GOOG-LC310 @ $320.29 UNDERWATER $72.21 (18.4% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TODAY. The recommended CC (8d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.
5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $339.82 (banked floor $323.87) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $41,250 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,510/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,500 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,755/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$9,510/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $41,250
ML VELOCITY
4.3 mo to earn back $41,250
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $339.82 (probe: $340C 15d) still earns $3,000/mo (32% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$5,535
Hole (after banked)
$965
was $6,500 · 85% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$339.82 → $323.87
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 32 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B -10 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.03 (+29%) · daily UBB $375.88 · 1-wk expected move ±$16 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $339.82 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $340 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $340)
88%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.30/sh now → $6.58 mid-life (likely $5.81–$9.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 548 simulated challenges: the $340 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $343 (overshoots $3.38). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$340 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$1.58/sh | +$792 cycle +$1,642 [+$405…+$1,295] · 91% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$345 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.20/sh | +$599 cycle +$1,449 [+$39…+$1,145] · 77% credit | 71% surv 59% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$342 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | +$0.45/sh | +$225 cycle +$1,075 [-$253…+$686] · 58% credit | 69% surv 56% |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$350 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$0.74/sh | -$372 cycle +$478 [-$1,102…+$99] · 26% credit | 75% surv 67% |
| budget: banked $850 debit $372 (44% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$478 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,863/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $352.50 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $352.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.71/sh now → $8.28 mid-life (likely $6.65–$10.85) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.28/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 408 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 10 of 15, at $356 (overshoots $3.73). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$352 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.69/sh | +$344 cycle +$984 [+$162…+$1,054] · 86% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$352 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.55/sh | +$274 cycle +$914 [+$86…+$977] · 81% credit | 68% surv 51% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $405 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $405)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $11.08/sh now → $7.84 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$7.83/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$405 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.51/sh | -$253 cycle -$248 | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$405 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$1.11/sh | +$554 cycle +$559 | 67% surv 50% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (19 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.672 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,562 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $67
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $335 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.60 | 5/5 | $4,875 | $4,875 | 81% | 85% | +$2,617 | -$1,110 | 2.7% | $-1,048 (vs do-nothing $-1,115) |
| $332.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.10 | 5/5 | $5,812 | $5,812 | 77% | 82% | +$2,744 | -$2,110 | 5.1% | $-2,048 (vs do-nothing $-2,115) |
| $330 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.90 | 4/5 | $5,850 | $5,852 | 72% | 80% | +$2,574 | -$2,368 | 5.7% | $-2,305 (vs do-nothing $-2,372) |
| $332.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.80 | 5/5 | $4,800 | $4,800 | 71% | 78% | +$1,408 | -$1,260 | 3.1% | $-1,198 (vs do-nothing $-1,265) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.65 | 3/5 | $5,231 | $5,235 | 67% | 77% | +$2,008 | -$2,301 | 5.6% | $-2,237 (vs do-nothing $-2,304) |
| $330 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.55 | 5/5 | $5,550 | $5,550 | 67% | 76% | +$1,478 | -$2,135 | 5.2% | $-2,073 (vs do-nothing $-2,140) |
| $330 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.00 | 5/5 | $4,773 | $4,773 | 66% | 75% | +$1,259 | -$1,410 | 3.4% | $-1,348 (vs do-nothing $-1,415) |
| $327.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.50 | 4/5 | $5,200 | $5,202 | 63% | 74% | +$1,313 | -$2,328 | 5.6% | $-2,265 (vs do-nothing $-2,332) |
| $325 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.65 | 3/5 | $6,356 | $6,360 | 62% | 74% | +$2,199 | -$2,751 | 6.7% | $-2,687 (vs do-nothing $-2,754) |
| $325 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.60 | 4/5 | $6,080 | $6,082 | 59% | 72% | +$1,471 | -$2,888 | 7.0% | $-2,825 (vs do-nothing $-2,892) |
| $325 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $9.00 | 4/5 | $4,909 | $4,911 | 59% | 71% | +$1,131 | -$2,328 | 5.6% | $-2,265 (vs do-nothing $-2,332) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 2/5 | $4,988 | $4,994 | 56% | 72% | +$1,473 | -$2,134 | 5.2% | $-2,069 (vs do-nothing $-2,136) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.50 | 3/5 | $5,100 | $5,104 | 55% | 70% | +$1,027 | -$2,646 | 6.4% | $-2,582 (vs do-nothing $-2,649) |
Show 6 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $320 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $11.35 | 4/5 | $6,191 | $6,193 | 51% | 68% | +$1,211 | -$3,388 | 8.2% | $-3,325 (vs do-nothing $-3,392) |
| $320 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $9.80 | 3/5 | $5,880 | $5,884 | 51% | 68% | +$1,114 | -$3,006 | 7.3% | $-2,942 (vs do-nothing $-3,009) |
| $320 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.15 | 2/5 | $6,112 | $6,118 | 50% | 70% | +$1,727 | -$2,334 | 5.7% | $-2,269 (vs do-nothing $-2,336) |
| $315 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $14.20 | 3/5 | $5,809 | $5,813 | 44% | 65% | +$985 | -$3,186 | 7.7% | $-3,122 (vs do-nothing $-3,189) |
| $315 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $12.50 | 2/5 | $5,000 | $5,006 | 42% | 65% | +$737 | -$2,464 | 6.0% | $-2,399 (vs do-nothing $-2,466) |
| $315 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.90 | 2/5 | $8,175 | $8,181 | 39% | 65% | +$1,657 | -$2,784 | 6.7% | $-2,719 (vs do-nothing $-2,786) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.