FORTRESS FIGHT: GOOG-LC340 @ $370.60

BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.54 | 5 contracts (500 sh) | ⌂ PORTFOLIO

GOOG-LC340 @ $370.60 UNDERWATER $27.40 (6.9% below BE SS)

⚠ EARNINGS · DO NOT SELL INCOME INTO IT

GOOG reports 2026-07-23 (Thu), in 6 days. The recommended CC (7d) expires on/after it, so selling now holds a short call through the earnings gap, a report can blow past your strike overnight and cap you at a loss. Wait for the print, or sell only an expiry that closes BEFORE 2026-07-23.

5 contracts (500 sh) | BE SS: $398.00 | CC-SS: $373.54 (banked floor $366.39) | IV: MEDIUM | Accounts: Neville:0865

LC: $340 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $76.240/sh)

SP: $405 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $67.181/sh)

HP: $360 exp 2027-06-17 (entry $41.954/sh)

Economics

Max Loss	$48,000	(ND $51.00 + SW $45) x 500
Normal income ref	$14,679/mo	75% ann ROI on ML
Hedge (static, never rolled)	$0/mo	HP expiry = SP LEAPS; decay ≈ $1,764/mo (info only, already in marks)
Unrealized P&L	$-913	fortress legs from IBKR

INCOME GOALPOSTS & VELOCITY

50% INCOME FLOOR
$7,339/mo

HEDGE COVER
$0/mo (static)

NORMAL INCOME
$14,679/mo (ATM CC, chain)

IC VELOCITY
1.7 mo to earn back $25,500

ML VELOCITY
3.3 mo to earn back $48,000

NOT a deep drawdown: a CC at CC-SS $373.54 (probe: $372.5C 14d) still earns $14,089/mo (96% of normal). Sell the normal CC at/above CC-SS; a FIGHT CC below it is not needed here.

🏦 CAMPAIGN LEDGER , realized CC income since 2026-07-07; banked cash shrinks the hole (shown as an info-only banked floor, the recommended CC-SS stays the pure recovery strike; seeded from open positions, reconciled from IBKR executions nightly)

Banked since 2026-07-07

$2,989

Hole (after banked)

was $913 · 328% earned back

Cycles closed

Credit in flight

$22,520

CC-SS · banked floor (info)

$373.54 → $366.39

? 2 leg(s) closed as UNKNOWN (vanished with no fill in window): banked $0, conservative. Fix campaign.json by hand if wrong.

Open leg	Acct	Credit/sh	In flight	Opened
15x $370C 31 Jul 2026	U13190865	$15.01	$22,520	2026-07-17

TECHNICALS (cc_timing weekly gate + daily trigger)

WEEKLYNEUTRAL · %B 68 (live) · RSI 60 · MACD bearish, hist rising

DAILYRISING (provisional) · RSI 56 · %B 88 · hist rising (nightly)

LEVELSUpper BB (CC ceiling) $416.39 (+12%) · daily UBB $375.47 · 1-wk expected move ±$20 (chain IV)

SETUPNo tilt: engine default. (advisory; floors and picks are chain-only)

⚠ Next earnings 2026-07-23: candidates whose expiry crosses it are flagged in the spectrum; EV is unreliable across earnings.

NOT a deep drawdown. A CC at/above CC-SS $373.54 keeps this fortress whole if assigned, so there is no need to FIGHT below it. Three income options to consider, richer → safer, all at/above CC-SS. Click a card for its if-challenged roll menu.

