5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $372.00 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,000/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,077/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,325 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 8d | 5 × $360 | 62% | $8,062 | $1,218 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $375 | 17 Jul | 8d | 6.1% | 82% | 37% | $565 | $2,119 | -$5,944 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $375 6.1% OTM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $1.25 mid) = $565 credit for the 8d cycle → $2,119/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 82% Breach risk 18% POP (stays ≤ $376.25) 83% EV / mo $-978 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 83% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-277 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 28% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,502 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $389 @ 76% POP 70% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.67/sh now → $6.13 mid-life (likely $6.16–$9.81) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.13/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 835 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 8, at $380 (overshoots $5.18). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $372: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.28/sh (~25% of the $1.13 collected) or spot ≥ $376.25 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,325 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$8,325 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-690, the opportunity cost of earning $2,119/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | 4.0% | 73% | 55% | $1,170 | $4,387 | -$3,675 | $1,080 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $367.50 4.0% OTM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $2.48 mid) = $1,170 credit for the 8d cycle → $4,387/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $369.99) 76% EV / mo $-1,385 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-1.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 85% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $755 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,835 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $389 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.50/sh now → $6.01 mid-life (likely $6.83–$10.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.67/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,309 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 8, at $373 (overshoots $5.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $367.50 is $4 below CC-SS $372: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.34 collected) or spot ≥ $369.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,325 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $367.50): -$1,080 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,080 (+$7,245 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,770, the opportunity cost of earning $4,387/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 8d | 1.8% | 62% | 62% | $2,150 | $8,062 | — | $3,850 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 1.8% OTM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $4.62 mid) = $2,150 credit for the 8d cycle → $8,062/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 62% Breach risk 38% POP (stays ≤ $364.62) 69% EV / mo $-1,935 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~6.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,942 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 62% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$794 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.33/sh now → $5.89 mid-life (likely $7.69–$10.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.59/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,860 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 8, at $365 (overshoots $5.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $12 below CC-SS $372: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.07/sh (~25% of the $4.30 collected) or spot ≥ $364.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,325 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$3,850 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,850 (+$4,475 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,540, the opportunity cost of earning $8,062/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 8d | -0.3% | 50% | 99+% | $3,850 | $14,438 | +$6,375 | $5,900 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.3% ITM over spot $353.50 17 Jul 2026 (8d, $8.15 mid) = $3,850 credit for the 8d cycle → $14,438/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $360.65) 63% EV / mo $-1,684 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$967 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $390 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 4 of 8); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.15/sh now → $5.77 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.93/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $20 below CC-SS $372: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.93/sh (~25% of the $7.70 collected) or spot ≥ $360.65 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.00, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,325 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,325 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$5,900 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,900 (+$2,425 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,590, the opportunity cost of earning $14,438/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (2 expiries scanned, 13 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$8,325 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $690
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $367.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.10 | 5/5 | $7,100 | $5,023 | 68% | 76% | +$1,528 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,300 (vs do-nothing +$610) |
| $365 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 5/5 | $7,900 | $5,823 | 65% | 74% | +$1,521 | -$0 | 0.0% | $450 (vs do-nothing $-240) |
| $362.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.90 | 4/5 | $7,120 | $5,319 | 62% | 73% | +$1,306 | -$240 | 0.9% | $-102 (vs do-nothing $-792) |
| $360 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 5/5 | $8,062 | $5,985 | 62% | 69% | $-1,935 | -$3,850 | 15.1% | $-3,850 (vs do-nothing $-4,540) |
| $357.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.20 | 4/5 | $7,800 | $5,999 | 58% | 67% | $-1,652 | -$3,720 | 14.6% | $-3,582 (vs do-nothing $-4,272) |
| $357.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.05 | 3/5 | $6,630 | $5,105 | 57% | 70% | +$1,050 | -$1,035 | 4.1% | $-759 (vs do-nothing $-1,449) |
| $355 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 3/5 | $7,200 | $5,675 | 54% | 65% | $-1,113 | -$3,180 | 12.5% | $-2,904 (vs do-nothing $-3,594) |
| $355 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.30 | 3/5 | $7,380 | $5,855 | 54% | 69% | +$1,112 | -$1,410 | 5.5% | $-1,134 (vs do-nothing $-1,824) |
| $352.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.00 | 3/5 | $8,400 | $6,875 | 51% | 67% | +$1,390 | -$1,650 | 6.5% | $-1,374 (vs do-nothing $-2,064) |
| $352.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.70 | 3/5 | $8,662 | $7,137 | 50% | 63% | $-1,010 | -$3,540 | 13.9% | $-3,264 (vs do-nothing $-3,954) |
| $350 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.00 | 3/5 | $9,000 | $7,475 | 48% | 66% | +$1,194 | -$2,100 | 8.2% | $-1,824 (vs do-nothing $-2,514) |
| $347.50 | 15d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 2/5 | $6,560 | $5,311 | 44% | 65% | +$858 | -$1,620 | 6.4% | $-1,206 (vs do-nothing $-1,896) |
| $347.50 | 8d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.80 | 2/5 | $8,100 | $6,851 | 41% | 60% | $-439 | -$2,740 | 10.7% | $-2,326 (vs do-nothing $-3,016) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.