FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $352.42

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $365.64 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $352.42 UNDERWATER $45.58 (11.5% below BE SS)

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $365.64 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$18,682/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,066/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-7,740	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$9,341/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$18,682/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.4 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
2.6 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $365.64 (probe: $365C 11d) still earns $11,045/mo (59% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

$4,961

was $7,740 · 36% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS ratchet

$369.62 → $365.64

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $365.64 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $370 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

72%

Touch odds

59%

Per cycle

$4,100

Income / mo

$6,833

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $375 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $375)

80%

Touch odds

41%

Per cycle

$2,475

Income / mo

$6,750

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $15.38/sh now → $10.87 mid-life (likely $10.91–$16.60) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.95/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.92/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 979 simulated challenges: the $375 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $380 (overshoots $5.10). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$375	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.85/sh	+$926 cycle +$3,401 [+$179…+$1,283] · 84% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.62/sh	+$311 cycle +$2,786 [-$523…+$600] · 46% credit	71% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$378	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.62/sh	+$311 cycle +$2,786 [-$523…+$600] · 46% credit	71% surv 55%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$388	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.57/sh	-$1,786 cycle +$689 [-$3,016…-$1,741] · 3% credit	78% surv 69%
budget: banked $2,475 debit $1,786 (72% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$689 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $9,129/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $387.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $387.50)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,330

Income / mo

$3,627

Buyback gross: $15.89/sh now → $11.24 mid-life (likely $9.70–$15.79) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.66/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.58/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 469 simulated challenges: the $388 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $393 (overshoots $5.32). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$388	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.44/sh	+$720 cycle +$2,050 [+$291…+$1,669] · 86% credit	69% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$104 cycle +$1,434 [-$467…+$947] · 56% credit	71% surv 55%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.21/sh	+$104 cycle +$1,434 [-$467…+$947] · 56% credit	71% surv 55%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$395	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$2.21/sh	-$1,103 cycle +$227 [-$1,912…-$418] · 16% credit	74% surv 62%
budget: banked $1,330 debit $1,103 (83% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$227 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,289/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (17 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 17 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$5,951 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-977

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	5/5	$10,238	$10,238	83%	89%	+$7,934	-$207	0.8%	$-1,996 (vs do-nothing $-1,020)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	4/5	$10,500	$10,943	77%	86%	+$7,458	-$858	3.4%	$-2,484 (vs do-nothing $-1,508)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	5/5	$9,818	$9,818	72%	80%	+$4,771	-$0	0.0%	$1,811 (vs do-nothing +$2,788)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	5/5	$11,045	$11,045	69%	79%	+$5,083	-$0	0.0%	$1,939 (vs do-nothing +$2,915)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$10,012	$10,899	69%	82%	+$6,393	-$1,108	4.3%	$-2,572 (vs do-nothing $-1,596)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	4/5	$9,982	$10,425	66%	77%	+$4,379	-$0	0.0%	$776 (vs do-nothing +$1,752)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	5/5	$9,708	$9,708	61%	74%	+$3,171	-$0	0.0%	$1,214 (vs do-nothing +$2,190)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/5	$12,600	$13,486	60%	79%	+$7,099	-$1,513	5.9%	$-2,977 (vs do-nothing $-2,001)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	4/5	$12,218	$12,661	59%	74%	+$4,626	-$0	0.0%	$-404 (vs do-nothing +$572)
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	3/5	$10,227	$11,113	55%	72%	+$3,659	-$0	0.0%	$-907 (vs do-nothing +$69)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	4/5	$9,400	$9,843	55%	71%	+$2,794	-$0	0.0%	$-244 (vs do-nothing +$732)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	3/5	$11,209	$12,095	52%	71%	+$3,677	-$0	0.0%	$-1,297 (vs do-nothing $-321)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	2/5	$10,500	$11,829	51%	76%	+$5,167	-$1,229	4.8%	$-2,530 (vs do-nothing $-1,554)

Show 4 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	4/5	$10,933	$11,376	49%	69%	+$2,717	-$0	0.0%	$-1,324 (vs do-nothing $-348)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	3/5	$12,232	$13,118	48%	69%	+$3,646	-$208	0.8%	$-1,672 (vs do-nothing $-696)
$347.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$16.50	3/5	$13,500	$14,386	44%	68%	+$3,771	-$493	1.9%	$-1,957 (vs do-nothing $-981)
$347.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$10.15	2/5	$15,225	$16,554	33%	70%	+$5,302	-$1,599	6.3%	$-2,900 (vs do-nothing $-1,924)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 13:38