5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $384.15 (banked floor $326.41) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $5,914/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,345/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-17,150 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $357.5C 28 Aug 2026 | U13190865 | $0.92 | $462 | 2026-08-25 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 4 Sep 2026 · 7d | 4 × $350 | 74% | $3,771 | $1,280 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | FIGHT edge | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $360 | 4 Sep | 7d | 5.2% | 91%hist 96% | 17%hist 13% | · | $300 | $1,286 | -$2,486 | $11,773 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 5.2% OTM over spot $342.33 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $0.62 mid) = $300 credit for the 7d cycle → $1,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $360.62) 92% EV / mo +$717 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 12% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,659 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $373 @ 78% POP 72% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.54/sh now → $3.92 mid-life (likely $3.38–$5.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.32/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 347 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $24 below CC-SS $384.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.15/sh (~25% of the $0.60 collected) or spot ≥ $360.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $364.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,434 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$11,773 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-12,489 (+$4,661 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-711 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,778, the opportunity cost of earning $1,286/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.08 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$18,240, position total $-13,873 (+$3,277 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 4 × $355 | 4 Sep | 7d | 3.7% | 85%hist 85% | 31%hist 31% | · | $476 | $2,040 | -$1,731 | $11,183 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $355 3.7% OTM over spot $342.33 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $1.22 mid) = $476 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,040/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $356.22) 87% EV / mo +$958 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 22% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,069 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $373 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.46/sh now → $3.86 mid-life (likely $3.54–$5.94) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 650 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $358 (overshoots $2.71). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $29 below CC-SS $384.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.19 collected) or spot ≥ $356.22 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $364.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,434 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $355): -$11,183 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-11,898 (+$5,252 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-711 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-11,187, the opportunity cost of earning $2,040/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.08 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$16,356, position total $-11,988 (+$5,162 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $350 | 4 Sep | 7d | 2.2% | 74%hist 84% | 52%hist 43% | · | $880 | $3,771 | — | $12,779 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $350 2.2% OTM over spot $342.33 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $2.27 mid) = $880 credit for the 7d cycle → $3,771/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $350) 74% Breach risk 26% POP (stays ≤ $352.27) 80% EV / mo +$1,394 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 39% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$644 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $378 @ 89% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.39/sh now → $3.81 mid-life (likely $4.14–$6.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,174 simulated challenges: the $350 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $353 (overshoots $2.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $350 is $34 below CC-SS $384.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.55/sh (~25% of the $2.20 collected) or spot ≥ $352.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $350)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $364.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,434 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $350): -$12,779 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-13,494 (+$3,656 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-711 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-12,783, the opportunity cost of earning $3,771/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.08 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$17,952, position total $-13,584 (+$3,566 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 4 × $345 | 4 Sep | 7d | 0.8% | 59%hist 69% | 83%hist 79% | · | $1,560 | $6,686 | +$2,914 | $14,099 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $345 0.8% OTM over spot $342.33 4 Sep 2026 (7d, $4.00 mid) = $1,560 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,686/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $345) 59% Breach risk 41% POP (stays ≤ $349.00) 71% EV / mo +$1,583 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 65% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$58 Free roll-up +$3/wk Safest escape (by 25 Sep 2026) $378 @ 91% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.31/sh now → $3.75 mid-life (likely $4.98–$7.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.90/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$0.15/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,959 simulated challenges: the $345 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $348 (overshoots $2.99). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $345 is $39 below CC-SS $384.15: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.97/sh (~25% of the $3.90 collected) or spot ≥ $349.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $345)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $364.56 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.79 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $384.15, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-17,150 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$16,434 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $345): -$14,099 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$1 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-14,814 (+$2,336 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-711 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-14,103, the opportunity cost of earning $6,686/mo FIGHT income now) BB-reversion stress (→ $397.08 Upper BB (CC ceiling), the probable scenario per weekly technicals): CC give-up -$19,272, position total $-14,904 (+$2,246 vs today) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (4 expiries scanned, 12 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.786 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$16,434 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-711
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $2.20 | 4/5 | $3,771 | $3,774 | 74% | 80% | +$1,394 | -$12,779 | 50.1% | $-13,494 (vs do-nothing $-12,783) |
| $350 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $3.80 | 4/5 | $3,257 | $3,259 | 68% | 76% | +$941 | -$12,139 | 47.6% | $-12,854 (vs do-nothing $-12,143) |
| $350 | 21d | 18 Sep 2026 | $5.80 | 4/5 | $3,314 | $3,316 | 65% | 74% | +$981 | -$11,339 | 44.5% | $-12,054 (vs do-nothing $-11,343) |
| $350 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $6.85 | 5/5 | $3,670 | $3,670 | 63% | 73% | +$831 | -$13,648 | 53.5% | $-14,364 (vs do-nothing $-13,653) |
| $345 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $3.90 | 2/5 | $3,343 | $3,349 | 59% | 71% | +$792 | -$7,049 | 27.6% | $-7,762 (vs do-nothing $-7,051) |
| $345 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $5.70 | 3/5 | $3,664 | $3,669 | 57% | 70% | +$664 | -$10,034 | 39.3% | $-10,748 (vs do-nothing $-10,037) |
| $345 | 21d | 18 Sep 2026 | $7.70 | 3/5 | $3,300 | $3,304 | 56% | 70% | +$739 | -$9,434 | 37.0% | $-10,148 (vs do-nothing $-9,437) |
| $345 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $9.15 | 4/5 | $3,921 | $3,924 | 56% | 70% | +$885 | -$11,999 | 47.1% | $-12,714 (vs do-nothing $-12,003) |
| $340 | 28d | 25 Sep 2026 | $11.50 | 3/5 | $3,696 | $3,701 | 48% | 66% | +$640 | -$9,794 | 38.4% | $-10,508 (vs do-nothing $-9,797) |
| $340 | 21d | 18 Sep 2026 | $10.10 | 3/5 | $4,329 | $4,333 | 47% | 66% | +$737 | -$10,214 | 40.1% | $-10,928 (vs do-nothing $-10,217) |
| $340 | 14d | 11 Sep 2026 | $7.85 | 2/5 | $3,364 | $3,371 | 46% | 64% | +$321 | -$7,259 | 28.5% | $-7,972 (vs do-nothing $-7,261) |
| $340 | 7d | 4 Sep 2026 | $6.40 | 2/5 | $5,486 | $5,492 | 43% | 64% | +$844 | -$7,549 | 29.6% | $-8,262 (vs do-nothing $-7,551) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Survival, POP and touch use vol x 1.00 (raw implied: the VRP haircut is applied to the premium edge but NOT to risk, because understating the edge costs opportunity while understating breach odds costs capital; the risk-side haircut arms only from the graded ledger). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.