5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $372.57 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,929/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,070/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,125 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $360 | 69% | $7,714 | $2,499 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.7% | 90% | 21% | $545 | $2,336 | -$5,379 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $372.50 5.7% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.15 mid) = $545 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,336/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 90% Breach risk 10% POP (stays ≤ $373.64) 91% EV / mo +$1,359 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.4] median · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 83% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-123 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 14% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,096 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $390 @ 81% POP 76% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.47/sh now → $5.28 mid-life (likely $4.35–$7.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 435 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $376 (overshoots $3.63). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $372.57: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.09 collected) or spot ≥ $373.64 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$8,125 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-690, the opportunity cost of earning $2,336/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 79% | 42% | $1,135 | $4,864 | -$2,850 | $2,648 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 3.6% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.33 mid) = $1,135 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,864/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $367.33) 83% EV / mo +$2,158 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~4.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $838 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 32% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,453 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 86% POP 84% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.32/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $5.33–$8.28) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.27/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.91/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 953 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $8 below CC-SS $372.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.57/sh (~25% of the $2.27 collected) or spot ≥ $367.33 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$2,648 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,648 (+$5,477 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,338, the opportunity cost of earning $4,864/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.2% | 69% | 48% | $1,800 | $7,714 | — | $4,483 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 2.2% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.75 mid) = $1,800 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,714/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $363.75) 77% EV / mo +$2,716 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-1.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~5.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,593 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$753 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $403 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.22/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $6.00–$8.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,430 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $13 below CC-SS $372.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.90/sh (~25% of the $3.60 collected) or spot ≥ $363.75 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$4,483 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,483 (+$3,642 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,173, the opportunity cost of earning $7,714/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.0% | 51% | 99% | $3,350 | $14,357 | +$6,643 | $6,683 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.0% OTM over spot $352.38 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.85 mid) = $3,350 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,357/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $359.35) 68% EV / mo +$3,225 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~10.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,936 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 79% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$850 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.07/sh now → $5.00 mid-life (likely $7.02–$10.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.70/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,374 simulated challenges: the $352 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $357 (overshoots $4.33). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $20 below CC-SS $372.57: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.68/sh (~25% of the $6.70 collected) or spot ≥ $359.35 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.59 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.57, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,125 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,125 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$6,683 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,683 (+$1,442 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $690 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,373, the opportunity cost of earning $14,357/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.805 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,125 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $690
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 5/5 | $7,286 | $5,216 | 70% | 77% | +$2,126 | -$0 | 0.0% | $867 (vs do-nothing +$177) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.60 | 5/5 | $7,714 | $5,644 | 69% | 77% | +$2,716 | -$4,483 | 17.6% | $-4,483 (vs do-nothing $-5,173) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.75 | 5/5 | $8,304 | $6,233 | 67% | 76% | +$2,372 | -$0 | 0.0% | $92 (vs do-nothing $-598) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 4/5 | $7,371 | $5,597 | 64% | 74% | +$1,937 | -$587 | 2.3% | $-449 (vs do-nothing $-1,139) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 4/5 | $7,543 | $5,768 | 64% | 74% | +$2,242 | -$4,267 | 16.7% | $-4,129 (vs do-nothing $-4,819) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 5/5 | $8,000 | $5,930 | 60% | 72% | +$1,776 | -$683 | 2.7% | $-683 (vs do-nothing $-1,373) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.35 | 4/5 | $8,871 | $7,097 | 58% | 71% | +$1,834 | -$1,887 | 7.4% | $-1,749 (vs do-nothing $-2,439) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 3/5 | $7,071 | $5,593 | 58% | 71% | +$1,888 | -$3,620 | 14.2% | $-3,344 (vs do-nothing $-4,034) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.70 | 3/5 | $7,521 | $6,043 | 55% | 70% | +$1,552 | -$1,760 | 6.9% | $-1,484 (vs do-nothing $-2,174) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.35 | 4/5 | $7,629 | $5,854 | 55% | 69% | +$1,455 | -$1,687 | 6.6% | $-1,549 (vs do-nothing $-2,239) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.00 | 3/5 | $8,357 | $6,878 | 52% | 68% | +$1,636 | -$2,120 | 8.3% | $-1,844 (vs do-nothing $-2,534) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.70 | 3/5 | $8,614 | $7,136 | 51% | 68% | +$1,935 | -$4,010 | 15.7% | $-3,734 (vs do-nothing $-4,424) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.00 | 4/5 | $9,143 | $7,368 | 49% | 67% | +$1,584 | -$2,627 | 10.3% | $-2,489 (vs do-nothing $-3,179) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.25 | 3/5 | $9,161 | $7,682 | 49% | 67% | +$1,624 | -$2,495 | 9.8% | $-2,219 (vs do-nothing $-2,909) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.50 | 3/5 | $9,964 | $8,486 | 45% | 66% | +$1,550 | -$2,870 | 11.3% | $-2,594 (vs do-nothing $-3,284) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.25 | 2/5 | $7,929 | $6,746 | 38% | 63% | +$1,042 | -$3,163 | 12.4% | $-2,749 (vs do-nothing $-3,439) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.