5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $372.53 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,286/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,048/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,600 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $362.50 | 72% | $6,964 | $1,999 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $375 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.0% | 91% | 19% | $495 | $2,121 | -$4,843 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $375 6.0% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.04 mid) = $495 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,121/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $376.04) 92% EV / mo +$1,286 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.2] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 80% without) · ~2.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $-255 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 13% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,216 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.67/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $4.43–$8.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.99/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.43/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 383 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $379 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $372.53: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $0.99 collected) or spot ≥ $376.04 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,600 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $0 (+$7,600 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $740 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-740, the opportunity cost of earning $2,121/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal ← lean | 5 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.9% | 81% | 38% | $1,085 | $4,650 | -$2,314 | $1,428 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $367.50 3.9% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.21 mid) = $1,085 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,650/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 81% Breach risk 19% POP (stays ≤ $369.71) 85% EV / mo +$2,291 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.3] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.6 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $812 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 29% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,572 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $399 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.52/sh now → $5.31 mid-life (likely $5.29–$8.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.17/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 858 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.46). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $367.50 is $5 below CC-SS $372.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.54/sh (~25% of the $2.17 collected) or spot ≥ $369.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,600 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $367.50): -$1,428 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,428 (+$6,172 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $740 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,168, the opportunity cost of earning $4,650/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.5% | 72% | 44% | $1,625 | $6,964 | — | $3,388 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $362.50 2.5% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.40 mid) = $1,625 credit for the 7d cycle → $6,964/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $365.90) 78% EV / mo +$2,525 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 82% without) · ~5.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,435 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$996 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $404 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.41/sh now → $5.24 mid-life (likely $6.05–$9.08) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.25/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.99/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,326 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.53). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $10 below CC-SS $372.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.81/sh (~25% of the $3.25 collected) or spot ≥ $365.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,600 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $362.50): -$3,388 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,388 (+$4,212 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $740 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,128, the opportunity cost of earning $6,964/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $355 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.4% | 54% | 94% | $3,175 | $13,607 | +$6,643 | $5,588 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 0.4% OTM over spot $353.76 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.45 mid) = $3,175 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,607/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 54% Breach risk 46% POP (stays ≤ $361.45) 69% EV / mo +$3,512 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-1.1] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~8.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,834 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 74% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$608 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.26/sh now → $5.13 mid-life (likely $7.03–$10.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,223 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $359 (overshoots $3.98). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $18 below CC-SS $372.53: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.59/sh (~25% of the $6.35 collected) or spot ≥ $361.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.63 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $372.53, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,600 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,600 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$5,588 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,588 (+$2,012 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $740 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,328, the opportunity cost of earning $13,607/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 19 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.810 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,600 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $740
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $362.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.25 | 5/5 | $6,964 | $4,916 | 72% | 78% | +$2,525 | -$3,388 | 13.3% | $-3,388 (vs do-nothing $-4,128) |
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 5/5 | $7,071 | $5,023 | 71% | 78% | +$2,156 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,037 (vs do-nothing +$1,297) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.35 | 5/5 | $7,875 | $5,827 | 68% | 76% | +$2,219 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,162 (vs do-nothing +$422) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.15 | 4/5 | $7,114 | $5,383 | 66% | 75% | +$2,358 | -$3,350 | 13.1% | $-3,202 (vs do-nothing $-3,942) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.20 | 4/5 | $7,029 | $5,297 | 65% | 74% | +$1,843 | -$0 | 0.0% | $418 (vs do-nothing $-322) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.00 | 5/5 | $7,143 | $5,095 | 64% | 74% | +$1,786 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,237 (vs do-nothing +$497) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.10 | 4/5 | $7,800 | $6,069 | 63% | 73% | +$1,880 | -$370 | 1.5% | $-222 (vs do-nothing $-962) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.15 | 4/5 | $8,829 | $7,097 | 60% | 72% | +$2,572 | -$3,950 | 15.5% | $-3,802 (vs do-nothing $-4,542) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.00 | 4/5 | $6,857 | $5,126 | 59% | 71% | +$1,495 | -$210 | 0.8% | $-62 (vs do-nothing $-802) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 3/5 | $7,200 | $5,786 | 56% | 70% | +$1,485 | -$1,148 | 4.5% | $-852 (vs do-nothing $-1,592) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 3/5 | $8,164 | $6,750 | 54% | 69% | +$2,107 | -$3,353 | 13.1% | $-3,057 (vs do-nothing $-3,797) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.05 | 4/5 | $8,029 | $6,297 | 53% | 68% | +$1,406 | -$1,390 | 5.5% | $-1,242 (vs do-nothing $-1,982) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.40 | 3/5 | $7,971 | $6,557 | 53% | 68% | +$1,528 | -$1,538 | 6.0% | $-1,242 (vs do-nothing $-1,982) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.65 | 3/5 | $8,775 | $7,361 | 50% | 67% | +$1,542 | -$1,913 | 7.5% | $-1,617 (vs do-nothing $-2,357) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.80 | 3/5 | $7,200 | $5,786 | 48% | 66% | +$1,145 | -$1,718 | 6.7% | $-1,422 (vs do-nothing $-2,162) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 3/5 | $9,771 | $8,357 | 48% | 67% | +$2,100 | -$3,728 | 14.6% | $-3,432 (vs do-nothing $-4,172) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.00 | 3/5 | $9,643 | $8,229 | 47% | 66% | +$1,557 | -$2,258 | 8.9% | $-1,962 (vs do-nothing $-2,702) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.45 | 2/5 | $7,050 | $5,953 | 44% | 65% | +$1,050 | -$1,715 | 6.7% | $-1,271 (vs do-nothing $-2,011) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 2/5 | $8,957 | $7,860 | 35% | 62% | +$1,200 | -$2,915 | 11.4% | $-2,471 (vs do-nothing $-3,211) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.