5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.25 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $12,943/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,092/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,925 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $360 | 68% | $7,286 | $2,314 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $370 | 17 Jul | 7d | 4.8% | 86% | 28% | $610 | $2,614 | -$4,671 | $1,014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $370 4.8% OTM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.27 mid) = $610 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,614/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $370) 86% Breach risk 14% POP (stays ≤ $371.27) 88% EV / mo +$1,176 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.8] median · 80% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 79% without) · ~2.7 challenges expected · median CC cash $-157 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 18% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,805 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $397 @ 83% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.83/sh now → $4.83 mid-life (likely $4.01–$7.17) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.61/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 547 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $373 (overshoots $3.21). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $370 is $3 below CC-SS $373.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.30/sh (~25% of the $1.22 collected) or spot ≥ $371.27 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $370)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,122 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $370): -$1,014 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-818 (+$7,107 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $947 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,764, the opportunity cost of earning $2,614/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.4% | 79% | 43% | $1,025 | $4,393 | -$2,893 | $3,099 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 3.4% OTM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.14 mid) = $1,025 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,393/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 79% Breach risk 21% POP (stays ≤ $367.14) 82% EV / mo +$1,627 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 83% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~4.0 challenges expected · median CC cash $676 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,358 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $397 @ 85% POP 83% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.74/sh now → $4.77 mid-life (likely $4.96–$7.47) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 982 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.25). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $8 below CC-SS $373.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $367.14 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,122 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$3,099 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,903 (+$5,022 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $947 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,849, the opportunity cost of earning $4,393/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 2.0% | 68% | 49% | $1,700 | $7,286 | — | $4,924 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 2.0% OTM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.50 mid) = $1,700 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,286/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $363.50) 76% EV / mo +$2,168 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.2-1.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 86% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 77% without) · ~6.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,491 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 49% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$650 Free roll-up +$14/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $394 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.65/sh now → $4.70 mid-life (likely $5.63–$8.24) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.30/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,481 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.35). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $13 below CC-SS $373.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.85/sh (~25% of the $3.40 collected) or spot ≥ $363.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,122 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$4,924 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,728 (+$3,197 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $947 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,674, the opportunity cost of earning $7,286/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.1% | 49% | 99+% | $3,300 | $14,143 | +$6,857 | $7,074 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.1% ITM over spot $353.02 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.70 mid) = $3,300 credit for the 7d cycle → $14,143/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 49% Breach risk 51% POP (stays ≤ $359.20) 67% EV / mo +$2,682 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$999 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $388 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.51/sh now → $4.60 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.60/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $21 below CC-SS $373.25: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.65/sh (~25% of the $6.60 collected) or spot ≥ $359.20 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.80 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $373.25, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,122 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$7,074 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,878 (+$1,047 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $947 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-7,824, the opportunity cost of earning $14,143/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.803 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,122 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $947
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.10 | 5/5 | $6,536 | $4,444 | 72% | 78% | +$1,795 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,622 (vs do-nothing +$676) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.75 | 5/5 | $7,232 | $5,140 | 69% | 76% | +$1,777 | -$0 | 0.0% | $697 (vs do-nothing $-249) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.40 | 5/5 | $7,286 | $5,194 | 68% | 76% | +$2,168 | -$4,924 | 19.3% | $-4,728 (vs do-nothing $-5,674) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.55 | 5/5 | $8,089 | $5,997 | 66% | 75% | +$1,835 | -$349 | 1.4% | $-153 (vs do-nothing $-1,099) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 5/5 | $6,714 | $4,622 | 65% | 74% | +$1,482 | -$0 | 0.0% | $772 (vs do-nothing $-174) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.30 | 4/5 | $7,114 | $5,344 | 63% | 73% | +$1,400 | -$979 | 3.8% | $-633 (vs do-nothing $-1,579) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.30 | 4/5 | $7,371 | $5,601 | 62% | 73% | +$1,920 | -$4,579 | 18.0% | $-4,233 (vs do-nothing $-5,179) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.35 | 4/5 | $6,486 | $4,715 | 60% | 71% | +$1,251 | -$759 | 3.0% | $-413 (vs do-nothing $-1,359) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 3/5 | $6,686 | $5,236 | 57% | 70% | +$1,164 | -$1,605 | 6.3% | $-1,108 (vs do-nothing $-2,055) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.25 | 3/5 | $6,750 | $5,301 | 56% | 69% | +$1,398 | -$3,900 | 15.3% | $-3,403 (vs do-nothing $-4,350) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.60 | 3/5 | $7,457 | $6,008 | 54% | 69% | +$1,229 | -$1,995 | 7.8% | $-1,498 (vs do-nothing $-2,445) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 4/5 | $7,829 | $6,058 | 54% | 69% | +$1,364 | -$1,819 | 7.1% | $-1,473 (vs do-nothing $-2,419) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.60 | 3/5 | $8,100 | $6,651 | 51% | 67% | +$1,103 | -$2,445 | 9.6% | $-1,948 (vs do-nothing $-2,895) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.60 | 3/5 | $8,486 | $7,036 | 49% | 67% | +$1,609 | -$4,245 | 16.6% | $-3,748 (vs do-nothing $-4,695) |
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.10 | 3/5 | $6,900 | $5,451 | 49% | 66% | +$989 | -$2,145 | 8.4% | $-1,648 (vs do-nothing $-2,595) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.90 | 3/5 | $8,936 | $7,486 | 48% | 66% | +$1,109 | -$2,805 | 11.0% | $-2,308 (vs do-nothing $-3,255) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.30 | 2/5 | $6,557 | $5,429 | 45% | 64% | +$744 | -$2,090 | 8.2% | $-1,443 (vs do-nothing $-2,390) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.30 | 2/5 | $7,971 | $6,844 | 37% | 61% | +$827 | -$3,290 | 12.9% | $-2,643 (vs do-nothing $-3,590) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.