💰 Richer · sell 5 × $375 28 Aug 2026 (42d) · more income, lower survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $375)

56%

Touch odds

92%

Per cycle

$8,650

Income / mo

$6,179

🎯 Recommended · sell 5 × $390 24 Jul 2026 (7d) · richest strike still ≥80% survivalroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $390)

83%

Touch odds

34%

Per cycle

$2,525

Income / mo

$10,821

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 3 of 7); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $12.94/sh now → $9.15 mid-life (likely $9.11–$14.45) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $5.05/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$4.10/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 797 simulated challenges: the $390 strike is typically first touched on day 4 of 7, at $395 (overshoots $4.70). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$390	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$3.05/sh	+$1,523 cycle +$4,048 [+$533…+$1,747] · 87% credit	68% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$404	28 Aug 2026	38d left	+$3.09/sh	+$1,543 cycle +$4,068 [+$83…+$1,831] · 76% credit	74% surv 65%
Up-and-out for even (raise the cap, free)	~$394	31 Jul 2026	10d left	+$0.91/sh	+$456 cycle +$2,981 [-$448…+$719] · 53% credit	73% surv 58%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$409	21 Aug 2026	32d left	+$0.04/sh	+$20 cycle +$2,545 [-$1,670…+$243] · 31% credit	76% surv 69%
reaches SS ✓
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$434	28 Aug 2026	38d left	-$4.61/sh	-$2,306 cycle +$219 [-$4,449…-$2,196] · 2% credit	87% surv 84%
budget: banked $2,525 debit $2,306 (91% used ≈ 0.9 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$219 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $1,793/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell · clears SS ✓

POP = P(stays ≤ strike + premium collected, the call is profitable); surv = P(stays ≤ strike, the call expires fully worthless). Survival is the stricter bar (no premium cushion), so it sits below POP.

Method: each leg = its live quote (buyback off the ask, sells off the bid) × a Black-Scholes ratio to the challenge, using the leg's own IV shifted -0.4 vol pt per +1% move (equity skew: vol eases as spot rises; buyback shift floored at 0). Estimates, not quotes; the live roll table owns the real decision when a CC is actually threatened.

🛡 Safer · sell 5 × $415 31 Jul 2026 (14d) · higher survival, lighter premiumroll menu if challenged ▾

Survival (stays ≤ $415)

90%

Touch odds

21%

Per cycle

$1,095

Income / mo

$2,346

Roll menuyour doors if the call gets challenged; each row = buy back the 5 calls + sell the new ones, one order. Prices assume the central case (day 7 of 14); earlier = worse credits, later = better, through the strike = add intrinsic

Buyback gross: $16.16/sh now → $11.43 mid-life (likely $9.78–$15.40) → ≈ $0 at expiry | you banked $2.19/sh, so a flat mid-life exit nets -$9.24/sh | roll rows are incremental, the banked premium stays yours

📊 Across 487 simulated challenges: the $415 strike is typically first touched on day 9 of 14, at $421 (overshoots $5.85). The [P25–P75] under each Total is that door's credit across those paths; % credit is the share of those challenges where the roll is a net credit.

Move	New strike ≈	New expiry	Tenor	Est net	Total (5 ct)	POP / surv of new CC
Roll out (same strike, buy time)	~$415	7 Aug 2026	14d left	+$1.02/sh	+$509 cycle +$1,604 [+$274…+$1,429] · 89% credit	67% surv 51%
Reliable up-and-out (highest cap still free ≥60%)	~$424	28 Aug 2026	35d left	+$1.21/sh	+$606 cycle +$1,701 [-$79…+$1,715] · 74% credit	72% surv 61%
Max even-money escape in the band	~$424	21 Aug 2026	28d left	+$0.16/sh	+$80 cycle +$1,175 [-$657…+$1,053] · 53% credit	71% surv 61%
Safety roll (pay small debit, max POP)	~$429	28 Aug 2026	35d left	-$0.36/sh	-$181 cycle +$914 [-$974…+$832] · 45% credit	74% surv 65%
budget: banked $1,095 debit $181 (17% used ≈ 0.3 wk of income) → whole cycle still +$914 cash · rolled 5 ct earn ≈ $4,744/mo while parked; 0 ct free to re-sell

⚔ FIGHT CC options · full candidate scan (37 clear the floor), click to expand

Every eligible strike x expiry in the 4-45 DTE band (6 expiries scanned, 37 clear the income floor), each sized to the minimum contracts that clear it. Sorted by survival (safest first): the primary 🎯 is the safest; rows below trade safety for income.

