5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $374.86 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,339/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,022/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 4 × $360 | 67% | $6,857 | $2,088 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 4 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.3% | 88% | 24% | $496 | $2,126 | -$4,731 | $448 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $372.50 5.3% OTM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.27 mid) = $496 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,126/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $373.77) 90% EV / mo +$1,171 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.6] median · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 83% without) · ~3.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $42 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,570 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $399 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.30/sh now → $5.16 mid-life (likely $4.21–$7.71) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.24/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 488 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $376 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $372.50 is $2 below CC-SS $374.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.31/sh (~25% of the $1.24 collected) or spot ≥ $373.77 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $372.50): -$448 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$149 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-299 (+$8,301 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,044, the opportunity cost of earning $2,126/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.2% | 77% | 47% | $1,270 | $5,443 | -$1,414 | $3,660 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 3.2% OTM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.60 mid) = $1,270 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,443/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $367.61) 82% EV / mo +$2,216 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.4] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~5.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,000 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 35% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,260 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.16/sh now → $5.06 mid-life (likely $5.51–$8.35) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.54/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.52/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,061 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $10 below CC-SS $374.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.54 collected) or spot ≥ $367.61 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$3,660 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,660 (+$4,940 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,405, the opportunity cost of earning $5,443/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 67% | 56% | $1,600 | $6,857 | — | $4,344 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $360 1.8% OTM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.08 mid) = $1,600 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $364.07) 75% EV / mo +$2,173 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.3] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~7.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,486 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 56% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$397 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.06/sh now → $4.99 mid-life (likely $6.15–$9.02) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,672 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $364 (overshoots $3.64). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $15 below CC-SS $374.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $364.07 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $360): -$4,344 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $400): +$149 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,195 (+$4,405 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,940, the opportunity cost of earning $6,857/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.3% | 48% | 99+% | $3,625 | $15,536 | +$8,679 | $7,555 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.3% ITM over spot $353.60 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.40 mid) = $3,625 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,536/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 48% Breach risk 52% POP (stays ≤ $359.90) 66% EV / mo +$2,959 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,181 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 90% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.91/sh now → $4.89 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $22 below CC-SS $374.86: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.81/sh (~25% of the $7.25 collected) or spot ≥ $359.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.62 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.86, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,600 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$7,555 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,555 (+$1,045 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $745 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,300, the opportunity cost of earning $15,536/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.809 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $745
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.40 | 5/5 | $6,857 | $4,835 | 71% | 78% | +$1,998 | -$0 | 0.0% | $770 (vs do-nothing +$25) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 5/5 | $7,768 | $5,746 | 68% | 76% | +$2,168 | -$55 | 0.2% | $-55 (vs do-nothing $-800) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 4/5 | $6,857 | $5,154 | 67% | 75% | +$2,173 | -$4,344 | 17.0% | $-4,195 (vs do-nothing $-4,940) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 4/5 | $6,943 | $5,240 | 66% | 75% | +$1,802 | -$704 | 2.8% | $-555 (vs do-nothing $-1,300) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.75 | 5/5 | $6,964 | $4,942 | 64% | 74% | +$1,642 | -$55 | 0.2% | $-55 (vs do-nothing $-800) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.05 | 4/5 | $7,757 | $6,054 | 63% | 73% | +$1,882 | -$1,324 | 5.2% | $-1,175 (vs do-nothing $-1,920) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $8,229 | $6,526 | 61% | 72% | +$2,074 | -$5,024 | 19.7% | $-4,875 (vs do-nothing $-5,620) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.75 | 4/5 | $6,714 | $5,012 | 59% | 71% | +$1,388 | -$1,244 | 4.9% | $-1,095 (vs do-nothing $-1,840) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.95 | 3/5 | $7,039 | $5,656 | 57% | 70% | +$1,359 | -$1,923 | 7.5% | $-1,625 (vs do-nothing $-2,370) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/5 | $7,714 | $6,331 | 54% | 69% | +$1,758 | -$4,158 | 16.3% | $-3,860 (vs do-nothing $-4,605) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.05 | 4/5 | $8,029 | $6,326 | 54% | 68% | +$1,453 | -$2,324 | 9.1% | $-2,175 (vs do-nothing $-2,920) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.15 | 3/5 | $7,811 | $6,427 | 54% | 68% | +$1,403 | -$2,313 | 9.1% | $-2,015 (vs do-nothing $-2,760) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.55 | 3/5 | $8,711 | $7,327 | 50% | 67% | +$1,514 | -$2,643 | 10.4% | $-2,345 (vs do-nothing $-3,090) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.25 | 3/5 | $9,321 | $7,938 | 48% | 66% | +$1,776 | -$4,533 | 17.8% | $-4,235 (vs do-nothing $-4,980) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.35 | 3/5 | $7,007 | $5,624 | 48% | 66% | +$997 | -$2,553 | 10.0% | $-2,255 (vs do-nothing $-3,000) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.80 | 3/5 | $9,514 | $8,131 | 47% | 66% | +$1,466 | -$3,018 | 11.8% | $-2,720 (vs do-nothing $-3,465) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.20 | 2/5 | $6,943 | $5,879 | 44% | 65% | +$969 | -$2,232 | 8.8% | $-1,785 (vs do-nothing $-2,530) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.15 | 2/5 | $8,700 | $7,636 | 36% | 62% | +$1,056 | -$3,442 | 13.5% | $-2,995 (vs do-nothing $-3,740) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.