FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC310 @ $346.88

BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.33 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC310 @ $346.88 UNDERWATER $45.62 (11.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TOMORROW. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $338.33 (banked floor $322.29) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782

LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$41,250	(ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500
Normal income ref	$12,950/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$3,312	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$6,475/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$12,950/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $41,250

ML VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $41,250

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $338.33 (probe: $340C 15d) still earns $9,475/mo (73% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$5,535

Hole (after banked)

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$338.33 → $322.29

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 50 (live) · RSI 54 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 30 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.49 (+19%) · daily UBB $369.17 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $338.33 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $362.50 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $362.50)

70%

Touch odds

62%

Per cycle

$3,575

Income / mo

$7,150

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.66/sh now → $10.37 mid-life (likely $12.01–$16.19) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 1,542 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 15, at $368 (overshoots $5.01). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$362	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.53/sh	+$765 cycle +$4,340 [+$93…+$789] · 85% credit	68% surv 52%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$366	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$24 cycle +$3,599 [-$738…-$69] · 23% credit	70% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$366	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.05/sh	+$24 cycle +$3,599 [-$738…-$69] · 23% credit	70% surv 56%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$386	14 Aug 2026	14d left	-$6.54/sh	-$3,272 cycle +$303 [-$4,876…-$3,756]	83% surv 80%
budget: banked $3,575 debit $3,272 (92% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$303 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,099/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

80%

Touch odds

40%

Per cycle

$1,975

Income / mo

$7,406

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.15/sh now → $9.30 mid-life (likely $9.42–$14.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.35/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 919 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $376 (overshoots $6.02). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$2.11/sh	+$1,055 cycle +$3,030 [+$474…+$1,643] · 97% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$373	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$2.45/sh	+$1,227 cycle +$3,202 [+$434…+$1,811] · 91% credit	69% surv 56%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$373	7 Aug 2026	11d left	+$0.54/sh	+$272 cycle +$2,247 [-$448…+$636] · 49% credit	69% surv 56%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$378	14 Aug 2026	18d left	+$0.32/sh	+$158 cycle +$2,133 [-$847…+$562] · 41% credit	72% surv 62%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$388	14 Aug 2026	18d left	-$3.12/sh	-$1,558 cycle +$417 [-$2,995…-$1,351] · 7% credit	79% surv 73%
budget: banked $1,975 debit $1,558 (79% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$417 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $5,154/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $390 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$900

Income / mo

$1,800

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Max even-money escape in the band	~$388	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.52/sh	+$762 cycle +$1,662 [+$658…+$1,823] · 99% credit	66% surv 49%
SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	14 Aug 2026	14d left	+$0.61/sh	+$305 cycle +$1,205 [+$131…+$1,328] · 82% credit	68% surv 51%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$393	14 Aug 2026	14d left	-$0.88/sh	-$438 cycle +$462 [-$712…+$467] · 40% credit	70% surv 56%
budget: banked $900 debit $438 (49% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$462 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,015/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (27 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 27 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.735 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$0 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $4,212

