FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $353.81

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.51 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $353.81 UNDERWATER $44.19 (11.1% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (11d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.51 (banked floor $366.87) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$17,045/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,066/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-7,740	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$8,523/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$17,045/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.5 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
2.8 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $373.51 (probe: $372.5C 11d) still earns $7,841/mo (46% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,779

Hole (after banked)

$4,961

was $7,740 · 36% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$1,598

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$373.51 → $366.87

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
5x $400C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$3.20	$1,598	2026-07-07

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 58 (live) · RSI 56 · MACD bearish, hist falling

DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 45 · hist falling (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $413.83 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.69 · 1-wk expected move ±$21 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $373.51 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $375 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $375)

75%

Touch odds

52%

Per cycle

$3,250

Income / mo

$5,417

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $377.50 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $377.50)

81%

Touch odds

39%

Per cycle

$2,175

Income / mo

$5,932

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $14.63/sh now → $10.35 mid-life (likely $10.04–$15.36) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $4.35/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.00/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 940 simulated challenges: the $378 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $382 (overshoots $4.90). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$378	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.69/sh	+$847 cycle +$3,022 [+$188…+$1,294] · 86% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$379	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.28/sh	+$640 cycle +$2,815 [-$23…+$1,037] · 72% credit	69% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$379	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.28/sh	+$640 cycle +$2,815 [-$23…+$1,037] · 72% credit	69% surv 53%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$391	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$3.98/sh	-$1,989 cycle +$186 [-$3,166…-$1,885] · 2% credit	78% surv 70%
budget: banked $2,175 debit $1,989 (91% used ≈ 1.5 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$186 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $7,960/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $390 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

90%

Touch odds

20%

Per cycle

$1,100

Income / mo

$3,000

Buyback gross: $15.12/sh now → $10.69 mid-life (likely $9.37–$15.25) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.20/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$8.49/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 424 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 7 of 11, at $395 (overshoots $5.24). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$1.30/sh	+$651 cycle +$1,751 [+$252…+$1,400] · 87% credit	68% surv 51%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$391	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.89/sh	+$443 cycle +$1,543 [+$15…+$1,152] · 76% credit	69% surv 53%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$391	31 Jul 2026	12d left	+$0.89/sh	+$443 cycle +$1,543 [+$15…+$1,152] · 76% credit	69% surv 53%
SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$396	31 Jul 2026	12d left	-$1.54/sh	-$770 cycle +$330 [-$1,434…-$169] · 20% credit	72% surv 60%
budget: banked $1,100 debit $770 (70% used ≈ 1.1 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$330 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $11,437/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (22 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 22 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.813 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$8,010 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $1,082

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$362.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$2.73	5/5	$10,238	$10,238	80%	86%	+$7,128	-$4,142	16.2%	$-3,872 (vs do-nothing $-4,954)
$370	11d	24 Jul 2026	$6.30	5/5	$8,591	$8,591	73%	80%	+$3,874	-$0	0.0%	$1,663 (vs do-nothing +$581)
$360	4d	17 Jul 2026	$3.50	4/5	$10,500	$10,943	72%	82%	+$6,510	-$4,006	15.7%	$-3,573 (vs do-nothing $-4,656)
$367.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$7.20	5/5	$9,818	$9,818	70%	79%	+$4,238	-$0	0.0%	$863 (vs do-nothing $-219)
$365	11d	24 Jul 2026	$8.10	4/5	$8,836	$9,279	67%	77%	+$3,585	-$166	0.6%	$267 (vs do-nothing $-816)
$357.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$4.45	3/5	$10,012	$10,899	64%	79%	+$5,399	-$3,469	13.6%	$-2,875 (vs do-nothing $-3,957)
$362.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$9.15	4/5	$9,982	$10,425	64%	75%	+$3,839	-$746	2.9%	$-313 (vs do-nothing $-1,396)
$362.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$10.45	5/5	$8,708	$8,708	62%	74%	+$2,480	-$282	1.1%	$-12 (vs do-nothing $-1,094)
$360	18d	31 Jul 2026	$11.65	5/5	$9,708	$9,708	59%	72%	+$2,686	-$932	3.7%	$-662 (vs do-nothing $-1,744)
$357.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$11.20	3/5	$9,164	$10,050	57%	72%	+$2,971	-$1,444	5.7%	$-850 (vs do-nothing $-1,932)
$357.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$12.54	5/5	$10,450	$10,450	56%	71%	+$2,563	-$1,737	6.8%	$-1,467 (vs do-nothing $-2,549)
$355	4d	17 Jul 2026	$5.60	3/5	$12,600	$13,486	55%	75%	+$5,779	-$3,874	15.2%	$-3,280 (vs do-nothing $-4,362)
$355	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.10	4/5	$9,400	$9,843	53%	70%	+$2,342	-$1,766	6.9%	$-1,333 (vs do-nothing $-2,416)

Show 9 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$355	11d	24 Jul 2026	$12.50	3/5	$10,227	$11,113	53%	71%	+$3,112	-$1,804	7.1%	$-1,210 (vs do-nothing $-2,292)
$352.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$14.87	4/5	$9,912	$10,355	50%	68%	+$2,044	-$2,459	9.6%	$-2,026 (vs do-nothing $-3,109)
$352.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$13.70	3/5	$11,209	$12,095	50%	69%	+$3,081	-$2,194	8.6%	$-1,600 (vs do-nothing $-2,682)
$350	18d	31 Jul 2026	$16.40	4/5	$10,933	$11,376	47%	67%	+$2,198	-$2,846	11.2%	$-2,413 (vs do-nothing $-3,496)
$350	11d	24 Jul 2026	$14.95	3/5	$12,232	$13,118	46%	68%	+$3,002	-$2,569	10.1%	$-1,975 (vs do-nothing $-3,057)
$352.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$7.00	2/5	$10,500	$11,829	46%	71%	+$4,058	-$2,803	11.0%	$-2,046 (vs do-nothing $-3,128)
$347.50	18d	31 Jul 2026	$17.41	3/5	$8,707	$9,593	44%	66%	+$1,459	-$2,580	10.1%	$-1,986 (vs do-nothing $-3,068)
$347.50	11d	24 Jul 2026	$16.50	2/5	$9,000	$10,329	42%	67%	+$2,052	-$1,903	7.5%	$-1,146 (vs do-nothing $-2,228)
$347.50	4d	17 Jul 2026	$10.15	2/5	$15,225	$16,554	28%	66%	+$3,770	-$3,173	12.4%	$-2,416 (vs do-nothing $-3,498)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-13 19:31