FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $355.80

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $368.89 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $355.80 UNDERWATER $42.20 (10.6% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (11d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $368.89 | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$15,955/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,066/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-7,740	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,977/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$15,955/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $368.89 (probe: $370C 11d) still earns $8,591/mo (54% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole, so CC-SS ratchets down (seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

$4,961

was $7,740 · 36% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS ratchet

$373.00 → $368.89

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 50 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.83 (+16%) · daily UBB $373.77 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $368.89 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $372.50 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $372.50)

71%

Touch odds

61%

Per cycle

$3,577

Income / mo

$5,961

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $380 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $380)

81%

Touch odds

38%

Per cycle

$1,875

Income / mo

$5,114

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $13.40/sh now → $9.48 mid-life (likely $9.07–$13.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $385 (overshoots $4.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$380	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.84/sh	+$920 cycle +$2,795 [+$393…+$1,424] · 94% credit	67% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$382	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.82/sh	+$409 cycle +$2,284 [-$195…+$826] · 62% credit	68% surv 54%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$382	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.82/sh	+$409 cycle +$2,284 [-$195…+$826] · 62% credit	68% surv 54%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$394	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.50/sh	-$1,750 cycle +$125 [-$2,723…-$1,597] · 1% credit	78% surv 71%
budget: banked $1,875 debit $1,750 (93% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,474/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $370 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $370)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$605

Income / mo

$4,537

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $5.60/sh now → $3.96 mid-life (likely $3.55–$6.38) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.21/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$2.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 349 simulated challenges: the $370 strike is typically first touched on day 3 of 4, at $373 (overshoots $2.84). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$370	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$7.00/sh	+$3,500 cycle +$4,105 [+$3,189…+$3,684] · 100% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$389	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$1.83/sh	+$917 cycle +$1,522 [+$168…+$1,084] · 78% credit	79% surv 74%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$394	31 Jul 2026	16d left	+$0.76/sh	+$382 cycle +$987 [-$451…+$535] · 57% credit	82% surv 79%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$389	24 Jul 2026	9d left	+$0.01/sh	+$6 cycle +$611 [-$863…+$69] · 28% credit	83% surv 78%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$404	31 Jul 2026	16d left	-$1.02/sh	-$512 cycle +$93 [-$1,476…-$370] · 7% credit	88% surv 86%
budget: banked $605 debit $512 (85% used ≈ 0.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$93 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $2,751/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$5,891 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $-1,037

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	4/5	$8,190	$8,633	74%	81%	+$4,487	-$1,464	5.7%	$-3,151 (vs do-nothing $-2,114)
$370	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	5/5	$8,591	$8,591	71%	78%	+$3,138	-$0	0.0%	$1,301 (vs do-nothing +$2,338)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	5/5	$9,818	$9,818	68%	77%	+$3,406	-$0	0.0%	$1,055 (vs do-nothing +$2,093)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	4/5	$10,500	$10,943	66%	77%	+$4,791	-$2,156	8.5%	$-3,843 (vs do-nothing $-2,806)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	4/5	$8,836	$9,279	64%	75%	+$2,837	-$0	0.0%	$-3 (vs do-nothing +$1,034)
$365	18d	31 Jul 2026	$9.85	5/5	$8,208	$8,208	63%	73%	+$2,081	-$0	0.0%	$1,130 (vs do-nothing +$2,168)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	4/5	$9,982	$10,425	61%	73%	+$3,006	-$0	0.0%	$-583 (vs do-nothing +$454)
$362.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.45	5/5	$8,708	$8,708	60%	72%	+$1,803	-$0	0.0%	$180 (vs do-nothing +$1,218)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$10,012	$10,899	57%	73%	+$3,662	-$2,082	8.2%	$-3,607 (vs do-nothing $-2,569)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	5/5	$9,708	$9,708	57%	70%	+$1,952	-$0	0.0%	$-470 (vs do-nothing +$568)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	3/5	$9,164	$10,050	54%	70%	+$2,211	-$57	0.2%	$-1,582 (vs do-nothing $-544)
$357.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.54	4/5	$8,360	$8,803	54%	69%	+$1,417	-$0	0.0%	$-1,227 (vs do-nothing $-190)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	4/5	$9,400	$9,843	51%	67%	+$1,662	-$0	0.0%	$-1,603 (vs do-nothing $-566)

Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	3/5	$10,227	$11,113	50%	68%	+$2,282	-$417	1.6%	$-1,942 (vs do-nothing $-904)
$352.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.87	4/5	$9,912	$10,355	48%	66%	+$1,317	-$609	2.4%	$-2,296 (vs do-nothing $-1,259)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	2/5	$8,400	$9,729	48%	68%	+$2,371	-$1,658	6.5%	$-3,020 (vs do-nothing $-1,983)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	3/5	$11,209	$12,095	47%	66%	+$2,182	-$807	3.2%	$-2,332 (vs do-nothing $-1,294)
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	3/5	$8,200	$9,086	45%	65%	+$1,067	-$747	2.9%	$-2,272 (vs do-nothing $-1,234)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	2/5	$8,155	$9,484	43%	65%	+$1,356	-$788	3.1%	$-2,150 (vs do-nothing $-1,113)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	2/5	$10,500	$11,829	38%	65%	+$2,251	-$1,878	7.4%	$-3,240 (vs do-nothing $-2,203)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 16:21