GOOG-LC310 @ $318.10 UNDERWATER $74.40 (19.0% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), TODAY. The recommended CC (15d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.
5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $340.37 (banked floor $324.46) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $41,250 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $8,400/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,425 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,200/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$8,400/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $41,250
ML VELOCITY
4.9 mo to earn back $41,250
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $340.37 (probe: $340C 15d) still earns $2,360/mo (28% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$5,535
Hole (after banked)
$1,890
was $7,425 · 75% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$340.37 → $324.46
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 30 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 31 · %B -12 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.02 (+30%) · daily UBB $376.26 · 1-wk expected move ±$15 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $340.37 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 5 × $345 14 Aug 2026 (22d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $345)
84%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 11 of 22); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $12.55/sh now → $8.88 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.59/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.29/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $342.50 7 Aug 2026 (15d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $342.50)
85%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 15); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $10.57/sh now → $7.48 mid-life (likely $7.00–$10.58) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.97/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 685 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 15, at $346 (overshoots $3.80). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$342 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$1.30/sh | +$651 cycle +$1,636 [+$396…+$1,072] · 99% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$344 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.33/sh | +$163 cycle +$1,148 [-$173…+$486] · 59% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$344 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$0.33/sh | +$163 cycle +$1,148 [-$173…+$486] · 59% credit | 69% surv 55% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$349 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | -$1.80/sh | -$901 cycle +$84 [-$1,428…-$698] · 7% credit | 73% surv 64% |
| budget: banked $985 debit $901 (91% used ≈ 2.0 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$84 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $6,080/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $410 31 Jul 2026 (8d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $410)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.90/sh now → $7.00 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.02/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$410 | 7 Aug 2026 | 11d left | -$0.06/sh | -$31 cycle -$21 | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$412 | 14 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$257 cycle +$267 | 68% surv 55% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (16 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.665 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,406 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $61
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $332.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.32 | 5/5 | $4,350 | $4,350 | 79% | 83% | +$1,531 | -$2,777 | 6.7% | $-2,796 (vs do-nothing $-2,857) |
| $330 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.86 | 4/5 | $4,290 | $4,322 | 75% | 80% | +$1,363 | -$3,005 | 7.3% | $-3,008 (vs do-nothing $-3,069) |
| $327.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 4/5 | $5,100 | $5,132 | 71% | 77% | +$1,330 | -$3,789 | 9.2% | $-3,792 (vs do-nothing $-3,853) |
| $330 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $4.75 | 5/5 | $4,750 | $4,750 | 71% | 77% | +$1,471 | -$2,812 | 6.8% | $-2,831 (vs do-nothing $-2,892) |
| $327.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.35 | 4/5 | $4,280 | $4,312 | 67% | 75% | +$1,106 | -$3,009 | 7.3% | $-3,012 (vs do-nothing $-3,073) |
| $325 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.20 | 3/5 | $4,725 | $4,789 | 66% | 74% | +$1,114 | -$3,352 | 8.1% | $-3,339 (vs do-nothing $-3,400) |
| $325 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.30 | 4/5 | $5,040 | $5,072 | 63% | 73% | +$1,223 | -$3,629 | 8.8% | $-3,632 (vs do-nothing $-3,693) |
| $325 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.85 | 4/5 | $4,282 | $4,314 | 62% | 72% | +$977 | -$3,009 | 7.3% | $-3,012 (vs do-nothing $-3,073) |
| $322.50 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $5,738 | $5,802 | 61% | 72% | +$1,174 | -$3,832 | 9.3% | $-3,819 (vs do-nothing $-3,880) |
| $322.50 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.25 | 3/5 | $4,350 | $4,414 | 59% | 71% | +$931 | -$3,187 | 7.7% | $-3,174 (vs do-nothing $-3,235) |
| $320 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/5 | $4,725 | $4,821 | 56% | 70% | +$1,180 | -$2,815 | 6.8% | $-2,786 (vs do-nothing $-2,847) |
| $320 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.40 | 3/5 | $5,040 | $5,104 | 55% | 69% | +$966 | -$3,592 | 8.7% | $-3,579 (vs do-nothing $-3,640) |
| $320 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.05 | 4/5 | $5,482 | $5,514 | 55% | 69% | +$1,059 | -$4,129 | 10.0% | $-4,132 (vs do-nothing $-4,193) |
Show 3 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $315 | 22d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.65 | 3/5 | $5,175 | $5,239 | 47% | 66% | +$823 | -$3,817 | 9.3% | $-3,804 (vs do-nothing $-3,865) |
| $315 | 15d | 7 Aug 2026 | $10.95 | 2/5 | $4,380 | $4,476 | 46% | 65% | +$663 | -$2,885 | 7.0% | $-2,856 (vs do-nothing $-2,917) |
| $315 | 8d | 31 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 2/5 | $6,712 | $6,808 | 44% | 65% | +$1,262 | -$3,285 | 8.0% | $-3,256 (vs do-nothing $-3,317) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.