5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $366.19 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $14,365/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,054/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-6,925 | fortress legs from IBKR |
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
Each Friday gets its own recommended pick and full income ladder (safest strike per income rung, sized across your 5 contracts). The master ranks the two by E[net]/mo to pick one grand pick; both are shown here so you can choose the tenor that fits your roll cadence.
| Track | Expiry | Sell | Survival | Income/mo | E[net]/mo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEXT FRIDAY 🏆 | 17 Jul 2026 · 6d | 5 × $360 | 65% | $8,750 | $3,154 |
| Rung | Sell | Expiry | DTE | OTM | Survival | Touch odds | Per cycle | Income/mo | Δ vs pick | Cap give-up | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▸ | 🛡 safe yield | 5 × $375 | 17 Jul | 6d | 5.6% | 92% | 16% | $340 | $1,700 | -$7,050 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $375 5.6% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $0.71 mid) = $340 credit for the 6d cycle → $1,700/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $375) 92% Breach risk 8% POP (stays ≤ $375.71) 93% EV / mo +$1,082 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.7] median · 89% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~0.6 challenges expected · median CC cash $659 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 8% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,853 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 82% POP 79% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.20/sh now → $4.39 mid-life (likely $3.85–$6.75) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.68/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$3.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 246 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 5 of 6, at $378 (overshoots $3.28). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $375 is at/above CC-SS $366.19: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.17/sh (~25% of the $0.68 collected) or spot ≥ $375.71 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $375)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $375): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,912 (+$5,013 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-850, the opportunity cost of earning $1,700/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 33% normal | 5 × $365 | 17 Jul | 6d | 2.8% | 78% | 45% | $1,025 | $5,125 | -$3,625 | $0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $365 2.8% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $2.13 mid) = $1,025 credit for the 6d cycle → $5,125/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $365) 78% Breach risk 22% POP (stays ≤ $367.13) 82% EV / mo +$2,192 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.3 mo [0.1-0.8] median · 95% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 92% without) · ~2.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $2,016 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 33% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$1,109 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 31 Jul 2026) $400 @ 88% POP 86% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $6.04/sh now → $4.27 mid-life (likely $4.51–$7.15) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.22/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 976 simulated challenges: the $365 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $368 (overshoots $3.16). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ✓ $365 is at/above CC-SS $366.19: assignment is break-even or better.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.51/sh (~25% of the $2.05 collected) or spot ≥ $367.13 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $365)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $365): -$0 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-1,912 (+$5,013 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-850, the opportunity cost of earning $5,125/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 🎯 50% normal | 5 × $360 | 17 Jul | 6d | 1.4% | 65% | 53% | $1,750 | $8,750 | — | $1,345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $360 1.4% OTM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $3.60 mid) = $1,750 credit for the 6d cycle → $8,750/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $360) 65% Breach risk 35% POP (stays ≤ $363.60) 75% EV / mo +$2,776 📈 CAMPAIGN OUTLOOK (400 paths, sell-roll-repeat this rung for 9 mo) whole in 0.2 mo [0.1-0.5] median, 0.1 mo faster than no FIGHT (0.3 mo) · 96% of paths whole by 9 mo (vs 90% without) · ~3.2 challenges expected · median CC cash $1,750 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 53% Flat exit net (mid-life) -$355 Free roll-up +$17/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $392 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.95/sh now → $4.21 mid-life (likely $5.13–$7.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.50/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$0.71/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours 📊 Across 1,595 simulated challenges: the $360 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 6, at $363 (overshoots $3.03). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $360 is $6 below CC-SS $366.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $0.88/sh (~25% of the $3.50 collected) or spot ≥ $363.60 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $360)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $360): -$1,345 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-3,257 (+$3,668 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-2,195, the opportunity cost of earning $8,750/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ | 100% normal | 5 × $352.50 | 17 Jul | 6d | -0.7% | 43% | 99+% | $3,500 | $17,500 | +$8,750 | $3,345 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sell 5 × $352.50 0.7% ITM over spot $355.05 17 Jul 2026 (6d, $7.17 mid) = $3,500 credit for the 6d cycle → $17,500/mo projected Survival (stays ≤ $352.50) 43% Breach risk 57% POP (stays ≤ $359.68) 64% EV / mo +$2,973 🛡 IF CHALLENGED (spot reaches the strike) · challenge = the strike is touched at any point, so it runs ~2x the breach risk (finishing through it) Challenge odds (touch by expiry) 100% Flat exit net (mid-life) +$1,439 Free roll-up +$18/wk Safest escape (by 24 Jul 2026) $385 @ 90% POP 89% survival Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 6); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic Buyback gross: $5.83/sh now → $4.12 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $7.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets +$2.88/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
If rolled & exited = your total from-entry P&L if you roll to that strike and then close the whole fortress with the stock pinned there (all legs repriced; SAFE = P&L ≥ 0). Cap gain is what that roll earns THIS cycle (premium + appreciation from today to the new strike); the total adds your existing MTM on top. Same from-entry basis as this tool's @cap / total-exit numbers, at the rolled strike. POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP. Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened. More detail, income coverage, downside budget, tripwires, held-to-expiry ladder, V-bounce stressIncome coverage
Downside budget ⚠ $352.50 is $14 below CC-SS $366.19: assignment on a recovery to whole locks the cap give-up below.
