5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $367.20 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $13,962/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,017/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,725 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 5 × $360 | 68% | $8,250 | $2,765 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $372.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.2% | 91% | 18% | $415 | $2,075 | -$6,175 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $372.50 5.2% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.87 mid) = $415 credit for the 6d cycle → $2,075/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $372.50) 91% Breach risk 9% POP (stays ≤ $373.37) 92% EV / mo +$1,298 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.3] median · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 89% without) · ~1.1 challenges expected · median CC cash $836 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 11% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,875 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $398 @ 83% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.48/sh now → $4.58 mid-life (likely $3.93–$6.86) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.83/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 339 simulated challenges: the $372 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $376 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $372.50 is at/above CC-SS $367.20: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.21/sh (~25% of the $0.83 collected) or spot ≥ $373.37 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $372)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,280 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $372.50): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,445 (+$5,280 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-785, the opportunity cost of earning $2,075/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 6d | 3.1% | 80% | 41% | $990 | $4,950 | -$3,300 | $110 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 3.1% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.01 mid) = $990 credit for the 6d cycle → $4,950/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 80% Breach risk 20% POP (stays ≤ $367.01) 84% EV / mo +$2,370 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.4 mo [0.2-1.0] median · 93% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~2.4 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,980 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 30% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,254 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 88% POP 87% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.35/sh now → $4.49 mid-life (likely $4.56–$7.56) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.98/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.51/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 892 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 6, at $368 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $365 is $2 below CC-SS $367.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.49/sh (~25% of the $1.98 collected) or spot ≥ $367.01 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,280 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$110 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-2,555 (+$5,170 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-895, the opportunity cost of earning $4,950/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.6% | 68% | 50% | $1,650 | $8,250 | — | $1,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 1.6% OTM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.40 mid) = $1,650 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,250/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 68% Breach risk 32% POP (stays ≤ $363.40) 76% EV / mo +$2,916 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.7] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.4 mo) · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 88% without) · ~3.5 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,240 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 50% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$563 Free roll-up +$16/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $401 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.26/sh now → $4.43 mid-life (likely $5.28–$7.73) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.30/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.13/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,487 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $2.93). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $7 below CC-SS $367.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.82/sh (~25% of the $3.30 collected) or spot ≥ $363.40 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,280 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$1,950 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-4,395 (+$3,330 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,735, the opportunity cost of earning $8,250/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.5% | 46% | 99+% | $3,400 | $17,000 | +$8,750 | $3,950 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.5% ITM over spot $354.19 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $6.88 mid) = $3,400 credit for the 6d cycle → $17,000/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 46% Breach risk 54% POP (stays ≤ $359.38) 66% EV / mo +$3,711 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,233 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 91% POP 90% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.13/sh now → $4.33 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.80/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.47/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $15 below CC-SS $367.20: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.70/sh (~25% of the $6.80 collected) or spot ≥ $359.38 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.67 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.81 (IBKR)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $367.20, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-7,725 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,280 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$3,950 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-6,395 (+$1,330 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,660 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,735, the opportunity cost of earning $17,000/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 18 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.812 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$5,280 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,660
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.25 | 5/5 | $7,212 | $7,212 | 71% | 78% | +$2,282 | -$0 | 0.0% | $680 (vs do-nothing +$2,340) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.05 | 5/5 | $8,135 | $8,135 | 68% | 76% | +$2,415 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,080 (vs do-nothing +$2,740) |
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.30 | 5/5 | $8,250 | $8,250 | 68% | 76% | +$2,916 | -$1,950 | 7.6% | $-4,395 (vs do-nothing $-2,735) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.90 | 4/5 | $7,292 | $7,655 | 66% | 75% | +$2,008 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-8 (vs do-nothing +$1,652) |
| $365 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.80 | 5/5 | $7,350 | $7,350 | 64% | 74% | +$1,915 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,355 (vs do-nothing +$3,015) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.80 | 4/5 | $8,123 | $8,485 | 62% | 73% | +$2,047 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-648 (vs do-nothing +$1,012) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.25 | 4/5 | $8,500 | $8,862 | 61% | 73% | +$2,567 | -$2,180 | 8.5% | $-4,468 (vs do-nothing $-2,808) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.80 | 4/5 | $7,080 | $7,442 | 59% | 71% | +$1,618 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-448 (vs do-nothing +$1,212) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 3/5 | $7,235 | $7,959 | 56% | 70% | +$1,293 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,906 (vs do-nothing $-246) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.40 | 3/5 | $8,100 | $8,825 | 53% | 69% | +$2,066 | -$2,040 | 8.0% | $-4,171 (vs do-nothing $-2,511) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 4/5 | $8,220 | $8,582 | 53% | 68% | +$1,442 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,688 (vs do-nothing $-28) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.10 | 3/5 | $8,377 | $9,102 | 53% | 68% | +$1,641 | -$30 | 0.1% | $-2,161 (vs do-nothing $-501) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.30 | 3/5 | $9,208 | $9,932 | 49% | 67% | +$1,607 | -$420 | 1.6% | $-2,551 (vs do-nothing $-891) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.25 | 3/5 | $7,312 | $8,037 | 47% | 66% | +$1,085 | -$285 | 1.1% | $-2,416 (vs do-nothing $-756) |
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.70 | 3/5 | $10,177 | $10,902 | 46% | 65% | +$1,642 | -$750 | 2.9% | $-2,881 (vs do-nothing $-1,221) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $6.80 | 3/5 | $10,200 | $10,925 | 46% | 66% | +$2,227 | -$2,370 | 9.3% | $-4,501 (vs do-nothing $-2,841) |
| $347.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $16.05 | 2/5 | $7,408 | $8,495 | 43% | 64% | +$1,048 | -$730 | 2.9% | $-2,704 (vs do-nothing $-1,044) |
| $347.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $9.75 | 2/5 | $9,750 | $10,837 | 31% | 60% | +$1,162 | -$1,990 | 7.8% | $-3,964 (vs do-nothing $-2,304) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.