5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $367.62 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,990/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,037/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-8,388 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 5 × $360 | 71% | $7,500 | $2,672 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.5% | 92% | 17% | $405 | $2,025 | -$5,475 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $372.50 5.5% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.84 mid) = $405 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,025/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $373.34) 92% EV / mo +$1,298 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.4] median · 88% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 89% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,199 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 10% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,862 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 84% POP 80% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.41/sh now → $4.53 mid-life (likely $3.89–$6.72) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.81/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.72/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 293 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $376 (overshoots $3.20). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $367.62: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.20/sh (~25% of the $0.81 collected) or spot ≥ $373.34 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,388 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,918 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,470 (+$5,918 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-750, the opportunity cost of earning $2,025/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 4 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.7% | 77% | 48% | $936 | $4,680 | -$2,820 | $1,113 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $362.50 2.7% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.40 mid) = $936 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,680/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 77% Breach risk 23% POP (stays ≤ $364.90) 82% EV / mo +$2,049 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 94% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 89% without) · ~2.9 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,097 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 36% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$829 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 89% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.24/sh now → $4.41 mid-life (likely $4.67–$7.29) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.34/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.07/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,070 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $366 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $362.50 is $5 below CC-SS $367.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.58/sh (~25% of the $2.34 collected) or spot ≥ $364.90 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,388 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,918 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $362.50): -$1,113 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $397.50): +$150 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,433 (+$4,955 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-1,713, the opportunity cost of earning $4,680/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.0% | 71% | 44% | $1,500 | $7,500 | — | $2,311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 2.0% OTM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.10 mid) = $1,500 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 71% Breach risk 29% POP (stays ≤ $363.10) 78% EV / mo +$2,831 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.1-0.8] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.5 mo) · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~3.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,975 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 44% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$691 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $402 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.20/sh now → $4.38 mid-life (likely $5.12–$7.67) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.38/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,322 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $3.15). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $8 below CC-SS $367.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.75/sh (~25% of the $3.00 collected) or spot ≥ $363.10 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,388 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,918 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$2,311 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,781 (+$3,606 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-3,061, the opportunity cost of earning $7,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.1% | 49% | 99+% | $3,000 | $15,000 | +$7,500 | $4,561 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.1% ITM over spot $352.98 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $6.17 mid) = $3,000 credit for the 6d cycle → $15,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 49% Breach risk 51% POP (stays ≤ $358.68) 67% EV / mo +$3,214 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$855 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.07/sh now → $4.29 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $15 below CC-SS $367.62: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.50/sh (~25% of the $6.00 collected) or spot ≥ $358.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.65 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.62, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-8,388 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,918 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$4,561 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-7,031 (+$1,356 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,720 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-5,311, the opportunity cost of earning $15,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.808 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,918 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,720
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.00 | 5/5 | $7,500 | $7,500 | 71% | 78% | +$2,831 | -$2,311 | 9.1% | $-4,781 (vs do-nothing $-3,061) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.65 | 5/5 | $7,673 | $7,673 | 70% | 77% | +$2,317 | -$0 | 0.0% | $794 (vs do-nothing +$2,514) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.50 | 5/5 | $8,654 | $8,654 | 67% | 75% | +$2,462 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-31 (vs do-nothing +$1,689) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.80 | 4/5 | $7,600 | $7,946 | 64% | 74% | +$2,397 | -$2,529 | 9.9% | $-4,849 (vs do-nothing $-3,129) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.45 | 4/5 | $7,800 | $8,146 | 64% | 74% | +$2,099 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-989 (vs do-nothing +$731) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.15 | 5/5 | $8,363 | $8,363 | 60% | 72% | +$1,849 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-706 (vs do-nothing +$1,014) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.50 | 3/5 | $7,269 | $7,962 | 58% | 71% | +$1,682 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-2,057 (vs do-nothing $-337) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.85 | 3/5 | $7,275 | $7,967 | 57% | 71% | +$1,959 | -$2,332 | 9.1% | $-4,502 (vs do-nothing $-2,782) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 3/5 | $8,065 | $8,758 | 54% | 69% | +$1,722 | -$292 | 1.1% | $-2,462 (vs do-nothing $-742) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.45 | 4/5 | $8,070 | $8,416 | 54% | 69% | +$1,602 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,989 (vs do-nothing $-269) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.60 | 3/5 | $8,723 | $9,415 | 51% | 67% | +$1,555 | -$757 | 3.0% | $-2,927 (vs do-nothing $-1,207) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.00 | 3/5 | $9,000 | $9,692 | 49% | 67% | +$1,928 | -$2,737 | 10.7% | $-4,907 (vs do-nothing $-3,187) |
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.85 | 3/5 | $7,132 | $7,825 | 49% | 66% | +$1,170 | -$532 | 2.1% | $-2,702 (vs do-nothing $-982) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.05 | 3/5 | $9,727 | $10,419 | 48% | 66% | +$1,664 | -$1,072 | 4.2% | $-3,242 (vs do-nothing $-1,522) |
| $347.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.95 | 3/5 | $10,350 | $11,042 | 44% | 65% | +$1,322 | -$1,552 | 6.1% | $-3,722 (vs do-nothing $-2,002) |
| $347.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.70 | 2/5 | $8,700 | $9,738 | 35% | 61% | +$953 | -$2,285 | 9.0% | $-4,304 (vs do-nothing $-2,585) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.