5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $367.46 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,518/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,978/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,730 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $362.50 | 70% | $8,571 | $2,904 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $377.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 6.4% | 85% | 30% | $505 | $2,164 | -$6,407 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $377.50 6.4% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.05 mid) = $505 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,164/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $377.50) 85% Breach risk 15% POP (stays ≤ $378.55) 86% EV / mo $-158 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-1.0] median · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 85% without) · ~1.8 challenges expected · median CC cash $-198 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,378 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.15/sh now → $5.77 mid-life (likely $4.79–$8.30) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.76/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 306 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $381 (overshoots $3.42). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $377.50 is at/above CC-SS $367.46: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.25/sh (~25% of the $1.01 collected) or spot ≥ $378.55 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $378)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,730 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $377.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-0 (+$5,730 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $795 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-795, the opportunity cost of earning $2,164/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.6% | 73% | 55% | $1,275 | $5,464 | -$3,107 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $367.50 3.6% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.67 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 73% Breach risk 27% POP (stays ≤ $370.17) 77% EV / mo $-508 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median · 90% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,143 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 31% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,532 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $403 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.94/sh now → $5.61 mid-life (likely $5.63–$9.03) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.06/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 943 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $367.46: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $370.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,730 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $367.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-0 (+$5,730 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $795 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-795, the opportunity cost of earning $5,464/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.2% | 70% | 48% | $2,000 | $8,571 | — | $482 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $362.50 2.2% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.12 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 70% Breach risk 30% POP (stays ≤ $366.62) 78% EV / mo +$3,579 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo) · 91% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~4.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,868 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 48% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$768 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $408 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.83/sh now → $5.54 mid-life (likely $6.46–$9.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.54/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,433 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.58). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $5 below CC-SS $367.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $366.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,730 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $362.50): -$482 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-482 (+$5,248 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $795 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,277, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $355 | 17 Jul | 7d | 0.1% | 52% | 99% | $3,700 | $15,857 | +$7,286 | $2,532 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 0.1% OTM over spot $354.73 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.45 mid) = $3,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 52% Breach risk 48% POP (stays ≤ $362.45) 70% EV / mo +$4,789 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.1 mo [0.0-0.4] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo) · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 85% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,436 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 78% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$989 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.67/sh now → $5.42 mid-life (likely $7.58–$11.11) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.98/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 2,353 simulated challenges: the $355 strike is typically first touched on day 2 of 7, at $359 (overshoots $4.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $12 below CC-SS $367.46: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.85/sh (~25% of the $7.40 collected) or spot ≥ $362.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.80 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.46, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,730 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$2,532 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,532 (+$3,198 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $795 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,327, the opportunity cost of earning $15,857/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$5,730 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $795
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/5 | $7,714 | $5,736 | 70% | 78% | +$2,665 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,600 (vs do-nothing +$2,805) |
| $362.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 5/5 | $8,571 | $6,593 | 70% | 78% | +$3,579 | -$482 | 1.9% | $-482 (vs do-nothing $-1,277) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 5/5 | $8,625 | $6,647 | 67% | 76% | +$2,805 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,025 (vs do-nothing +$3,230) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 4/5 | $7,671 | $6,034 | 65% | 74% | +$2,326 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,754 (vs do-nothing +$1,959) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/5 | $8,400 | $6,763 | 64% | 75% | +$3,098 | -$1,025 | 4.0% | $-866 (vs do-nothing $-1,661) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 5/5 | $7,857 | $5,879 | 63% | 74% | +$2,212 | -$0 | 0.0% | $4,268 (vs do-nothing +$3,473) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.20 | 4/5 | $8,743 | $7,106 | 62% | 73% | +$2,634 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,254 (vs do-nothing +$1,459) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 3/5 | $7,650 | $6,353 | 58% | 72% | +$2,464 | -$1,204 | 4.7% | $-886 (vs do-nothing $-1,681) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.10 | 4/5 | $7,486 | $5,848 | 58% | 70% | +$1,542 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,414 (vs do-nothing +$1,619) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.15 | 3/5 | $7,811 | $6,514 | 55% | 70% | +$1,904 | -$0 | 0.0% | $974 (vs do-nothing +$179) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.45 | 4/5 | $8,829 | $7,191 | 52% | 68% | +$1,605 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,354 (vs do-nothing +$559) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.55 | 3/5 | $8,711 | $7,414 | 52% | 69% | +$2,049 | -$0 | 0.0% | $644 (vs do-nothing $-151) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/5 | $9,514 | $8,218 | 52% | 70% | +$2,873 | -$1,519 | 6.0% | $-1,201 (vs do-nothing $-1,996) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.85 | 3/5 | $9,546 | $8,250 | 49% | 68% | +$2,067 | -$34 | 0.1% | $284 (vs do-nothing $-511) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $17.20 | 3/5 | $7,371 | $6,075 | 47% | 65% | +$861 | -$79 | 0.3% | $239 (vs do-nothing $-556) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.25 | 3/5 | $10,446 | $9,150 | 46% | 66% | +$2,086 | -$364 | 1.4% | $-46 (vs do-nothing $-841) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 2/5 | $7,371 | $6,416 | 45% | 67% | +$1,806 | -$1,273 | 5.0% | $-796 (vs do-nothing $-1,591) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.