5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $370.02 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,325/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $1,978/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-5,730 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $362.50 | 69% | $8,571 | $2,895 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 3 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.9% | 86% | 28% | $483 | $2,070 | -$6,501 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 3 × $372.50 4.9% OTM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.70 mid) = $483 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,070/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $374.20) 88% EV / mo +$1,176 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.5] median · 85% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 84% without) · ~2.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $224 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 19% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,162 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 3 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.76/sh now → $5.48 mid-life (likely $5.18–$8.39) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.61/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.87/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 570 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $376 (overshoots $3.56). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $370.02: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.40/sh (~25% of the $1.61 collected) or spot ≥ $374.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $370.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,055 − CC assignment net of premium (3 × $372.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (2 × $400): +$318 Total Position P&L @ SS: $643 (+$6,373 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-477, the opportunity cost of earning $2,070/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $367.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.5% | 72% | 57% | $1,275 | $5,464 | -$3,107 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $367.50 3.5% OTM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.67 mid) = $1,275 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,464/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $367.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $370.17) 76% EV / mo $-763 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.9] median · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,143 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,430 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $402 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.65/sh now → $5.41 mid-life (likely $5.72–$8.89) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.55/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.86/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 981 simulated challenges: the $368 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $371 (overshoots $3.48). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $367.50 is at/above CC-SS $370.02: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.64/sh (~25% of the $2.55 collected) or spot ≥ $370.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $368)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $370.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,055 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $367.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $325 (+$6,055 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-795, the opportunity cost of earning $5,464/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.1% | 69% | 50% | $2,000 | $8,571 | — | $1,760 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $362.50 2.1% OTM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $4.12 mid) = $2,000 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,571/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 69% Breach risk 31% POP (stays ≤ $366.62) 77% EV / mo +$3,297 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.9] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 92% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 84% without) · ~3.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,802 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$668 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $407 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.55/sh now → $5.34 mid-life (likely $6.41–$9.44) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.34/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,489 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $366 (overshoots $3.59). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $8 below CC-SS $370.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.00/sh (~25% of the $4.00 collected) or spot ≥ $366.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $370.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,055 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $362.50): -$1,760 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,435 (+$4,295 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,555, the opportunity cost of earning $8,571/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $355 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.1% | 50% | 99+% | $3,700 | $15,857 | +$7,286 | $3,810 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 0.1% ITM over spot $355.18 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.45 mid) = $3,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $15,857/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 50% Breach risk 50% POP (stays ≤ $362.45) 69% EV / mo +$4,300 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,087 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.39/sh now → $5.23 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $15 below CC-SS $370.02: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.85/sh (~25% of the $7.40 collected) or spot ≥ $362.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.82 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.82 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $370.02, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-5,730 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$6,055 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$3,810 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,485 (+$2,245 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $1,120 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,605, the opportunity cost of earning $15,857/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.816 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$6,055 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,120
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/5 | $7,714 | $5,736 | 70% | 77% | +$2,521 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,915 (vs do-nothing +$2,795) |
| $362.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.00 | 5/5 | $8,571 | $6,593 | 69% | 77% | +$3,297 | -$1,760 | 6.9% | $-1,435 (vs do-nothing $-2,555) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.05 | 5/5 | $8,625 | $6,647 | 67% | 76% | +$2,645 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,090 (vs do-nothing +$1,970) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.95 | 4/5 | $7,671 | $6,034 | 64% | 74% | +$2,185 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,056 (vs do-nothing +$936) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.00 | 5/5 | $7,857 | $5,879 | 62% | 73% | +$1,683 | -$0 | 0.0% | $3,315 (vs do-nothing +$2,195) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.20 | 4/5 | $8,743 | $7,106 | 61% | 73% | +$2,479 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,556 (vs do-nothing +$436) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.90 | 4/5 | $8,400 | $6,763 | 60% | 68% | $-640 | -$2,048 | 8.0% | $-1,564 (vs do-nothing $-2,684) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.10 | 4/5 | $7,486 | $5,848 | 57% | 70% | +$1,423 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,716 (vs do-nothing +$596) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.95 | 3/5 | $7,650 | $6,353 | 55% | 66% | $-461 | -$1,971 | 7.7% | $-1,328 (vs do-nothing $-2,448) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.15 | 3/5 | $7,811 | $6,514 | 55% | 70% | +$1,766 | -$111 | 0.4% | $532 (vs do-nothing $-588) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.45 | 4/5 | $8,829 | $7,191 | 52% | 68% | +$1,470 | -$0 | 0.0% | $656 (vs do-nothing $-464) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.55 | 3/5 | $8,711 | $7,414 | 52% | 68% | +$1,900 | -$441 | 1.7% | $202 (vs do-nothing $-918) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.40 | 3/5 | $9,514 | $8,218 | 50% | 69% | +$2,580 | -$2,286 | 9.0% | $-1,643 (vs do-nothing $-2,763) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.85 | 3/5 | $9,546 | $8,250 | 48% | 67% | +$1,907 | -$801 | 3.1% | $-158 (vs do-nothing $-1,278) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.60 | 2/5 | $7,371 | $6,416 | 46% | 62% | $-151 | -$1,784 | 7.0% | $-982 (vs do-nothing $-2,102) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $17.20 | 3/5 | $7,371 | $6,075 | 46% | 65% | +$991 | -$846 | 3.3% | $-203 (vs do-nothing $-1,323) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.25 | 3/5 | $10,446 | $9,150 | 45% | 66% | +$1,916 | -$1,131 | 4.4% | $-488 (vs do-nothing $-1,608) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.