GOOG-LC340 @ $353.94 UNDERWATER $44.06 (11.1% below BE SS)
⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT
GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 10 days. The recommended CC (11d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.
5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.20 (banked floor $366.54) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865
LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)
SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)
HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)
Economics
| Max Loss | $48,000 | (ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500 |
| Normal income ref | $15,205/mo | 75% ann ROI on ML |
| Hedge (static, never rolled) | $0/mo | HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $2,111/mo (info only, already in marks) |
| Unrealized P&L | $-7,550 | fortress legs from IBKR |
INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY
50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,602/mo
HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)
NORMAL INCOME
$15,205/mo (ATM CC, chain)
IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $25,500
ML VELOCITY
3.2 mo to earn back $48,000
NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $373.20 (probe: $372.5C 11d) still earns $6,818/mo (45% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.
🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)
Banked since 2026-07-07
$2,779
Hole (after banked)
$4,771
was $7,550 · 37% earned back
CC-SS · banked floor (info)
$373.20 → $366.54
| Open leg | Acct | Credit/sh | In flight | Opened |
|---|
| 5x $400C 31 Jul 2026 | U13190865 | $3.20 | $1,598 | 2026-07-07 |
TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)
WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 57 (live) · RSI 55 · MACD bearish, hist falling
DAILYFALLING (provisional) · RSI 43 · %B 46 · hist falling (nightly)
LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $414.68 (+17%) · daily UBB $373.45 · 1-wk expected move ±$22 (chain IV)
SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)
⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.
NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $373.20 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.
💰 Richer · sell 5 × $375 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $375)
74%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $15.34/sh now → $10.85 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $6.00/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.85/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $380 24 Jul 2026 (11d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $380)
81%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 5 of 11); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $13.56/sh now → $9.59 mid-life (likely $9.51–$14.07) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $3.40/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$6.19/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
📊 Across 887 simulated challenges: the $380 strike is typically first touched on day 6 of 11, at $385 (overshoots $5.49). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
| Roll out (same strike, buy time) | ~$380 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.49/sh | +$745 cycle +$2,445 [+$223…+$1,231] · 88% credit | 66% surv 51% |
| Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free) | ~$381 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.14/sh | +$569 cycle +$2,269 [+$34…+$1,005] · 77% credit | 67% surv 53% |
| Max even-money escape in the band | ~$381 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | +$1.14/sh | +$569 cycle +$2,269 [+$34…+$1,005] · 77% credit | 67% surv 53% |
| SS $398 not reachable for even money within 45d; this is the ceiling of the free ladder |
| Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP) | ~$391 | 31 Jul 2026 | 12d left | -$2.81/sh | -$1,407 cycle +$293 [-$2,316…-$1,242] · 6% credit | 74% surv 66% |
| budget: banked $1,700 debit $1,407 (83% used ≈ 1.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$293 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $8,469/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell |
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $400 31 Jul 2026 (18d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾
Survival (stays ≤ $400)
90%
Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 9 of 18); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic
Buyback gross: $16.37/sh now → $11.57 mid-life → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $1.82/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.75/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours
| Move | New strike ≈ | New expiry | Tenor | Est net | Total (5 ct) | POP / surv
of new CC |
|---|
POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.
Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.
⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (21 clear the floor), click to expand
Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (3 expiries scanned, 21 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.