Fortress delta: 0.852 (IBKR) | Recovery@SS: +$1,252 (un-capped fortress gain if stock rallies to SS) | Do-nothing @ SS: $2,540

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$392.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$4.40	4/5	$7,543	$8,486	86%	90%	+$5,941	-$0	0.0%	$2,540 (vs do-nothing +$0)
$390	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.05	4/5	$8,657	$9,600	83%	88%	+$6,550	-$0	0.0%	$2,800 (vs do-nothing +$260)
$395	7d	24 Jul 2026	$3.85	5/5	$8,250	$8,250	81%	84%	+$3,653	-$0	0.0%	$2,265 (vs do-nothing $-275)
$385	7d	24 Jul 2026	$6.35	3/5	$8,164	$10,050	77%	85%	+$5,528	-$0	0.0%	$3,125 (vs do-nothing +$585)
$387.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$5.65	4/5	$9,686	$10,629	73%	79%	+$3,547	-$0	0.0%	$3,040 (vs do-nothing +$500)
$382.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$7.10	3/5	$9,129	$11,014	73%	83%	+$5,783	-$0	0.0%	$3,350 (vs do-nothing +$810)
$380	7d	24 Jul 2026	$8.05	3/5	$10,350	$12,236	69%	81%	+$6,155	-$0	0.0%	$3,635 (vs do-nothing +$1,095)
$385	14d	31 Jul 2026	$8.10	5/5	$8,679	$8,679	68%	76%	+$2,501	-$0	0.0%	$4,390 (vs do-nothing +$1,850)
$377.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$9.00	2/5	$7,714	$10,543	64%	79%	+$4,249	-$0	0.0%	$3,460 (vs do-nothing +$920)
$380	14d	31 Jul 2026	$9.75	4/5	$8,357	$9,300	64%	76%	+$3,324	-$0	0.0%	$4,680 (vs do-nothing +$2,140)
$380	21d	7 Aug 2026	$11.20	5/5	$8,000	$8,000	62%	73%	+$1,911	-$0	0.0%	$5,940 (vs do-nothing +$3,400)
$375	7d	24 Jul 2026	$10.00	2/5	$8,571	$11,400	60%	77%	+$4,326	-$0	0.0%	$3,660 (vs do-nothing +$1,120)
$375	14d	31 Jul 2026	$12.05	3/5	$7,746	$9,632	58%	73%	+$2,758	-$0	0.0%	$4,835 (vs do-nothing +$2,295)

Show 24 more candidates (lower strikes: more income, lower survival)

