FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $353.06

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $366.27 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $353.06 UNDERWATER $44.94 (11.3% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $366.27 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$17,911/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,066/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-7,740	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,956/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$17,911/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
2.7 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $366.27 (probe: $367.5C 11d) still earns $9,818/mo (55% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

$4,961

was $7,740 · 36% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS ratchet

$370.26 → $366.27

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $366.27 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

71%

Touch odds

60%

Per cycle

$4,100

Income / mo

$6,833

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

82%

Touch odds

37%

Per cycle

$2,175

Income / mo

$5,932

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.92/sh now → $10.55 mid-life (likely $9.31–$15.33) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.20/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 646 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $382 (overshoots $4.23). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.92/sh	+$962 cycle +$3,137 [+$128…+$1,537] · 80% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$379	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.00/sh	+$502 cycle +$2,677 [-$393…+$1,025] · 58% credit	70% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$379	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.00/sh	+$502 cycle +$2,677 [-$393…+$1,025] · 58% credit	70% surv 54%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$389	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.20/sh	-$1,601 cycle +$574 [-$2,914…-$1,268] · 7% credit	77% surv 68%
budget: banked $2,175 debit $1,601 (74% used ≈ 1.2 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$574 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,187/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $390 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

91%

Touch odds

19%

Per cycle

$1,100

Income / mo

$3,000

Buyback gross: $15.41/sh now → $10.90 mid-life (likely $9.39–$14.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.70/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 211 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 8 of 11, at $394 (overshoots $4.19). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.52/sh	+$761 cycle +$1,861 [+$261…+$1,481] · 82% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$392	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.60/sh	+$299 cycle +$1,399 [-$265…+$946] · 66% credit	70% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$392	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.60/sh	+$299 cycle +$1,399 [-$265…+$946] · 66% credit	70% surv 54%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$397	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.82/sh	-$910 cycle +$190 [-$1,649…-$318] · 18% credit	73% surv 61%
budget: banked $1,100 debit $910 (83% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$190 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,349/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$5,941 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-987

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	5/5	$10,238	$10,238	81%	88%	+$7,584	-$518	2.0%	$-2,318 (vs do-nothing $-1,330)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	4/5	$10,500	$10,943	75%	84%	+$7,043	-$1,106	4.3%	$-2,743 (vs do-nothing $-1,756)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	5/5	$9,818	$9,818	71%	80%	+$4,528	-$0	0.0%	$1,801 (vs do-nothing +$2,788)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	5/5	$11,045	$11,045	68%	78%	+$4,809	-$0	0.0%	$1,617 (vs do-nothing +$2,605)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$10,012	$10,899	67%	81%	+$5,953	-$1,295	5.1%	$-2,769 (vs do-nothing $-1,782)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	4/5	$9,982	$10,425	65%	76%	+$4,133	-$0	0.0%	$517 (vs do-nothing +$1,504)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	5/5	$9,708	$9,708	60%	73%	+$2,949	-$0	0.0%	$892 (vs do-nothing +$1,880)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	3/5	$9,164	$10,050	59%	77%	+$4,710	-$0	0.0%	$-744 (vs do-nothing +$243)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/5	$12,600	$13,486	58%	77%	+$6,510	-$1,700	6.7%	$-3,174 (vs do-nothing $-2,187)
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	3/5	$10,227	$11,113	55%	75%	+$4,911	-$0	0.0%	$-1,104 (vs do-nothing $-117)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	4/5	$9,400	$9,843	54%	70%	+$2,587	-$0	0.0%	$-503 (vs do-nothing +$484)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	3/5	$11,209	$12,095	50%	74%	+$4,921	-$20	0.1%	$-1,494 (vs do-nothing $-507)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	2/5	$10,500	$11,829	48%	74%	+$4,668	-$1,353	5.3%	$-2,665 (vs do-nothing $-1,678)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	4/5	$10,933	$11,376	48%	68%	+$2,478	-$0	0.0%	$-1,583 (vs do-nothing $-596)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	3/5	$12,232	$13,118	46%	72%	+$4,863	-$395	1.5%	$-1,869 (vs do-nothing $-882)
$347.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$16.50	2/5	$9,000	$10,329	41%	71%	+$3,294	-$453	1.8%	$-1,765 (vs do-nothing $-778)
$347.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$10.15	2/5	$15,225	$16,554	31%	68%	+$4,604	-$1,723	6.8%	$-3,035 (vs do-nothing $-2,048)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:27