GOOG-LC310 @ $319.89 UNDERWATER $72.61 (18.5% below BE SS)
5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $392.50 | CC-SS: $341.05 (banked floor $325.18) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Joint:1782
LC: $310 exp 2027-12-17 (entry $82.507/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $41,250 | (ND $82.50 + SW $0) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $9,054/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $0/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,075 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$4,527/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$9,054/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $41,250
ML VELOCITY
4.6 mo to earn back $41,250
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $341.05 (probe: $340C 14d) still earns $2,304/mo (25% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$5,535
Hole (after banked)
$1,540
was $7,075 · 78% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$341.05 → $325.18
? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 32 (live) · RSI 46 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 32 · %B -2 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.04 (+29%) · daily UBB $378.07 · 1-wk expected move ±$14 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $341.05 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $342.50 7 Aug 2026 (14d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $342.50)
86%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $9.92/sh now → $7.01 mid-life (likely $6.17–$9.59) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.77/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 662 simulated challenges: the $342 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $346 (overshoots $3.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$342 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$1.21/sh | +$605 cycle +$1,490 [+$330…+$1,002] · 98% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$343 | 14 Aug 2026 | 14d left | +$1.15/sh | +$575 cycle +$1,460 [+$298…+$963] · 97% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$348 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | +$0.50/sh | +$250 cycle +$1,135 [-$182…+$678] · 61% credit | 72% surv 60% |
| SS $392 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$353 | 21 Aug 2026 | 21d left | -$1.38/sh | -$691 cycle +$194 [-$1,262…-$318] · 15% credit | 76% surv 68% |
| budget: banked $885 debit $691 (78% used ≈ 1.6 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$194 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,021/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $357.50 21 Aug 2026 (28d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $357.50)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 14 of 28); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.04/sh now → $9.93 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.18/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $405 14 Aug 2026 (21d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $405)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 10 of 21); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $14.32/sh now → $10.13 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$10.12/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$405 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | -$2.31/sh | -$1,157 cycle -$1,152 | 67% surv 51% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$400 | 21 Aug 2026 | 18d left | +$0.51/sh | +$253 cycle +$258 | 63% surv 40% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (18 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.670 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,090 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $55
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $330 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $2.71 | 4/5 | $4,646 | $4,663 | 75% | 81% | +$1,881 | -$3,338 | 8.1% | $-3,315 (vs do-nothing $-3,370) |
| $327.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 4/5 | $5,657 | $5,674 | 70% | 77% | +$1,922 | -$4,102 | 9.9% | $-4,079 (vs do-nothing $-4,134) |
| $327.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $5.15 | 5/5 | $5,518 | $5,518 | 66% | 75% | +$1,427 | -$4,202 | 10.2% | $-4,187 (vs do-nothing $-4,242) |
| $325 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $4.05 | 3/5 | $5,207 | $5,241 | 64% | 74% | +$1,465 | -$3,601 | 8.7% | $-3,570 (vs do-nothing $-3,625) |
| $325 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $6.10 | 4/5 | $5,229 | $5,246 | 61% | 72% | +$1,221 | -$3,982 | 9.7% | $-3,959 (vs do-nothing $-4,014) |
| $325 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $7.65 | 5/5 | $5,464 | $5,464 | 60% | 71% | +$1,109 | -$4,202 | 10.2% | $-4,187 (vs do-nothing $-4,242) |
| $325 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $9.35 | 5/5 | $5,009 | $5,009 | 59% | 72% | +$1,225 | -$3,352 | 8.1% | $-3,337 (vs do-nothing $-3,392) |
| $322.50 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $5.10 | 3/5 | $6,557 | $6,591 | 58% | 71% | +$1,633 | -$4,036 | 9.8% | $-4,005 (vs do-nothing $-4,060) |
| $322.50 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $7.30 | 3/5 | $4,693 | $4,727 | 56% | 70% | +$1,045 | -$3,376 | 8.2% | $-3,345 (vs do-nothing $-3,400) |
| $322.50 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $10.50 | 5/5 | $5,625 | $5,625 | 55% | 70% | +$1,273 | -$4,027 | 9.8% | $-4,012 (vs do-nothing $-4,067) |
| $320 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $11.80 | 4/5 | $5,057 | $5,074 | 52% | 68% | +$1,073 | -$3,702 | 9.0% | $-3,679 (vs do-nothing $-3,734) |
| $320 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $10.25 | 4/5 | $5,857 | $5,874 | 52% | 68% | +$1,101 | -$4,322 | 10.5% | $-4,299 (vs do-nothing $-4,354) |
| $320 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $8.45 | 3/5 | $5,432 | $5,466 | 51% | 68% | +$1,046 | -$3,781 | 9.2% | $-3,750 (vs do-nothing $-3,805) |
Show 5 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $320 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 2/5 | $5,400 | $5,451 | 51% | 68% | +$1,153 | -$2,951 | 7.2% | $-2,912 (vs do-nothing $-2,967) |
| $315 | 28d | 21 Aug 2026 | $14.50 | 3/5 | $4,661 | $4,695 | 45% | 65% | +$810 | -$3,466 | 8.4% | $-3,435 (vs do-nothing $-3,490) |
| $315 | 21d | 14 Aug 2026 | $12.90 | 3/5 | $5,529 | $5,563 | 44% | 65% | +$795 | -$3,946 | 9.6% | $-3,915 (vs do-nothing $-3,970) |
| $315 | 14d | 7 Aug 2026 | $11.25 | 2/5 | $4,821 | $4,873 | 42% | 64% | +$719 | -$2,961 | 7.2% | $-2,922 (vs do-nothing $-2,977) |
| $315 | 7d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 2/5 | $7,886 | $7,937 | 38% | 63% | +$1,172 | -$3,371 | 8.2% | $-3,332 (vs do-nothing $-3,387) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.