Tripwiresprice and time left decide together; the matrix is the playbook The one rule: roll when the short call's remaining TIME VALUE < $1.75/sh (~25% of the $7.00 collected) or spot ≥ $359.68 (breakeven), whichever comes first. Time value = call mark price minus intrinsic (max(0, spot − $352)); NOT the premium you collected. Momentum override: two daily closes above $373.74 (daily upper band) or daily RSI > 70 → treat "pressing" as "through".
If held to expiryexact, settlement = intrinsic · fortress delta 0.90 (fallback)
V-BOUNCE STRESS (stock → CC-SS $366.19, where you are whole again, by expiry) Starting unrealized P&L: $-6,925 + Fortress recovery (un-capped): +$5,013 − CC assignment net of premium (5 × $352.50): -$3,345 Total Position P&L @ SS: $-5,257 (+$1,668 vs today) Do-nothing baseline at SS: $-1,062 (this trade vs do-nothing: $-4,195, the opportunity cost of earning $17,500/mo FIGHT income now) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 16 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$5,013 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,062
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $370 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 5/5 | $7,269 | $7,269 | 70% | 77% | +$2,108 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,238 (vs do-nothing +$2,300) |
| $367.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/5 | $8,308 | $8,308 | 68% | 76% | +$2,323 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,688 (vs do-nothing +$2,750) |
| $360 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 5/5 | $8,750 | $8,750 | 65% | 75% | +$2,776 | -$1,345 | 5.3% | $-3,257 (vs do-nothing $-2,195) |
| $365 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 4/5 | $7,477 | $7,869 | 65% | 74% | +$1,951 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,022 (vs do-nothing +$2,084) |
| $365 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 5/5 | $7,387 | $7,387 | 63% | 73% | +$1,654 | -$0 | 0.0% | $2,418 (vs do-nothing +$3,480) |
| $362.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 4/5 | $8,446 | $8,839 | 61% | 72% | +$2,098 | -$0 | 0.0% | $442 (vs do-nothing +$1,504) |
| $357.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 4/5 | $8,900 | $9,292 | 58% | 71% | +$2,304 | -$1,696 | 6.7% | $-3,438 (vs do-nothing $-2,376) |
| $360 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 5/5 | $8,738 | $8,738 | 58% | 70% | +$1,560 | -$0 | 0.0% | $818 (vs do-nothing +$1,880) |
| $357.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 3/5 | $7,754 | $8,539 | 55% | 69% | +$1,560 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-819 (vs do-nothing +$243) |
| $355 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 4/5 | $8,460 | $8,852 | 52% | 68% | +$1,367 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-578 (vs do-nothing +$484) |
| $355 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.50 | 3/5 | $8,654 | $9,439 | 52% | 68% | +$1,641 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,179 (vs do-nothing $-117) |
| $355 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 3/5 | $8,400 | $9,185 | 51% | 67% | +$1,746 | -$1,677 | 6.6% | $-3,249 (vs do-nothing $-2,187) |
| $352.50 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 3/5 | $9,485 | $10,269 | 48% | 66% | +$1,582 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,569 (vs do-nothing $-507) |
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $350 | 20d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 3/5 | $7,380 | $8,165 | 46% | 65% | +$894 | -$0 | 0.0% | $-1,509 (vs do-nothing $-447) |
| $350 | 13d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.95 | 3/5 | $10,350 | $11,135 | 45% | 65% | +$1,488 | -$372 | 1.5% | $-1,944 (vs do-nothing $-882) |
| $352.50 | 6d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 3/5 | $10,500 | $11,285 | 43% | 64% | +$1,784 | -$2,007 | 7.9% | $-3,579 (vs do-nothing $-2,517) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.