5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.16 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,125/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,094/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,438 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $360 | 66% | $8,143 | $2,437 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.2% | 88% | 24% | $535 | $2,293 | -$5,850 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $372.50 5.2% OTM over spot $354.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.12 mid) = $535 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,293/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $373.62) 89% EV / mo +$1,102 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.7] median · 81% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 81% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $-254 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,976 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 82% POP 78% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.10/sh now → $5.02 mid-life (likely $4.48–$7.46) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.07/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.95/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 492 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $376 (overshoots $3.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $373.16: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.27/sh (~25% of the $1.07 collected) or spot ≥ $373.62 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,665 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $227 (+$7,665 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $977 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-750, the opportunity cost of earning $2,293/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.1% | 77% | 47% | $1,195 | $5,121 | -$3,021 | $2,883 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 3.1% OTM over spot $354.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.46 mid) = $1,195 credit for the 7d cycle → $5,121/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $367.45) 81% EV / mo +$1,903 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~4.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,007 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,265 Free roll-up +$13/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 87% POP 85% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.96/sh now → $4.92 mid-life (likely $5.31–$8.21) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.39/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,078 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.36). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $8 below CC-SS $373.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.60/sh (~25% of the $2.39 collected) or spot ≥ $367.45 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,665 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$2,883 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,656 (+$4,782 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $977 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,633, the opportunity cost of earning $5,121/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.6% | 66% | 55% | $1,900 | $8,143 | — | $4,678 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 1.6% OTM over spot $354.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.92 mid) = $1,900 credit for the 7d cycle → $8,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 66% Breach risk 34% POP (stays ≤ $363.93) 75% EV / mo +$2,242 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.5 mo [0.2-1.6] median, 0.2 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~6.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,621 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 55% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$527 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $393 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.86/sh now → $4.85 mid-life (likely $5.93–$8.69) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.05/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,646 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.41). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $13 below CC-SS $373.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.95/sh (~25% of the $3.80 collected) or spot ≥ $363.93 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,665 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$4,678 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,451 (+$2,987 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $977 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,428, the opportunity cost of earning $8,143/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.5% | 46% | 99+% | $3,750 | $16,071 | +$7,929 | $6,578 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.5% ITM over spot $354.16 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $7.62 mid) = $3,750 credit for the 7d cycle → $16,071/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 46% Breach risk 54% POP (stays ≤ $360.12) 66% EV / mo +$3,201 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,374 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 92% POP 91% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.72/sh now → $4.75 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $21 below CC-SS $373.16: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.88/sh (~25% of the $7.50 collected) or spot ≥ $360.12 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.68 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.16, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,438 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$7,665 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$6,578 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,351 (+$1,087 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $977 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,328, the opportunity cost of earning $16,071/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.807 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,665 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $977
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.35 | 5/5 | $6,804 | $4,709 | 71% | 77% | +$1,768 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,824 (vs do-nothing +$847) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 5/5 | $7,554 | $5,459 | 68% | 76% | +$1,757 | -$0 | 0.0% | $924 (vs do-nothing $-53) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 5/5 | $8,143 | $6,049 | 66% | 75% | +$2,242 | -$4,678 | 18.3% | $-4,451 (vs do-nothing $-5,428) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.80 | 4/5 | $6,686 | $4,913 | 65% | 74% | +$1,369 | -$142 | 0.6% | $235 (vs do-nothing $-742) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.55 | 5/5 | $6,821 | $4,727 | 64% | 73% | +$1,407 | -$0 | 0.0% | $924 (vs do-nothing $-53) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.20 | 4/5 | $7,886 | $6,113 | 62% | 73% | +$1,816 | -$582 | 2.3% | $-205 (vs do-nothing $-1,182) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.75 | 4/5 | $8,143 | $6,370 | 60% | 72% | +$1,906 | -$4,362 | 17.1% | $-3,985 (vs do-nothing $-4,962) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.15 | 4/5 | $6,943 | $5,170 | 58% | 71% | +$1,473 | -$402 | 1.6% | $-25 (vs do-nothing $-1,002) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.90 | 3/5 | $7,007 | $5,556 | 56% | 69% | +$1,152 | -$1,427 | 5.6% | $-899 (vs do-nothing $-1,877) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.85 | 3/5 | $7,521 | $6,070 | 53% | 68% | +$1,453 | -$3,692 | 14.5% | $-3,164 (vs do-nothing $-4,142) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.90 | 4/5 | $7,943 | $6,170 | 53% | 68% | +$1,271 | -$1,702 | 6.7% | $-1,325 (vs do-nothing $-2,302) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.25 | 3/5 | $7,875 | $6,424 | 53% | 69% | +$1,277 | -$1,772 | 6.9% | $-1,244 (vs do-nothing $-2,222) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.40 | 3/5 | $8,614 | $7,163 | 50% | 67% | +$1,213 | -$2,177 | 8.5% | $-1,649 (vs do-nothing $-2,627) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.50 | 3/5 | $7,071 | $5,620 | 47% | 66% | +$863 | -$1,997 | 7.8% | $-1,469 (vs do-nothing $-2,447) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.85 | 3/5 | $9,546 | $8,095 | 47% | 65% | +$1,281 | -$2,492 | 9.8% | $-1,964 (vs do-nothing $-2,942) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 3/5 | $9,643 | $8,191 | 46% | 66% | +$1,921 | -$3,947 | 15.5% | $-3,419 (vs do-nothing $-4,397) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.25 | 2/5 | $6,964 | $5,834 | 43% | 64% | +$836 | -$1,881 | 7.4% | $-1,204 (vs do-nothing $-2,181) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $10.30 | 2/5 | $8,829 | $7,699 | 34% | 61% | +$964 | -$3,071 | 12.0% | $-2,394 (vs do-nothing $-3,371) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.