GOOG-LC340 @ $355.80 UNDERWATER $42.20 (10.6% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (11d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.
5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $375.56 (banked floor $368.89) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)
SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)
HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $15,955/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,066/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,740 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,977/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$15,955/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.6 mo to earn back $25,500
ML VELOCITY
3.0 mo to earn back $48,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $375.56 (probe: $375C 11d) still earns $6,750/mo (42% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$2,779
Hole (after banked)
$4,961
was $7,740 · 36% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$375.56 → $368.89
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 60 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYMIXED (provisional) · RSI 45 · %B 50 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.83 (+16%) · daily UBB $373.77 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $375.56 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $380 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $380)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.40/sh now → $9.48 mid-life (likely $9.07–$13.82) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.75/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$5.73/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 864 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $385 (overshoots $4.88). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$380 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.84/sh | +$920 cycle +$2,795 [+$393…+$1,424] · 94% credit | 67% surv 51% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$382 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.82/sh | +$409 cycle +$2,284 [-$195…+$826] · 62% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$382 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$0.82/sh | +$409 cycle +$2,284 [-$195…+$826] · 62% credit | 68% surv 54% |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$394 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$3.50/sh | -$1,750 cycle +$125 [-$2,723…-$1,597] · 1% credit | 78% surv 71% |
| budget: banked $1,875 debit $1,750 (93% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$125 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,474/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $400 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $400)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.22/sh now → $11.47 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.22/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.25/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $435 17 Jul 2026 (4d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $435)
100%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 2 of 4); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $6.58/sh now → $4.65 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $0.01/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.64/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$435 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$6.04/sh | +$3,018 cycle +$3,023 | 68% surv 51% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$449 | 24 Jul 2026 | 9d left | +$0.31/sh | +$157 cycle +$162 | 79% surv 73% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$454 | 31 Jul 2026 | 16d left | +$0.68/sh | +$338 cycle +$343 | 80% surv 75% |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (20 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 20 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.900 (fallback) | Recovery@SS: +$8,893 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,965
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $362.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.73 | 4/5 | $8,190 | $8,633 | 74% | 81% | +$4,487 | -$4,132 | 16.2% | $-2,817 (vs do-nothing $-4,782) |
| $370 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.30 | 5/5 | $8,591 | $8,591 | 71% | 78% | +$3,138 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,522 (vs do-nothing $-443) |
| $367.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 5/5 | $9,818 | $9,818 | 68% | 77% | +$3,406 | -$431 | 1.7% | $722 (vs do-nothing $-1,243) |
| $360 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.50 | 4/5 | $10,500 | $10,943 | 66% | 77% | +$4,791 | -$4,824 | 18.9% | $-3,509 (vs do-nothing $-5,474) |
| $365 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.10 | 4/5 | $8,836 | $9,279 | 64% | 75% | +$2,837 | -$984 | 3.9% | $331 (vs do-nothing $-1,634) |
| $365 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.85 | 5/5 | $8,208 | $8,208 | 63% | 73% | +$2,081 | -$356 | 1.4% | $797 (vs do-nothing $-1,168) |
| $362.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $9.15 | 4/5 | $9,982 | $10,425 | 61% | 73% | +$3,006 | -$1,564 | 6.1% | $-249 (vs do-nothing $-2,214) |
| $362.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.45 | 5/5 | $8,708 | $8,708 | 60% | 72% | +$1,803 | -$1,306 | 5.1% | $-153 (vs do-nothing $-2,118) |
| $357.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.45 | 3/5 | $10,012 | $10,899 | 57% | 73% | +$3,662 | -$4,083 | 16.0% | $-2,606 (vs do-nothing $-4,571) |
| $360 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 5/5 | $9,708 | $9,708 | 57% | 70% | +$1,952 | -$1,956 | 7.7% | $-803 (vs do-nothing $-2,768) |
| $357.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.20 | 3/5 | $9,164 | $10,050 | 54% | 70% | +$2,211 | -$2,058 | 8.1% | $-581 (vs do-nothing $-2,546) |
| $357.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.54 | 4/5 | $8,360 | $8,803 | 54% | 69% | +$1,417 | -$2,208 | 8.7% | $-893 (vs do-nothing $-2,858) |
| $355 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.10 | 4/5 | $9,400 | $9,843 | 51% | 67% | +$1,662 | -$2,584 | 10.1% | $-1,269 (vs do-nothing $-3,234) |
Show 7 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $355 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.50 | 3/5 | $10,227 | $11,113 | 50% | 68% | +$2,282 | -$2,418 | 9.5% | $-941 (vs do-nothing $-2,906) |
| $352.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $14.87 | 4/5 | $9,912 | $10,355 | 48% | 66% | +$1,317 | -$3,277 | 12.9% | $-1,962 (vs do-nothing $-3,927) |
| $355 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 2/5 | $8,400 | $9,729 | 48% | 68% | +$2,371 | -$2,992 | 11.7% | $-1,352 (vs do-nothing $-3,317) |
| $352.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 3/5 | $11,209 | $12,095 | 47% | 66% | +$2,182 | -$2,808 | 11.0% | $-1,331 (vs do-nothing $-3,296) |
| $350 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.40 | 3/5 | $8,200 | $9,086 | 45% | 65% | +$1,067 | -$2,748 | 10.8% | $-1,271 (vs do-nothing $-3,236) |
| $350 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $14.95 | 2/5 | $8,155 | $9,484 | 43% | 65% | +$1,356 | -$2,122 | 8.3% | $-482 (vs do-nothing $-2,447) |
| $352.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $7.00 | 2/5 | $10,500 | $11,829 | 38% | 65% | +$2,251 | -$3,212 | 12.6% | $-1,572 (vs do-nothing $-3,537) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.