390 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$1,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.63/sh	+$817 cycle +$1,717 [+$704…+$1,868] · 99% credit	66% surv 48%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.65/sh	+$327 cycle +$1,227 [+$158…+$1,317] · 83% credit	67% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	14 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.65/sh	-$323 cycle +$577 [-$602…+$585] · 45% credit	69% surv 56%
budget: banked $900 debit $323 (36% used ≈ 0.8 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$577 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,181/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (24 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 24 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.735 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,212

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.00	5/5	$7,500	$7,500	80%	84%	+$3,302	-$0	0.0%	$5,312 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$367.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.55	4/5	$6,825	$7,185	78%	82%	+$2,804	-$0	0.0%	$5,312 (vs do-nothing +$1,100)
$365	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.20	4/5	$7,800	$8,160	75%	80%	+$3,011	-$0	0.0%	$5,572 (vs do-nothing +$1,360)
$362.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.85	3/5	$6,581	$7,301	72%	79%	+$2,328	-$0	0.0%	$5,428 (vs do-nothing +$1,215)
$362.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.25	5/5	$7,250	$7,250	70%	77%	+$2,223	-$0	0.0%	$6,938 (vs do-nothing +$2,725)
$360	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.65	3/5	$7,481	$8,201	69%	77%	+$2,473	-$0	0.0%	$5,668 (vs do-nothing +$1,455)
$360	15d	7 Aug 2026	$8.10	5/5	$8,100	$8,100	67%	75%	+$2,348	-$0	0.0%	$7,362 (vs do-nothing +$3,150)
$357.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$7.45	3/5	$8,381	$9,101	66%	75%	+$2,520	-$0	0.0%	$5,908 (vs do-nothing +$1,695)
$357.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$9.00	4/5	$7,200	$7,560	64%	74%	+$1,956	-$0	0.0%	$7,092 (vs do-nothing +$2,880)
$355	8d	31 Jul 2026	$8.40	3/5	$9,450	$10,170	63%	73%	+$2,631	-$0	0.0%	$6,192 (vs do-nothing +$1,980)
$355	15d	7 Aug 2026	$9.95	4/5	$7,960	$8,320	61%	72%	+$2,008	-$0	0.0%	$7,472 (vs do-nothing +$3,260)
$355	22d	14 Aug 2026	$11.20	5/5	$7,636	$7,636	61%	72%	+$1,841	-$0	0.0%	$8,912 (vs do-nothing +$4,700)
$352.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$9.40	2/5	$7,050	$8,130	59%	72%	+$1,793	-$0	0.0%	$5,732 (vs do-nothing +$1,520)

Show 11 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$10.95	3/5	$6,570	$7,290	58%	71%	+$1,524	-$0	0.0%	$6,958 (vs do-nothing +$2,745)
$350	8d	31 Jul 2026	$10.55	2/5	$7,912	$8,992	56%	70%	+$1,869	-$0	0.0%	$5,962 (vs do-nothing +$1,750)
$350	15d	7 Aug 2026	$12.05	3/5	$7,230	$7,950	55%	69%	+$1,550	-$0	0.0%	$7,288 (vs do-nothing +$3,075)
$350	22d	14 Aug 2026	$13.35	4/5	$7,282	$7,642	55%	69%	+$1,520	-$0	0.0%	$8,832 (vs do-nothing +$4,620)
$347.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$13.05	3/5	$7,830	$8,550	52%	68%	+$1,370	-$0	0.0%	$7,588 (vs do-nothing +$3,375)
$347.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	2/5	$8,738	$9,818	52%	68%	+$1,831	-$0	0.0%	$6,182 (vs do-nothing +$1,970)
$345	22d	14 Aug 2026	$15.55	4/5	$8,482	$8,842	50%	67%	+$1,412	-$0	0.0%	$9,712 (vs do-nothing +$5,500)
$345	15d	7 Aug 2026	$14.50	3/5	$8,700	$9,420	49%	67%	+$1,587	-$0	0.0%	$8,022 (vs do-nothing +$3,810)
$345	8d	31 Jul 2026	$12.95	2/5	$9,712	$10,792	49%	67%	+$1,866	-$0	0.0%	$6,442 (vs do-nothing +$2,230)
$342.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$15.55	3/5	$9,330	$10,050	46%	65%	+$1,402	-$0	0.0%	$8,338 (vs do-nothing +$4,125)
$342.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$13.85	2/5	$10,388	$11,468	45%	65%	+$1,521	-$0	0.0%	$6,622 (vs do-nothing +$2,410)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:47