5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $374.52 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,650/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,007/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,850 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $362.50 | 69% | $8,036 | $2,574 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $375 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.6% | 89% | 22% | $575 | $2,464 | -$5,571 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $375 5.6% OTM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.19 mid) = $575 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 89% Breach risk 11% POP (stays ≤ $376.19) 90% EV / mo +$1,441 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.9] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~2.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $-94 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 15% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,069 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.48/sh now → $5.29 mid-life (likely $4.91–$7.84) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.15/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.14/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 457 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $379 (overshoots $3.68). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $374.52: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.29/sh (~25% of the $1.15 collected) or spot ≥ $376.19 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,850 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-0 (+$7,850 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-800, the opportunity cost of earning $2,464/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 79% | 43% | $1,200 | $5,143 | -$2,893 | $2,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $367.50 3.5% OTM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.49 mid) = $1,200 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $369.99) 83% EV / mo +$2,291 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~3.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,639 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,391 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $390 @ 91% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.33/sh now → $5.18 mid-life (likely $5.40–$8.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.78/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 992 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.44). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $367.50 is $7 below CC-SS $374.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.40 collected) or spot ≥ $369.99 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,850 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $367.50): -$2,311 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,311 (+$5,539 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,111, the opportunity cost of earning $5,143/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.1% | 69% | 50% | $1,875 | $8,036 | — | $4,136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $362.50 2.1% OTM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.88 mid) = $1,875 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,036/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $366.38) 77% EV / mo +$2,763 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 87% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~5.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,204 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$681 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $385 @ 91% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.23/sh now → $5.11 mid-life (likely $6.13–$9.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.36/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,496 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $12 below CC-SS $374.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.94/sh (~25% of the $3.75 collected) or spot ≥ $366.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,850 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $362.50): -$4,136 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,136 (+$3,714 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,936, the opportunity cost of earning $8,036/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $355 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.1% | 50% | 99+% | $3,400 | $14,571 | +$6,536 | $6,361 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 0.1% ITM over spot $355.21 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.00 mid) = $3,400 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $362.00) 67% EV / mo +$2,963 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$897 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $378 @ 91% POP 88% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.08/sh now → $5.01 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.79/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $20 below CC-SS $374.52: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.70/sh (~25% of the $6.80 collected) or spot ≥ $362.00 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.77 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.52, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,850 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,850 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$6,361 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,361 (+$1,489 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $800 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,161, the opportunity cost of earning $14,571/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.813 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,850 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $800
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.85 | 5/5 | $8,411 | $6,404 | 72% | 82% | +$5,141 | -$0 | 0.0% | $414 (vs do-nothing $-386) |
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.85 | 5/5 | $7,339 | $5,333 | 70% | 77% | +$2,089 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,164 (vs do-nothing +$364) |
| $362.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.75 | 5/5 | $8,036 | $6,029 | 69% | 77% | +$2,763 | -$4,136 | 16.2% | $-4,136 (vs do-nothing $-4,936) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 5/5 | $7,464 | $5,458 | 65% | 78% | +$3,689 | -$0 | 0.0% | $464 (vs do-nothing $-336) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.75 | 4/5 | $7,500 | $5,836 | 64% | 74% | +$1,963 | -$308 | 1.2% | $-148 (vs do-nothing $-948) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/5 | $8,143 | $6,479 | 63% | 74% | +$2,552 | -$3,908 | 15.3% | $-3,748 (vs do-nothing $-4,548) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.60 | 4/5 | $8,229 | $6,565 | 61% | 72% | +$1,912 | -$968 | 3.8% | $-808 (vs do-nothing $-1,608) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.65 | 4/5 | $7,229 | $5,565 | 58% | 75% | +$3,164 | -$748 | 2.9% | $-588 (vs do-nothing $-1,388) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.55 | 3/5 | $7,136 | $5,815 | 57% | 70% | +$1,680 | -$3,441 | 13.5% | $-3,121 (vs do-nothing $-3,921) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 3/5 | $7,586 | $6,265 | 55% | 75% | +$3,415 | -$1,566 | 6.1% | $-1,246 (vs do-nothing $-2,046) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.75 | 4/5 | $8,429 | $6,765 | 51% | 72% | +$3,084 | -$1,908 | 7.5% | $-1,748 (vs do-nothing $-2,548) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.95 | 3/5 | $8,325 | $7,004 | 51% | 73% | +$3,403 | -$1,971 | 7.7% | $-1,651 (vs do-nothing $-2,451) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/5 | $8,743 | $7,422 | 50% | 67% | +$1,778 | -$3,816 | 15.0% | $-3,496 (vs do-nothing $-4,296) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.35 | 3/5 | $9,225 | $7,904 | 48% | 66% | +$1,543 | -$2,301 | 9.0% | $-1,981 (vs do-nothing $-2,781) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $17.35 | 3/5 | $7,436 | $6,115 | 46% | 65% | +$1,044 | -$2,151 | 8.4% | $-1,831 (vs do-nothing $-2,631) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.35 | 2/5 | $7,157 | $6,179 | 44% | 65% | +$1,341 | -$2,734 | 10.7% | $-2,254 (vs do-nothing $-3,054) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.60 | 3/5 | $10,029 | $8,708 | 42% | 70% | +$3,350 | -$2,676 | 10.5% | $-2,356 (vs do-nothing $-3,156) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.