Strike	DTE	Expiry	Bid	Sell	Income/mo	Net/mo	Survival	POP (mid)	EV/mo	Cap Give-up @ CC-SS	%IC	Total P&L @ SS
$375	21d	7 Aug 2026	$13.50	4/5	$7,714	$8,657	57%	70%	+$1,716	-$0	0.0%	$6,180 (vs do-nothing +$3,640)
$375	28d	14 Aug 2026	$14.10	5/5	$7,554	$7,554	56%	70%	+$1,247	-$0	0.0%	$7,390 (vs do-nothing +$4,850)
$372.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$11.10	2/5	$9,514	$12,343	55%	75%	+$4,371	-$0	0.0%	$3,672 (vs do-nothing +$1,132)
$372.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$13.15	3/5	$8,454	$10,339	54%	71%	+$2,765	-$0	0.0%	$4,853 (vs do-nothing +$2,313)
$370	35d	21 Aug 2026	$18.50	5/5	$7,929	$7,929	52%	68%	+$1,534	-$0	0.0%	$7,820 (vs do-nothing +$5,280)
$370	28d	14 Aug 2026	$16.45	5/5	$8,812	$8,812	52%	67%	+$1,275	-$0	0.0%	$6,795 (vs do-nothing +$4,255)
$370	21d	7 Aug 2026	$15.65	4/5	$8,943	$9,886	51%	68%	+$1,638	-$0	0.0%	$5,624 (vs do-nothing +$3,084)
$370	14d	31 Jul 2026	$14.30	3/5	$9,193	$11,079	51%	68%	+$1,748	-$0	0.0%	$4,448 (vs do-nothing +$1,908)
$370	7d	24 Jul 2026	$12.30	2/5	$10,543	$13,371	50%	73%	+$4,380	-$0	0.0%	$3,412 (vs do-nothing +$872)
$365	42d	28 Aug 2026	$22.30	5/5	$7,964	$7,964	48%	66%	+$1,357	-$0	0.0%	$7,220 (vs do-nothing +$4,680)
$367.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$15.75	3/5	$10,125	$12,011	47%	69%	+$2,840	-$0	0.0%	$4,133 (vs do-nothing +$1,593)
$365	35d	21 Aug 2026	$20.80	5/5	$8,914	$8,914	47%	66%	+$1,407	-$0	0.0%	$6,470 (vs do-nothing +$3,930)
$365	28d	14 Aug 2026	$19.90	4/5	$8,529	$9,471	47%	66%	+$1,390	-$0	0.0%	$5,324 (vs do-nothing +$2,784)
$365	21d	7 Aug 2026	$18.55	3/5	$7,950	$9,836	46%	66%	+$1,353	-$0	0.0%	$4,223 (vs do-nothing +$1,683)
$367.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$13.50	2/5	$11,571	$14,400	45%	71%	+$4,265	-$0	0.0%	$3,152 (vs do-nothing +$612)
$365	14d	31 Jul 2026	$16.95	3/5	$10,896	$12,782	44%	67%	+$2,714	-$0	0.0%	$3,743 (vs do-nothing +$1,203)
$360	42d	28 Aug 2026	$25.20	5/5	$9,000	$9,000	43%	65%	+$1,382	-$0	0.0%	$6,170 (vs do-nothing +$3,630)
$360	35d	21 Aug 2026	$24.05	4/5	$8,246	$9,189	42%	64%	+$1,254	-$0	0.0%	$4,984 (vs do-nothing +$2,444)
$360	28d	14 Aug 2026	$21.85	4/5	$9,364	$10,307	42%	64%	+$993	-$0	0.0%	$4,104 (vs do-nothing +$1,564)
$360	21d	7 Aug 2026	$21.35	3/5	$9,150	$11,036	40%	64%	+$1,295	-$0	0.0%	$3,563 (vs do-nothing +$1,023)
$362.50	14d	31 Jul 2026	$18.05	2/5	$7,736	$10,564	40%	65%	+$1,639	-$0	0.0%	$3,062 (vs do-nothing +$522)
$365	7d	24 Jul 2026	$14.85	2/5	$12,729	$15,557	40%	69%	+$4,156	-$0	0.0%	$2,922 (vs do-nothing +$382)
$360	14d	31 Jul 2026	$20.05	2/5	$8,593	$11,421	37%	64%	+$1,812	-$0	0.0%	$2,962 (vs do-nothing +$422)
$362.50	7d	24 Jul 2026	$16.20	2/5	$13,886	$16,714	35%	67%	+$3,928	-$0	0.0%	$2,692 (vs do-nothing +$152)

Income/mo = FIGHT leg gross, DTE-prorated. Net/mo = FIGHT + conservative CC gross minus hedge cost. POP (mid) = probability stock closes at or below (strike + mid premium) at expiry, per-strike chain IV when available. Survival = CC expires fully worthless. EV/mo = premium minus expected buyback, monthly, with realized vol = IV x 85% (variance risk premium 15%). Cap give-up @ SS = recovery mortgaged on a V-bounce to SS, net of premium. Total P&L @ SS = absolute position P&L if the stock closes at SS; "vs do-nothing" = opportunity cost against holding all 5 contracts at the conservative CC.

fortress_fight.py v6.1 | 2026-07-17 01:47