Fortress delta: 0.808 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$7,782 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $862
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $370 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $5.60 | 5/5 | $7,636 | $7,636 | 71% | 77% | +$1,584 | -$0 | 0.0% | $1,433 (vs do-nothing +$572) |
| $360 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $2.56 | 4/5 | $7,680 | $8,024 | 69% | 76% | +$1,941 | -$4,255 | 16.7% | $-3,897 (vs do-nothing $-4,759) |
| $367.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $6.45 | 5/5 | $8,795 | $8,795 | 68% | 76% | +$1,835 | -$0 | 0.0% | $608 (vs do-nothing $-253) |
| $365 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $7.20 | 4/5 | $7,855 | $8,198 | 66% | 74% | +$1,473 | -$399 | 1.6% | $-41 (vs do-nothing $-903) |
| $362.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $8.20 | 4/5 | $8,945 | $9,289 | 63% | 72% | +$1,703 | -$999 | 3.9% | $-641 (vs do-nothing $-1,503) |
| $357.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $3.35 | 4/5 | $10,050 | $10,394 | 62% | 72% | +$1,921 | -$4,939 | 19.4% | $-4,581 (vs do-nothing $-5,443) |
| $362.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $9.55 | 5/5 | $7,958 | $7,958 | 62% | 72% | +$1,227 | -$573 | 2.2% | $-342 (vs do-nothing $-1,203) |
| $360 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $10.40 | 5/5 | $8,667 | $8,667 | 59% | 70% | +$1,129 | -$1,398 | 5.5% | $-1,167 (vs do-nothing $-2,028) |
| $357.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $10.10 | 3/5 | $8,264 | $8,951 | 56% | 69% | +$1,191 | -$1,679 | 6.6% | $-1,195 (vs do-nothing $-2,057) |
| $357.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $11.65 | 4/5 | $7,767 | $8,110 | 56% | 69% | +$1,041 | -$1,619 | 6.3% | $-1,261 (vs do-nothing $-2,123) |
| $355 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $4.40 | 3/5 | $9,900 | $10,587 | 54% | 68% | +$1,497 | -$4,139 | 16.2% | $-3,655 (vs do-nothing $-4,517) |
| $355 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $12.95 | 4/5 | $8,633 | $8,977 | 53% | 68% | +$1,155 | -$2,099 | 8.2% | $-1,741 (vs do-nothing $-2,603) |
| $355 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $11.15 | 3/5 | $9,123 | $9,810 | 53% | 68% | +$1,143 | -$2,114 | 8.3% | $-1,630 (vs do-nothing $-2,492) |
Show 8 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)
| Strike | DTE | Expiry | Bid | Sell | Income/mo | Net/mo | Survival | POP (mid) | EV/mo | Cap Give-up @ CC-SS | %IC | Total P&L @ SS |
|---|
| $352.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $13.70 | 4/5 | $9,133 | $9,477 | 50% | 66% | +$845 | -$2,799 | 11.0% | $-2,441 (vs do-nothing $-3,303) |
| $352.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $12.35 | 3/5 | $10,105 | $10,792 | 50% | 66% | +$1,150 | -$2,504 | 9.8% | $-2,020 (vs do-nothing $-2,882) |
| $350 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $15.45 | 3/5 | $7,725 | $8,412 | 47% | 65% | +$858 | -$2,324 | 9.1% | $-1,840 (vs do-nothing $-2,702) |
| $350 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $13.65 | 3/5 | $11,168 | $11,855 | 46% | 65% | +$1,130 | -$2,864 | 11.2% | $-2,380 (vs do-nothing $-3,242) |
| $352.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $5.50 | 2/5 | $8,250 | $9,281 | 46% | 64% | +$748 | -$3,039 | 11.9% | $-2,430 (vs do-nothing $-3,291) |
| $347.50 | 18d | 31 Jul 2026 | $16.65 | 3/5 | $8,325 | $9,012 | 44% | 64% | +$763 | -$2,714 | 10.6% | $-2,230 (vs do-nothing $-3,092) |
| $347.50 | 11d | 24 Jul 2026 | $15.05 | 2/5 | $8,209 | $9,240 | 43% | 63% | +$708 | -$2,129 | 8.4% | $-1,520 (vs do-nothing $-2,381) |
| $347.50 | 4d | 17 Jul 2026 | $8.50 | 2/5 | $12,750 | $13,781 | 31% | 58% | +$383 | -$3,439 | 13.5% | $-2,830 (vs do-nothing $-3,691) |
Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.