5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.78 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $10,329/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,020/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,337 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $367.50 | 76% | $5,419 | $1,519 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $377.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.1% | 90% | 21% | $565 | $2,119 | -$3,300 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $377.50 6.1% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.18 mid) = $565 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,119/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $377.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $378.68) 91% EV / mo +$1,204 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.6] median · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~1.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-378 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,256 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $387 @ 76% POP 68% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.98/sh now → $5.64 mid-life (likely $4.62–$7.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 438 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 8, at $381 (overshoots $3.27). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $377.50 is at/above CC-SS $373.78: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.13 collected) or spot ≥ $378.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $378)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,337 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $377.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$7,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $380 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-380, the opportunity cost of earning $2,119/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 4.7% | 84% | 33% | $925 | $3,469 | -$1,950 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $372.50 4.7% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.91 mid) = $925 credit for the 8d cycle → $3,469/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 84% Breach risk 16% POP (stays ≤ $374.40) 86% EV / mo +$1,721 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.7] median · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 75% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $454 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 23% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,858 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $387 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.87/sh now → $5.57 mid-life (likely $5.33–$8.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.85/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 698 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $376 (overshoots $3.57). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $373.78: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.46/sh (~25% of the $1.85 collected) or spot ≥ $374.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,337 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$7,338 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $380 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-380, the opportunity cost of earning $3,469/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 3.3% | 76% | 38% | $1,445 | $5,419 | — | $1,694 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $367.50 3.3% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.95 mid) = $1,445 credit for the 8d cycle → $5,419/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 76% Breach risk 24% POP (stays ≤ $370.44) 81% EV / mo +$2,213 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,176 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 38% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,301 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $384 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.77/sh now → $5.49 mid-life (likely $5.91–$8.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.89/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.60/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,136 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $371 (overshoots $3.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $367.50 is $6 below CC-SS $373.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.72/sh (~25% of the $2.89 collected) or spot ≥ $370.44 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,337 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $367.50): -$1,694 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,694 (+$5,644 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $380 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,074, the opportunity cost of earning $5,419/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $357.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 0.5% | 55% | 92% | $3,250 | $12,188 | +$6,769 | $4,889 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $357.50 0.5% OTM over spot $355.77 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $6.58 mid) = $3,250 credit for the 8d cycle → $12,188/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $357.50) 55% Breach risk 45% POP (stays ≤ $364.07) 70% EV / mo +$3,045 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median, 0.3 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~6.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,641 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$579 Free roll-up +$7/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $387 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.56/sh now → $5.34 mid-life (likely $7.33–$10.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.16/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,217 simulated challenges: the $358 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 8, at $361 (overshoots $3.97). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $357.50 is $16 below CC-SS $373.78: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $364.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $358)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.53 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.78, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,337 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,338 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $357.50): -$4,889 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,889 (+$2,449 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $380 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,269, the opportunity cost of earning $12,188/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.815 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,338 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $380
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $367.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.89 | 5/5 | $5,419 | $3,398 | 76% | 81% | +$2,213 | -$1,694 | 6.6% | $-1,694 (vs do-nothing $-2,074) |
| $370 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 5/5 | $5,200 | $3,180 | 72% | 79% | +$1,914 | -$0 | 0.0% | $711 (vs do-nothing +$331) |
| $365 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $5,250 | $3,382 | 72% | 78% | +$1,842 | -$2,111 | 8.3% | $-2,035 (vs do-nothing $-2,415) |
| $367.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.80 | 5/5 | $5,800 | $3,780 | 69% | 77% | +$1,852 | -$239 | 0.9% | $-239 (vs do-nothing $-619) |
| $362.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.35 | 4/5 | $6,525 | $4,657 | 66% | 75% | +$2,061 | -$2,771 | 10.9% | $-2,695 (vs do-nothing $-3,075) |
| $365 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 4/5 | $5,280 | $3,412 | 66% | 75% | +$1,512 | -$871 | 3.4% | $-795 (vs do-nothing $-1,175) |
| $362.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 4/5 | $5,920 | $4,052 | 62% | 73% | +$1,455 | -$1,551 | 6.1% | $-1,475 (vs do-nothing $-1,855) |
| $360 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $6,075 | $4,359 | 61% | 72% | +$1,755 | -$2,513 | 9.9% | $-2,361 (vs do-nothing $-2,741) |
| $357.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $7,312 | $5,596 | 55% | 70% | +$1,827 | -$2,933 | 11.5% | $-2,781 (vs do-nothing $-3,161) |
| $357.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 3/5 | $5,910 | $4,194 | 54% | 69% | +$1,308 | -$1,928 | 7.6% | $-1,776 (vs do-nothing $-2,156) |
| $355 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.10 | 3/5 | $6,660 | $4,944 | 50% | 68% | +$1,324 | -$2,303 | 9.0% | $-2,151 (vs do-nothing $-2,531) |
| $355 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.65 | 2/5 | $5,738 | $4,173 | 49% | 67% | +$1,168 | -$2,225 | 8.7% | $-1,997 (vs do-nothing $-2,377) |
| $352.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.05 | 3/5 | $7,230 | $5,514 | 46% | 65% | +$1,087 | -$2,768 | 10.9% | $-2,616 (vs do-nothing $-2,996) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.00 | 2/5 | $6,750 | $5,186 | 43% | 64% | +$1,131 | -$2,455 | 9.6% | $-2,227 (vs do-nothing $-2,607) |
| $350 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.40 | 2/5 | $5,360 | $3,796 | 42% | 64% | +$679 | -$2,075 | 8.1% | $-1,847 (vs do-nothing $-2,227) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.