5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $374.59 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $12,568/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge rolling cost | $2,092/mo | |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,237 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15x $375C 10 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $1.85 | $2,779 | 2026-07-07 |
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 7d | 5 × $360 | 67% | $7,179 | $2,055 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | cover hedge | 5 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | 5.3% | 88% | 24% | $490 | $2,100 | -$5,079 | $557 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $372.50 5.3% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $1.04 mid) = $490 credit for the 7d cycle → $2,100/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 88% Breach risk 12% POP (stays ≤ $373.54) 89% EV / mo +$930 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.8 mo [0.3-1.9] median · 78% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 78% without) · ~2.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $-538 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 16% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,866 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $399 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.66/sh now → $4.71 mid-life (likely $4.13–$6.98) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 474 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 7, at $376 (overshoots $3.40). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $372.50 is $2 below CC-SS $374.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.24/sh (~25% of the $0.98 collected) or spot ≥ $373.54 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,237 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,433 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $372.50): -$557 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-362 (+$7,875 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,307, the opportunity cost of earning $2,100/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 7d | 3.2% | 77% | 46% | $1,045 | $4,479 | -$2,700 | $3,752 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 3.2% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $2.17 mid) = $1,045 credit for the 7d cycle → $4,479/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $367.17) 81% EV / mo +$1,400 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.7 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.8 mo) · 82% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~4.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $766 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 34% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,264 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 87% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.53/sh now → $4.62 mid-life (likely $4.91–$7.49) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.09/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.53/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,034 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $368 (overshoots $3.31). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $10 below CC-SS $374.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.52/sh (~25% of the $2.09 collected) or spot ≥ $367.17 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,237 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,433 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$3,752 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,557 (+$4,680 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,502, the opportunity cost of earning $4,479/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 7d | 1.8% | 67% | 52% | $1,675 | $7,179 | — | $5,622 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 1.8% OTM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $3.53 mid) = $1,675 credit for the 7d cycle → $7,179/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 67% Breach risk 33% POP (stays ≤ $363.52) 75% EV / mo +$1,574 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.6 mo [0.3-1.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.7 mo) · 84% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 76% without) · ~7.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,396 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 52% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$602 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $394 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.44/sh now → $4.55 mid-life (likely $5.48–$7.97) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,575 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 7, at $363 (overshoots $3.37). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $15 below CC-SS $374.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.84/sh (~25% of the $3.35 collected) or spot ≥ $363.52 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,237 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,433 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$5,622 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,427 (+$2,810 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-6,372, the opportunity cost of earning $7,179/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 7d | -0.3% | 48% | 99+% | $3,250 | $13,929 | +$6,750 | $7,797 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.3% ITM over spot $353.67 17 Jul 2026 (7d, $6.72 mid) = $3,250 credit for the 7d cycle → $13,929/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 48% Breach risk 52% POP (stays ≤ $359.23) 65% EV / mo +$1,667 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,020 Free roll-up +$15/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $388 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.31/sh now → $4.46 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.04/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $22 below CC-SS $374.59: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.62/sh (~25% of the $6.50 collected) or spot ≥ $359.23 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.66 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $374.59, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,237 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$8,433 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$7,797 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,602 (+$635 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $945 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-8,547, the opportunity cost of earning $13,929/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.806 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,433 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $945
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.15 | 5/5 | $6,589 | $4,497 | 71% | 77% | +$1,642 | -$0 | 0.0% | $973 (vs do-nothing +$28) |
| $367.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 5/5 | $7,286 | $5,194 | 68% | 76% | +$1,603 | -$147 | 0.6% | $48 (vs do-nothing $-897) |
| $360 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 5/5 | $7,179 | $5,086 | 67% | 75% | +$1,574 | -$5,622 | 22.0% | $-5,427 (vs do-nothing $-6,372) |
| $365 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.60 | 4/5 | $6,514 | $4,744 | 66% | 74% | +$1,312 | -$798 | 3.1% | $-453 (vs do-nothing $-1,398) |
| $365 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.50 | 5/5 | $6,786 | $4,694 | 64% | 73% | +$1,369 | -$47 | 0.2% | $148 (vs do-nothing $-797) |
| $362.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 4/5 | $7,243 | $5,472 | 63% | 72% | +$1,312 | -$1,458 | 5.7% | $-1,113 (vs do-nothing $-2,058) |
| $357.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 4/5 | $7,286 | $5,515 | 61% | 71% | +$1,364 | -$5,138 | 20.1% | $-4,793 (vs do-nothing $-5,738) |
| $360 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.50 | 4/5 | $6,571 | $4,801 | 59% | 71% | +$1,174 | -$1,238 | 4.9% | $-893 (vs do-nothing $-1,838) |
| $357.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 3/5 | $6,686 | $5,236 | 57% | 69% | +$973 | -$2,008 | 7.9% | $-1,513 (vs do-nothing $-2,458) |
| $355 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.30 | 3/5 | $6,814 | $5,365 | 54% | 68% | +$1,046 | -$4,288 | 16.8% | $-3,793 (vs do-nothing $-4,738) |
| $355 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 4/5 | $7,829 | $6,058 | 53% | 68% | +$1,184 | -$2,358 | 9.2% | $-2,013 (vs do-nothing $-2,958) |
| $355 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 3/5 | $7,586 | $6,136 | 53% | 68% | +$1,151 | -$2,338 | 9.2% | $-1,843 (vs do-nothing $-2,788) |
| $352.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.90 | 3/5 | $8,293 | $6,844 | 50% | 67% | +$1,074 | -$2,758 | 10.8% | $-2,263 (vs do-nothing $-3,208) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 21d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.20 | 3/5 | $6,943 | $5,494 | 48% | 66% | +$882 | -$2,518 | 9.9% | $-2,023 (vs do-nothing $-2,968) |
| $352.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.50 | 3/5 | $8,357 | $6,908 | 48% | 65% | +$1,000 | -$4,678 | 18.3% | $-4,183 (vs do-nothing $-5,128) |
| $350 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.25 | 3/5 | $9,161 | $7,711 | 47% | 65% | +$1,097 | -$3,103 | 12.2% | $-2,608 (vs do-nothing $-3,553) |
| $347.50 | 14d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.40 | 2/5 | $6,600 | $5,472 | 44% | 64% | +$619 | -$2,339 | 9.2% | $-1,694 (vs do-nothing $-2,639) |
| $347.50 | 7d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.40 | 2/5 | $8,057 | $6,929 | 35% | 60% | +$513 | -$3,539 | 13.9% | $-2,894 (vs do-nothing $-3,839) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.