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$370	8d	31 Jul 2026	$3.95	5/5	$7,406	$7,406	80%	84%	+$3,318	-$0	0.0%	$5,288 (vs do-nothing +$1,075)
$367.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$4.45	4/5	$6,675	$7,035	78%	82%	+$2,755	-$0	0.0%	$5,272 (vs do-nothing +$1,060)
$362.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.75	4/5	$8,625	$8,985	76%	83%	+$4,818	-$0	0.0%	$5,792 (vs do-nothing +$1,580)
$365	8d	31 Jul 2026	$5.05	4/5	$7,575	$7,935	75%	81%	+$2,902	-$0	0.0%	$5,512 (vs do-nothing +$1,300)
$360	8d	31 Jul 2026	$6.55	3/5	$7,369	$8,089	72%	81%	+$3,869	-$0	0.0%	$5,638 (vs do-nothing +$1,425)
$362.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$7.15	5/5	$7,150	$7,150	70%	77%	+$2,200	-$0	0.0%	$6,888 (vs do-nothing +$2,675)
$357.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$7.35	3/5	$8,269	$8,989	69%	79%	+$4,016	-$0	0.0%	$5,878 (vs do-nothing +$1,665)
$360	15d	7 Aug 2026	$8.00	5/5	$8,000	$8,000	67%	76%	+$2,336	-$0	0.0%	$7,312 (vs do-nothing +$3,100)
$357.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$8.85	4/5	$7,080	$7,440	65%	74%	+$1,916	-$0	0.0%	$7,032 (vs do-nothing +$2,820)
$355	8d	31 Jul 2026	$8.30	3/5	$9,338	$10,058	63%	73%	+$2,537	-$0	0.0%	$6,162 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)
$355	15d	7 Aug 2026	$9.80	4/5	$7,840	$8,200	62%	73%	+$1,978	-$0	0.0%	$7,412 (vs do-nothing +$3,200)
$355	22d	14 Aug 2026	$11.05	5/5	$7,534	$7,534	61%	72%	+$1,848	-$0	0.0%	$8,838 (vs do-nothing +$4,625)
$352.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$9.30	2/5	$6,975	$8,055	59%	71%	+$1,707	-$0	0.0%	$5,712 (vs do-nothing +$1,500)

Show 14 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$352.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$10.45	4/5	$8,360	$8,720	59%	71%	+$1,733	-$0	0.0%	$7,672 (vs do-nothing +$3,460)
$350	8d	31 Jul 2026	$10.35	2/5	$7,762	$8,842	56%	70%	+$1,760	-$0	0.0%	$5,922 (vs do-nothing +$1,710)
$350	15d	7 Aug 2026	$11.70	3/5	$7,020	$7,740	56%	70%	+$1,423	-$0	0.0%	$7,182 (vs do-nothing +$2,970)
$350	22d	14 Aug 2026	$13.20	4/5	$7,200	$7,560	56%	70%	+$1,537	-$0	0.0%	$8,772 (vs do-nothing +$4,560)
$347.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$12.95	3/5	$7,770	$8,490	53%	68%	+$1,491	-$0	0.0%	$7,558 (vs do-nothing +$3,345)
$347.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$11.55	2/5	$8,662	$9,742	53%	68%	+$1,734	-$0	0.0%	$6,162 (vs do-nothing +$1,950)
$345	22d	14 Aug 2026	$15.55	4/5	$8,482	$8,842	50%	67%	+$1,524	-$0	0.0%	$9,712 (vs do-nothing +$5,500)
$345	15d	7 Aug 2026	$14.25	3/5	$8,550	$9,270	49%	67%	+$1,534	-$0	0.0%	$7,948 (vs do-nothing +$3,735)
$345	8d	31 Jul 2026	$12.75	2/5	$9,562	$10,642	49%	67%	+$1,710	-$0	0.0%	$6,402 (vs do-nothing +$2,190)
$342.50	15d	7 Aug 2026	$15.45	3/5	$9,270	$9,990	46%	66%	+$1,459	-$0	0.0%	$8,308 (vs do-nothing +$4,095)
$342.50	8d	31 Jul 2026	$14.00	2/5	$10,500	$11,580	45%	65%	+$1,661	-$0	0.0%	$6,652 (vs do-nothing +$2,440)
$340	22d	14 Aug 2026	$17.90	3/5	$7,323	$8,043	44%	65%	+$993	-$0	0.0%	$9,042 (vs do-nothing +$4,830)
$340	15d	7 Aug 2026	$16.35	2/5	$6,540	$7,620	43%	64%	+$766	-$0	0.0%	$7,122 (vs do-nothing +$2,910)
$340	8d	31 Jul 2026	$15.45	2/5	$11,588	$12,668	42%	64%	+$1,699	-$0	0.0%	$6,942 (vs do-nothing +$2,730)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.2 | 2026-07-23 01:53