5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $366.19 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,883/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,054/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,925 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 4 × $362.50 | 72% | $7,847 | $2,969 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $375 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.6% | 92% | 16% | $340 | $1,700 | -$6,147 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $375 5.6% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.71 mid) = $340 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $375.71) 93% EV / mo +$1,082 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $659 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$2,587 Free roll-up +$10/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $395 @ 79% POP 74% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.28/sh now → $5.85 mid-life (likely $5.14–$9.01) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.17/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 246 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $378 (overshoots $3.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $366.19: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $375.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,912 (+$5,013 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.8% | 78% | 45% | $1,025 | $5,125 | -$2,722 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 2.8% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.13 mid) = $1,025 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $367.13) 82% EV / mo +$2,192 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,016 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,824 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $385 @ 84% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.06/sh now → $5.70 mid-life (likely $6.02–$9.54) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.65/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 976 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $368 (overshoots $3.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $366.19: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $367.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,912 (+$5,013 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-850, the opportunity cost of earning $5,125/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 4 × $362.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.1% | 72% | 43% | $1,569 | $7,847 | — | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 4 × $362.50 2.1% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $4.13 mid) = $1,569 credit for the 6d cycle → $7,847/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $362.50) 72% Breach risk 28% POP (stays ≤ $366.63) 81% EV / mo +$4,465 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.6] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo) · 97% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 93% without) · ~2.3 challenges expected · median CC cash $3,239 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 43% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$694 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 4 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $8.00/sh now → $5.66 mid-life (likely $6.55–$9.88) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.92/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$1.74/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,293 simulated challenges: the $362 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $366 (overshoots $3.13). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $362.50 is at/above CC-SS $366.19: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.98/sh (~25% of the $3.92 collected) or spot ≥ $366.63 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $362)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (4 × $362.50): -$0 + Conservative CC premium (1 × $397.50): +$170 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,742 (+$5,183 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-680, the opportunity cost of earning $7,847/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $355 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.0% | 51% | 99+% | $3,562 | $17,812 | +$9,966 | $2,033 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $355 0.0% ITM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $7.50 mid) = $3,562 credit for the 6d cycle → $17,812/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $355) 51% Breach risk 49% POP (stays ≤ $362.50) 72% EV / mo +$6,723 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$792 Free roll-up +$12/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $385 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $7.84/sh now → $5.54 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.12/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$1.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $355 is $11 below CC-SS $366.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.78/sh (~25% of the $7.12 collected) or spot ≥ $362.50 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $355)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $355): -$2,033 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,945 (+$2,980 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,883, the opportunity cost of earning $17,812/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 15 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$5,013 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,062
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $362.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.92 | 4/5 | $7,847 | $8,239 | 72% | 81% | +$4,465 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,649 (vs do-nothing $-587) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/5 | $8,308 | $8,308 | 68% | 76% | +$2,323 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,688 (vs do-nothing +$2,750) |
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.80 | 4/5 | $9,595 | $9,987 | 65% | 78% | +$4,816 | -$557 | 2.2% | $-2,299 (vs do-nothing $-1,237) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 4/5 | $7,477 | $7,869 | 65% | 75% | +$2,423 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,022 (vs do-nothing +$2,084) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 4/5 | $8,446 | $8,839 | 61% | 72% | +$2,098 | -$0 | 0.0% | $442 (vs do-nothing +$1,504) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.87 | 3/5 | $8,806 | $9,591 | 58% | 75% | +$3,860 | -$846 | 3.3% | $-2,418 (vs do-nothing $-1,356) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 5/5 | $8,738 | $8,738 | 58% | 70% | +$1,560 | -$0 | 0.0% | $818 (vs do-nothing +$1,880) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.85 | 3/5 | $8,201 | $8,986 | 55% | 71% | +$2,407 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-625 (vs do-nothing +$437) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 4/5 | $8,460 | $8,852 | 52% | 68% | +$1,367 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-578 (vs do-nothing +$484) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.95 | 3/5 | $8,964 | $9,749 | 52% | 70% | +$2,362 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,044 (vs do-nothing +$17) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.12 | 3/5 | $10,688 | $11,472 | 51% | 72% | +$4,034 | -$1,220 | 4.8% | $-2,791 (vs do-nothing $-1,730) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.33 | 3/5 | $9,918 | $10,703 | 48% | 68% | +$2,436 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,381 (vs do-nothing $-319) |
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 4/5 | $9,840 | $10,232 | 46% | 65% | +$1,193 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,658 (vs do-nothing $-596) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.70 | 3/5 | $10,872 | $11,656 | 45% | 66% | +$2,010 | -$146 | 0.6% | $-1,718 (vs do-nothing $-656) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.39 | 2/5 | $8,388 | $9,566 | 43% | 69% | +$2,578 | -$1,060 | 4.2% | $-2,462 (vs do-nothing $-1,400) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.